BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@richard-futter said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
Having a little lay of WI at 1.79 here - just feel it could be much tougher than it looks for the side batting last.
dripping out already moving out with no wicket!
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@richard-futter I don’t think England are close to being out of this test.
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I'm not usually able to watch a test match in England from start to finish and never traded cricket. Been following this one closely. Lockdown does have some advantages
Seeing the approach in here as well as watching the odds to see how they reacted to each key event have been an eye opener. Thanks for everyone who has been posting.
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Having a little lay of WI at 1.79 here - just feel it could be much tougher than it looks for the side batting last.
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@luke-ridger that was easy in and out
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Draw price is insane . No draw here
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I wonder if backers of the draw simply just are not paying attention. They don’t think thru the concept of making up time or pitch deteriorates. They seem to almost be like “well it’s been raining must be a draw then”. Personally I’m happy to take advantage of their naivety since they it is now clear. Never learn.
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@luke-ridger said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
For what it's worth in England,
for a draw to happen in England you need atleast 120 overs + lost, the draw is 3% chance unless that happens.
That is such brilliant intel mate.
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@nathan-bennett If forecast is good for a full 5 days, you will not see a draw in England.
Weather affected it starts to change but roughly 13% chance normally with some rain around.
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@Luke-Ridger OUTSTANDING INFO
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For what it's worth in England,
for a draw to happen in England you need atleast 120 overs + lost, the draw is 3% chance unless that happens.
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Draw goes through a cycle , wickets first innings draw will go out, if team batting second scores more, draw comes in as it assumes pitch is better....... we then get the situation we had yesterday. I maxed liability so wasn't an odds on draw layer but people also forget time gets made up so we have extra overs if we lose overs to weather.
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@richard-futter def lay the draw first then back latter is better allways
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@richard-futter people panic don't they, I think it's when emotions take over and we are basically able to benefit from that!
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Won't be a draw, but I love to see an even amount of green across all possible outcomes. It never ceases to amaze me how - despite all the evidence - the draw is still so massively overbet in Test cricket. For the draw to be priced at 1.76 with around 10 hours of cricket to be played on a deteriorating pitch makes no sense at all. I'd love to know who all these bettors are who are backing draws at odds on are; I'd be sending them all a Christmas card every year!
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@james-woodroffe draw went out to 14 ppl who layed at 2 then backed at 14 would be happy
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@ricky-hounsome hey mate, I can’t see the test ending in a draw. Someone is gunna win.
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@luke-ridger As a West Indian, nothing is secure. WI are famous for losing matches from winning positions
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Is it worth cashing out on the draw (laid at 5) or just let it run and hope the game isn’t drawn?
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Really happy with my return from this test and lessons learned. Closed out now healthy green a win for either side isn’t going to make that much difference to overall profit. Will go back on notes I made about how I traded the test and look forward to improving.
