BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@Tony-Hastie How odd. Norwich has half the national average rainfall and is in the UK's top ten sunniest cities
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@Richard-Futter It rained almost the entire time I lived in Norwich...but apparently it wasnt the "right" rain to end an alleged drought! Sounds like the same sort of rain
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@Terry-Heller 4.0 on Betfair, 3-1 in bookies' terms
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@Richard-Futter said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Be interesting to see how far the draw price will drop here without a wicket falling. Anything 4 or under would be a great lay.
Just for my own clarification is that fractional or decimal odds?
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Be interesting to see how far the draw price will drop here without a wicket falling. Anything 4 or under would be a great lay.
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unreal fielding is this the west indies
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Rain stops play. Something of a surprise as there's none at all on the radar. Must be that very light drizzle which doesn't register on the charts; but it can be very persistent and stop play for several hours on occasions.
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Drat. Someone knocked on the door just before the toss!
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Also, cloud around all morning - could provide lateral movement.
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I think ENG should chase every game so this is good
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@Richard-Futter Thanks for the advice, will keep a look out
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Looks like the toss might be crucial on day one of the second Ashes Test at the home of cricket today. By all accounts, the pitch is tinged with green and we can expect early movement, so I'm guessing that whoever wins the toss will probably bowl first - almost definitely, I would say, if Ben Stokes calls right, especially with their battery of seam bowlers. And I'm certain the bowling team's odds will crash immediately. Could be some good profits to be made before a ball is bowled if we're quick off the mark.
As for laying the draw, it could be profitable but I'm reluctant to do that at prices approaching 7, considering there could be quite a bit of rain around tomorrow morning, which could well see the draw come in to a very layable price. Just depends what happens on day one, I guess.
Lord's is generally a results ground, but there have been a couple of draws there in recent years, so a degree of caution is probably advisable, although Stokes says, whatever happens, he won't be settling for a draw at any time.
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Draw price going North - currently 6.8. I managed to get my first tranche in at 5.6.
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Tongue in for Moeen as only change for ENG
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NZ v SRI W
NZ LAY @1.16
Only 29 over match
think odds stupid hopefully trade higher25% stake out @1.42 NZ
ok banking this greened up 1.42
INNS is deep enough and only 1 down
odds could possibly drop to SP for SRIs chase
could get involved again at stupid low oddsdamn leave it run till close INNS silly ha
still won well but have ballsed this from massive fill
SRI LAY @1.53
one wicket could slow things -
Wowee NED WI
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@Richard-Futter I also am absolutely gobsmacked by the amount of people prepared to back the draw in Tests. My thoughts are that maybe its scalpers trying to clip a few ticks, but ultimately, historically its a doomed long term strategy. Also, maybe BOTS where they havnt been programmed to deal with variables of weather,pitch,match ups etc.
As you, i'm not complaining.! -
Ok, Now on to next Ashes test starts on Wed 28th.
Weather looks good for all 5 days apart from a bit of rain on 2nd day morning.
Draw price currently at 5.9 , which looks a bit high, and may have a small 'correction' on 2nd morning.
Both sets of openers look very vulnerable (Khawaja apart) - i get the feeling that a similar type of pitch is
going to be prepared which will negate the likes of Anderson - however, if there is lateral movement, then obviously Jimmy will
come into his own.
To me, Lay the batting side for first hour of first morning or so then re-assess.Be aware of my earlier comments about Lords having a history history of draws with some 11 out of last 32 games drawn - ok, this is a large sample size, and recent developments such as Bazball has reduced the percentage in recent years.
One other thing about Lords (which is probably why there have been so many draws) is that the pitch tends to flatten out the further into the game, so, days 3,4 and 5 are still good tracks. -
Good profits there. Australia deserved winners although, as I thought before a ball was bowled, they were definitely too short at 1.6. And as it turned out they did trade as high as 10.
Also once again the draw traded way way too low. To be odds on after just two days was a ridiculous price. Never ceases to amaze me how many people are prepared to back the draw in five day Tests, whether men or women. I guess it's so easy to assume the match will carry on in the same fashion throughout the whole 5 days, but 9 times out of 10 that doesn't happen.
One does need to have patience - and of course there will come a time when it doesn't pay off - but generally speaking LTD in Test matches where the rain is not a major factor is the goose that just keeps on laying those golden eggs.
Time now to look ahead to what should be another cracking Ashes match at Lord's in just a couple of days. Can't wait.
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$$$$
Onto weds hurry up
