BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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Any thoughts of the draw price for PAK vs BAN. Sitting below 5 currently (very encouraging). Il be out the country from tomorrow so can't access betfair from roughly tea on day 1.
Gone through BAN recent tests, very little evidence they can bat 200 overs over 2 innings. A draw here between PAK and AUS but all others results. Could easily see PAK put up a huge score and only need to bat once.
Very tempted just to LTD as set and forget.
A little rain forecast days 4/5, nothing major. But looks like a downpour tomorrow morning so could be a delayed start. Will probably wait until the start in the hope the price comes in a little if the start is delayed.
Won't be touching ENG vs SRI as looks like rain could be a factor too so would need to actively monitor this one.
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WI SA
Mental day 1
Wasn't involved sadly some low odds lays been nice
However
Surely a lay of SA 1.34 and another in the 1.2's if happen could provide a dividend
1.34 lay is on -
Tricky to to pay attention to this test .., sub 1.10 would of been profitable
Spew semi missed this
Mainly through too much red already ha
Left my screens with 100 green on a result and 400 red if draw
Pray ha
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Encouraging to see Sri Lanka performances against IND all be it a different format confidence is there heading into ENG tour -
Ditto
Have had a LAY @1.39
Hopefully SA bat swiftly and get out and WI 5/80 be nice -
Have re-entered at 1.39 - figured it cant go much lower until day 5
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draw now below 1.5
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Draw price has been lively between 1.67 and 1.8 all morning, just been scalping. Overall, feels like a draw likely so building green towards the draw.
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Scalp the draw on wickets / partnerships maybe show dividends
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imo, draw on the cards - rain likely on 3 of 4 remaining days . took my medium loss on draw. just waiting.
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@Nathan-Bennett yeh won't be laying SA at current price, was thinking close to 2.0 if it gets there.
Scoring in the carribean tends to be slower and WI will know by the end of today whether they have any chance of a win. If SA are still batting by end of today, WI just shut up shop I feel. Avoid follow on and almost no chance of a result.
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@Fraser-cord With bugger cricket being played on this deck I'm going to hold any LAYS on SA at the mo . Be very tempted lay them 1.7 range or toward end of there batting INNS for a swing
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If SA's run rate is slow also monitor , perhaps a lay of them maybe wise -
@Nathan-Bennett I have taken a red on the draw, saw it was 1.95 so cut my losses, already back at 1.8. Cant see it back above 3.0 without a big SA wobble. Agree, could steam in if little action in 1st 30 mins today.
Very tempted on SA lay also. Theory being SA need 400 to be secure, will need all day as scoring is slow. Forecast has Fri am dry, probably some disruption pm but Sat could be a washout and some disruption Sun. Not sure there's enough time to dismiss WI twice on a pitch not offering much. And any WI fight with ball or bat pushes price in favour too.
Will see how the 1st hour goes today then assess.
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WI SA
Unsure what to do here
Tempted to take small loss and hope draw steams in and say f it and lay 1.5's hard -
Annoying forsure
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@Nathan-Bennett well, that went pear shaped.
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Draw easing nicely
Good to see green before ball bowled -
I totally missed there was this series, cheers all for flagging it up
Currently in Belgium (a betfair is banned zone) but hopefully back in time for the start. If price currently around 3.0 for LTD, seems good but yeh draws here before. Il be laying there if I can get on at the start. Could drop quite a bit early on too.
I'm pretty sure last time WI played for the draw from day 2 here having been hammered by India in 1st test (and saved by rain). I reckon they will fancy this having played well in England, SA not played as a proper test team for a while now. Enough to suggest teams will be positive.
I agree @Stuart-Wallace, equivalent of 4 days play should at least give opportunity for draw to trade well above 3.0, maybe even a result fingers crossed
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@Stuart-Wallace yeah I saw the draw stats were quite high, which helps explain the low price, I've already taken out some liability at 3.25. I'm scalping/monitoring with the aim of trading out after clusters of wickets etc.
Another angle I'm looking at is the SA price, might be worth a small lay to trade, WI lost 3-0 here but they didn't look too bad, just messed up in decisive moments.
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@Stephen-Hancox Yes, my thoughts too.
From my experience of being in the Caribbean, it rains most afternoons for 30 mins max and then play is back 30 mins later - so with the extra play available, i think we should get at least the equiv of 4 days play in.
Ive taken a Lay position at 2.94.
Be aware that there have been 4 draws in last 7 matches at POS (with one weather affected) - however the 10 matches before that all provided results -
@Nathan-Bennett just looked on UK met office and BBC weather, they seem to think sunny with heavy showers most days. My feeling is there will be more play than not, I've taken a LTD at 3 to start with and monitor.
