BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@richard-futter
what is target for exit on this lay Richard? Are you looking to get a price swing or just scalp a few points? -
@james-woodroffe said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
Have missed England at 1.86 but the draw has come in again. Think I’ve missed the value of laying Eng but not draw thoughts?
I’d say wait and see. No need to enter at the moment, should have plenty of opportunities over the coming days.
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@richard-futter smart move wickets slow rate maybe all contribute to Eng drift day 1 . Cheers
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Have missed England at 1.86 but the draw has come in again. Think I’ve missed the value of laying Eng but not draw thoughts?
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@simji said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
So does a few early wickets or a good part worship make the draw shorten or drift?
Drift
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@simji normally early wickets will make the Draw drift but I think it will be fairly stubborn and only significantly drift if Eng are bowled out and WI lose a few by close of play. Any decent partnership will see the Draw come right in, and probably won’t shift Eng’s value that much.
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@richard-futter yeah TMS has convinced me to put a tiny amount on Eng under 325 runs.
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England batting line up looks shaky to me...... relying a lot on Root (who doesn't like batting at 3) and a semi-fit Stokes. Conditions very humid, so got to have a lay of England at 1.86. Relying on WI to bowl better than they did last week though!
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Guess they had to choose to bowl, extra bowler and batsman light. WI will clearly play for the Draw, I think all the focus will be on Eng and how quickly they bat today, to see how much they are willing to risk to win the series. Wait and see approach with Trading.
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WI add a spinner and choose to bowl odd/intrigue
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@richard-futter Yep Windies fielding.
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Looks like the side winning the toss may bowl first, so gonna hold fire for a little while.
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Not sure where to start with this game --- the radar could be our greatest friend with all sorts likely to happen to the draw price according to when the rain arrives.
But I do think whoever wins the toss will bat, as today is likely to be the best time to make steady runs.
I would expect the odds of the side batting first to tumble; especially if it's England.
Also, as today it's worth looking at how the pitch plays early on. If it looks like there's any help for the quicks, the draw price could conceivably shoot out pretty quickly.
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I’ll probably have a quiet day, looking at the main market towards the end of the day. Ideally I’d like to see 10 wks today to keep the Draw price out, with more opportunities to trade over the weekend. If there are less than 5 wks I can see the Draw coming right down to 1.7 by Tea, and limited opportunities to trade it over the weekend.
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As always Luke cheers . Potentially fair few short term trades until later in test
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@luke-ridger Overs expected to be lost around 160 , so we really are on the cusp .
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Loosely, my plan is;
Lay draw today, maybe some nibble in the deck with the moisture about, will look to back the draw in the last session some when.
Draw low enough now to lay and see how it fairs.
It does look like we may sneak a result in this test.
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@jpm i backed at 2.80 and got out at 2.60 earlier had a bit of green before jump
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Very intrigued to see what most thoughts are . initially weather I'm not local so will check in here for updates and do best to check info elsewhere . as far as long term trade very much like what @Luke-Ridger mentioned about loosing 120 overs draw becomes possible so an indicator of sorts there . have no doubt with what have noticed last tests the draw will be on the move at points throughout . day 1 i may even look to back the draw on wickets get in out and out say back 100@4 and lay 100@3 and so on just because of day 2 threat of rain build equity this way to start out . all about how i feel early think
