BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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imo, draw on the cards - rain likely on 3 of 4 remaining days . took my medium loss on draw. just waiting.
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@Nathan-Bennett yeh won't be laying SA at current price, was thinking close to 2.0 if it gets there.
Scoring in the carribean tends to be slower and WI will know by the end of today whether they have any chance of a win. If SA are still batting by end of today, WI just shut up shop I feel. Avoid follow on and almost no chance of a result.
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@Fraser-cord With bugger cricket being played on this deck I'm going to hold any LAYS on SA at the mo . Be very tempted lay them 1.7 range or toward end of there batting INNS for a swing
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If SA's run rate is slow also monitor , perhaps a lay of them maybe wise -
@Nathan-Bennett I have taken a red on the draw, saw it was 1.95 so cut my losses, already back at 1.8. Cant see it back above 3.0 without a big SA wobble. Agree, could steam in if little action in 1st 30 mins today.
Very tempted on SA lay also. Theory being SA need 400 to be secure, will need all day as scoring is slow. Forecast has Fri am dry, probably some disruption pm but Sat could be a washout and some disruption Sun. Not sure there's enough time to dismiss WI twice on a pitch not offering much. And any WI fight with ball or bat pushes price in favour too.
Will see how the 1st hour goes today then assess.
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WI SA
Unsure what to do here
Tempted to take small loss and hope draw steams in and say f it and lay 1.5's hard -
Annoying forsure
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@Nathan-Bennett well, that went pear shaped.
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Draw easing nicely
Good to see green before ball bowled -
I totally missed there was this series, cheers all for flagging it up
Currently in Belgium (a betfair is banned zone) but hopefully back in time for the start. If price currently around 3.0 for LTD, seems good but yeh draws here before. Il be laying there if I can get on at the start. Could drop quite a bit early on too.
I'm pretty sure last time WI played for the draw from day 2 here having been hammered by India in 1st test (and saved by rain). I reckon they will fancy this having played well in England, SA not played as a proper test team for a while now. Enough to suggest teams will be positive.
I agree @Stuart-Wallace, equivalent of 4 days play should at least give opportunity for draw to trade well above 3.0, maybe even a result fingers crossed
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@Stuart-Wallace yeah I saw the draw stats were quite high, which helps explain the low price, I've already taken out some liability at 3.25. I'm scalping/monitoring with the aim of trading out after clusters of wickets etc.
Another angle I'm looking at is the SA price, might be worth a small lay to trade, WI lost 3-0 here but they didn't look too bad, just messed up in decisive moments.
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@Stephen-Hancox Yes, my thoughts too.
From my experience of being in the Caribbean, it rains most afternoons for 30 mins max and then play is back 30 mins later - so with the extra play available, i think we should get at least the equiv of 4 days play in.
Ive taken a Lay position at 2.94.
Be aware that there have been 4 draws in last 7 matches at POS (with one weather affected) - however the 10 matches before that all provided results -
@Nathan-Bennett just looked on UK met office and BBC weather, they seem to think sunny with heavy showers most days. My feeling is there will be more play than not, I've taken a LTD at 3 to start with and monitor.
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WI SA
any port of Spain weather gurus -
@Nathan-Bennett It was a small window of opportunity wasn't it, glad you managed to profit from it.
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ENG WI
1.06 is low enough to lay however not to sure of the two at the crease at the moment
Weird but keener to lay when another wicket falls at shorter odds -
@Stephen-Hancox good call on the price WI to back .., i followed this got something out of it while was out cheers
Did make sense -
@Stephen-Hancox good start!
Correction - incredible start!!!
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I've put small stakes backing WI at 5. Eng 3 down already, my thinking is a couple of wickets before lunch and Eng would still be well behind and 5 down, so 5 seems a good price, I'll be monitoring closely to remove liability, England batting last so every chance it's a close test unless Eng dominate today
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I took a red on IRE vs ZIM, even at 5 down, expected IRE to push on. Took that last wicket stand to save quite a bit too. ZIM Price will only come in today unless IRE go through the top order fast.
Going to take a break for now, and be back for SRI series unless something clear pops up in ENG vs WI
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Looking at graphs WOW ENG as low as 1.05 far out
