BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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NZ ENG
DRAW BACKED @15.5 av price
Flip @8ās thinking
ā¦
Chipped away drip lays before second wicket
Decided that will do first hour
Take the cash
Greened @12 -
I'm struggling to read draw markets at the moment. Generally any starting price above 10 is high, but of late we are getting them 15+. But my bigger concern is how slowly they are dropping into single figures.
Last AUS test was wild but would expect draw to come in from 5 overs onwards if no wickets fall. But was instances of ENG vs WI in the summer when it didn't move at all after 15 despite WI scoring very slowly. I see NZ draw has come in quite a bit today. I backed the AUS draw in 1st test expecting the same and it shot out. So not confident what will happen.
Only move I'm certain on is LTD if no weather issues. Just trying to find an acceptable price incase things go wrong. I always aim for 5.0 but am definitely pricing myself out. So going to be increasing that given how high the draw keeps trading.
Thought WI vs BAN had a genuine chance at a draw but after 3 days was still trading at 7 despite little to suggest wickets would come, and was still over with ages to spare. And that venue is draw central.
Hope I'm wrong but maybe the markets starting to realise draws so unlikely.
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@Jonathan-McDaid It's a bit way off for me to assess. I ensure draw price is below 10 before I take a nibble on laying. Starts 6th Dec I think so early next week I'll assess and also check weather etc ask time goes on.
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NZ ENG
Gets underway tmr morning
Pretty keen to Back the draw for a swing if NZ bat first
Monitor angles as the test unfolds -
Upcoming test Aus v Ind in Adelaide is a day night test and the pink ball is a guarantee for wickets, no rain around and weather in the 30's. The draw is currently at 12.50 what is everyones thoughts on a play ?
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PAK ZIM
ZIM RUNS Backed over 154
...
Dumb ha
These lose almost everytime i post -
AUS IND
IND 1.03 LAY
See if can get 10 ticks -
@Tony-Hastie predictive text again, was supposed to be 40 all out!!!
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@Fraser-cord so much for 40-0
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@Nathan-Bennett oh man. Was up at 5am and only 14 was taken. So didn't queue below 10. Was expecting to wake up at 7 with price maybe close to 10, not in 20s!
Had to take a small loss now as India look like they will declare FFS.
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@Stephen-Hancox surely impossible chase
the went into 7's think -
Yeh it's still a difficult one to fully read.
For AUS win, has to be time to score 500 + at 3-4 an over. Hence I need India to keep batting, and make that impossible. Only way draw gets back close to 10 and swaps places with AUS win price.
If it looks like AUS have time to chase, their odds will definitely drop. Like most chases this big, true odds and actual odds very different so definitely a margin of value. I'd be nervous on AUS win at too big a price though, would probably want it 6/7. Wonder how low it would get with a 40-0 start?
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I missed the overnight draw price, but I'm interested in the Aus win price. A wicket or 2 soon and goes below 10 then the chase is a tough ask isn't it
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Any ideas how low the draw went. Got matched at 12. Looks like that India mid order collapse might have ruined my chance at a big green there, about break even as things stand.
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AUS IND
Appears to be negative bowling by aus to limit run scoring till new ball
Draw coming in
Unreal from trading as high as 1000Ok
Having a IND LAY at the price 1.16
Want 1.4's be superb -
I'm waiting for draw price below 10 to lay again. I need to get involved with the 8 down trades.
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@Nathan-Bennett cheers. Yeh makes sense, if India bat most of tomorrow (hopefully into day 4), will be well over 400 ahead, almost impossible for an AUS win. Draw has to come in as AUS win goes out.
Side note, overs came in again 8 down for WI. They are experts at it.
Was going to go in 9 down too, target 451, but got distracted, just aswell, they declared at 450! -
@Fraser-cord pitch will get worse under the 34 degree heat conditions
hoping IND bat and bat and bat would love them to be batting into early day 4
Surely anything in single figures just start drip lay / monitor -
I backed the draw at 20 before the start, realised what was happening and tried to withdraw at 20 early on day 1. And the 2nd wicket fell during the 5 second betfair delay of my cash out. Couldn't believe it. So just left it and gave up on the cash as wickets went. Amazed where it's at now as I get up today.
Going to hold it and hope the draw dips into green now.
Wish I was able to see all those other angles, real skill indeed @Nathan-Bennett.
Any thoughts on how low the draw could get @Stephen-Hancox/ @Nathan-Bennett
