BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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Dumb wicket early
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Just throw a thought out there---- the 'bouncer war' shows that its hard to score runs with fields set out... could this be a good time to have a 'peanut' as Nathan says on backing draw ?
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I've layed England for a partial stake already, then will drip more in if England start well.
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Good point from KP... ENG bowling short at Lyon... could have been hit in helmet and said he has concussion, and then AUS get a replacement player !!
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@Matt-Ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Can you not have a runner these days? Otherwise Lyon coming out is silly...
No, change of law a couple of years ago, no runners allowed. As Richard says , only for concussion replacement.
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Right, now for a quick start from Englands openers
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These odds are amazing to watch! Down to 2.88 now. Expect it will go lower when Eng get the last wicket...
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Can you not have a runner these days? Otherwise Lyon coming out is silly...
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@Adam-Cubbage here's the highest ever chases, already be the 13th of all time, think it's value to lay but could lose of course like anything: http://www.howstat.com/cricket/statistics/Matches/MatchRunChasesHighest.asp
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@Matt-Ayles nice! thanks for the insight.
Just starting to have a look at trading cricket, preferably just test cricket so you will probably see a few more questions coming from my direction -
@Adam-Cubbage tremendous question.
We have seen it before where a team chasing a large total starts well and goes odds on, only to fall well short...
They're 3.7 now as i type this so shows the punters are already worried...
If you check the highest chases that @Martin shared, statistically they're unlikely to chase this total even now... not saying they cant, it's just unlikely...
So anything less than 3.0 (or even odds on) would be good value in my opinion.
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@Matt-Ayles what odds would you be looking for if England start well?
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I was just about to ask for thoughts on LTD as it was down around 5.4 but it’s now gone back to around 8.
I would imagine AUS will either be bowled out or declare before EOP. Will ENG play for the draw? Is it worth risking going 2-0 in the series
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@Matt-Ayles If they could take quick wickets England could certainly do it. Which is why I find it unbelievable they haven't taken the new ball. It's overcast and reasonably warm so you would expect some movement with a fresh pill. Almost looks like they're bowling for a draw, but I'm guessing they're banking on the Aussie batsmen running out of patience.
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@Richard-Futter so they're restricted to Head/Smith for spin options? Makes the chase a little more possible... but as we know, record chases don't happen often...
Is draw the best England can hope for?
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@Matt-Ayles Simple - no replacement allowed. Only applies in the case of concussion.
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What are the rules in regards a replacement for Lyon?
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What are the rules in regards a replacement for Lyon?
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This short ball stuff is dreadful. Umps really should do something about it. And why no new ball? Mike Brearley is in the stands. Perhaps he could come on to skipper for a couple of hours!
