BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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SRI IRE
Keep this run rate up all Day please -
@stuart-wallace-0 said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Going away for a few days now.
Any chance someone can make a note of the pre match, post toss odds and the odds at the half way point for both teams in the IPL matches for me please?
will be able to do on Monday and Tuesday. but working other days.
Gujarat v Mumbai...
GT MI
PreToss 1.94 2.08
AfterToss(MI win and bowl) 2.08 1.9
1 min B4 start 2.06 1.96
10 overs 84-2 1.69 2.42
HT 1.15 7.8For me, one thing this shows that there is a concrete strategy to exploit around the PreToss Lay ¨- just wish i could get it to work !
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forgot about this
but
SRI IRE
laying IRE and stake back higher odds on change of INNS would been easy -
I've had to take a break from in play trading - getting up at 5:00 to watch cricket, with work and a young family is taking its toll, and isn't sustainable for me.
Not giving it up, just heading towards more pre-match markets, using all the stats I have and are continuing to accumulate.
It's given me a chance to test the 1.1 automation: This is version 1 and at it's most simple - Lay at 1.1 and offset at 1.2.
Halfway through the IPL season (with a couple internationals) and results are breakeven, slightly lower than 50% strike rate which we sort of expected. ( I have missed to odd game here and there).For the remainder of the season I'll be trying version 2 - Lay at 1.1, 50 % out at 1.2, and 50 % out at 1.3.
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Sri layed draw 1.52
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@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Going away for a few days now.
Any chance someone can make a note of the pre match, post toss odds and the odds at the half way point for both teams in the IPL matches for me please?
Sunrisers v Delhi - DC won toss and chose to bat...
pre match post toss odds... SH 1.81 DC 2.26
HT ........................... SH 1.19 DC 6.6 -
@gavin-rumsey said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Not been able to catch enough of the games with work going on. Hopefully the summer brings plenty of UK evening cricket!
work always gets in the way - gonna ditch work for Dec/Jan and Feb and hopefully trade full time in sunnier climes
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SRI IRE
DRAW LAY 2.94
and again
DRAW LAY 2.12
and again
DRAW LAY 1.5 -
Not been able to catch enough of the games with work going on. Hopefully the summer brings plenty of UK evening cricket!
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Been quiet for a while
Checking in if sub 1.1 layers are rich
LSG v GT game -
@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Going away for a few days now.
Any chance someone can make a note of the pre match, post toss odds and the odds at the half way point for both teams in the IPL matches for me please?
will be able to do on Monday and Tuesday. but working other days.
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Going away for a few days now.
Any chance someone can make a note of the pre match, post toss odds and the odds at the half way point for both teams in the IPL matches for me please?
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@matt-ayles Cheers Matt,
Maybe i'm not explaining myself very well...
essentially i am trying to lay both side at 1 min before toss, with expectation of 1 side to drift and 1 side to shorten.
By laying both sides (lets say they are both 2.0), then 1 may drift to 2.10, and the other may shorten to 1.9.
Now, by laying both sides at 31 mins B4 toss then i am hoping to capture the side that shortens with a stop loss at 1.97, and then have an offset bet on other team to try to capture 10 ticks profit - thus 10 - 3 should equal a 7 tick profit.
However, what happens is that at 31 mins, one side shows green going north (what i would expect) , but the other team shows red going north (all before the Toss btw).
Now, this may be a usual betting 'rule' that i'm not quite understanding, but it is driving me insane.Normally, if you Lay one team, then the Green element is going North - however, i get 1 going green going north and 1 team going red going north !
Its driving me crazy.
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@matt-ayles yeah not quite dead rubber ha I got that wrong thought only 3 game series
Uppercut to self -
@stuart-wallace-0 I've been trying to wrap my head round your query.
From what i can see you're laying both sides at their opening marks (pre toss) and expecting both to drift? Or you're hoping to use a stop loss to prevent one going too far south whilst the other goes north.
The issue is you're laying one at odds against (i.e. over 2.0). In any 2 way market you can't lay both sides at the same point in time as one side will always be odds against which causes disparity between your potential returns... therefore the side showing green needs to move further than the side showing red in order to breakeven.
If you imagine, laying both sides at 2.0 causes a breakeven, both sides at 2.02 would result in a loss, and both sides at 1.99 would result in a profit. However at any given point in time the market does not show the same odds on both sides. Even in that graph you added in an earlier post they were both bouncing around the 2.0 mark but flip-flopped between 2.02 and 1.99 or so. Even the "to win the toss" market which is quite literally a coin flip, usually offers the chance to back either side at 1.99 so the bettor cannot back both sides and win...
Have you tried testing half the amount of ticks required on the odds against side? If your opening lay is 2.18 then you'd only need to get to 2.28 (not 2.38) to achieve the same green as the 1.85 to 1.95 on both sides of the market? At £2 if the both match you'd get 20p either side?
Ideally you'd need to lay (or back) both sides at the same number, then you wouldn't need the opposing bets but that won't happen pre match very often unless they're both close to 2.0 pre match and the outsider wins the toss...
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@nathan-bennett said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Didn’t bet but PAK NZ T20 dead rubber theory kicks in again
I did, but isn't it a 5 match series? It was a must win for NZ i thought.
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Didn’t bet but PAK NZ T20 dead rubber theory kicks in again
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SRI IRE
TEST
Don't mind backing draw these odds to try double money
eg 500@17 back then 1000@9 laybacked more @20
laying draw @9.4 to take all red out
actually made this
SRI GREEN
IRE GREEN
DRAW EVENthink could be more low lay swings on wickets / partnerships IRE can show some grit
ALL GREEN now @22
could be time to hold till next INNS launch 1.01 lay
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@martin said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 you have three bets matched on a two way market so you can green up either side
Thanks Martin.
I think i must be having a senior moment in this. if you look at the screenshot for todays example, there are 2 Lay bets matched. Therefore i would expect both teams to have potential green as prices go north. However, as you can see, Delhi start going into the Green when the price shortens, and Mumbai goes into Green when price lengthens, whereas i am expecting both teams to go into Green when Price lengthens (Bot concept being that upon Toss, one Team will shorten, and i can scalp a few ticks, and the other team will lengthen , which i will capture with the stop loss.) However, what i see possibly happening here, is if Mumbai win the Toss then their odds will shorten and go into the Red, and Delhi odds will lengthen and also go into Red. But, if its the other way around and Delhi win the toss then both teams will go into Green. Doesnt make sense as i have layed both sides.I get the feeling that i am missing something very fundamental here - for example, is this normal behaviour for laying both teams in a 2 horse race?
Am i missing something very obvious?
