BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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Trent Bridge hosts the women's Test match between England and Australia, starting today, and for me it poses a number of interesting questions.
Will there be a result? Normally I would say there's a very good chance of it being a draw. After all, England's last four Test matches have all ended in stalemates. But they've all been over four days, whereas this is the first women's Test over five days in 32 years, which makes it very difficult to predict.
Even so, with rain possible today and on Sunday, I would say the current draw odds of around 4.7 are much too high. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them trade much much lower than that at some stage of the match.
The biggest difference between men's and women's cricket at this level is the speed of the bowling. Even the fastest women bowlers are 15 to 20 mph slower than the quickest of the men. And that makes it much more difficult to winkle out the last few remaining wickets if the side batting in the final innings decide to shut up shop.
Are the Aussies too short at 1.7? I think they are. They're definitely favourites but odds on might be stretching it a bit. Inspirational skipper Meg Lanning is not on the tour and some of their stars are, I think, slightly past their peak; if England win the toss, bat first and post a decent total, I give them every chance of springing a surprise - especially if there's a bit of turn later in the game and the world's best spinner Sophie Ecclestone can work her magic.
It's going to be fascinating encounter and on which I'm pretty certain will serve up some juicy trading opportunities. If I spot them, I'll be sure to highlight them here. Good luck to all!
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AUS ENG W
Intrigued as what you all say about the weather
Wowee AUS 1.66 no thanks
Toss then trade perhaps -
Got my LTD first tranche in on girls game tomorrow though thinking of immediately backing out due to weather.
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Both games today my strategy was back the batting team if early wickets fell... which they did. Then i was able to exit at HT in the Ireland game and when Oman were 7-2 early in the chase. Ideal.
Amazingly at one point i think Ireland touched 1.04 and went on to lose...
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@David-Milligan and also if partnership hits 100 ish usually means trades going well and good idea take some risk back
ok
most red out now eyeing if my green looks around 70% of maximum to green up
this healthy at mo
and
if scot come back into and they go back into 1.5 favs before the above , might just take that profit and run -
@Nathan-Bennett great stuff thanks mate
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@David-Milligan hows things .., just taken some liability back
i'll be assessing trade in the 40's overs for next trade
very likely if SCOT 1.9's remove all red -
@Nathan-Bennett what sort of exit price are you hoping for Nathan? Got in at 1.38
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WCQualifier
IRE SCOT
LAY SCOT 1.4 till end closing overs this INNSTaken 1/4 liability back @1.65
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Some partnership to win that by AUS
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Draw flying in, presumbly as @Richard-Futter says, due to light... officially 21 overs to go, or 1 hour but what's the light doing?
When umps say no more pace that's a clear sign it's fading. Could be a swing somewhere but it would take a brave person to predict which way...
If the draw goes odds on with England needing just 1 wicket I'd be tempted to have a lay but with 3 needed I'm sticking with my green as is!
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@Richard-Futter great stuff, thanks again for all the advice!
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A draw not out of the question here with the light beginning to go - just short term scalps from me for the rest of the match. Nice green for the First Test - up next the Women's Ashes Test match; could be lots of opportunities there.
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@stuart-wallace-0 40 overs to go according to cricinfo, only 100 runs required. Should be easy at a run rate around 3... feel like England need wickets.
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Lots of easy scalping the draw price this afternoon; it's jumping up and down nicely between overs.
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Khawaja batting AUS into a bit of a hole - and putting pressure on his partner too.
Draw now becomes more of a possibility even with no weather breaks because of how slow Khawaja is.
Tempted to Green out . -
Travis Head showing a bit of weakness here with the short ball.
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AUS going nowhere here.
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@Richard-Futter said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 They have to bowl 67 overs so there's no point trying to slow the game down. Couldn't see that happening anyway to be honest.
Yeah, was thinking more along the lines of if there was another weather interruption (which seems unlikely now)
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ENG LAY 2.1
For a swing
4’s be good
Might lay more if market over reacts if Boland next out
