BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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Had a little lay of the draw at 3.2 - so that dropped catch was well annoying!
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@jon-m that seems like a sensible approach. LTD is a short term up to lunch tick stealing exercise. I saw in the last test how much any rain can move the goalposts, despite the fact there was next to no chance of the draw actually coming to pass.
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Hi Richard, I'm interested to know in this situation if you actually place a back bet on Pakistan pre game as we are unsure who will be batting first at this stage, or do you wait for the toss before placing a position.
Cheers
Greg -
Current plan is to back the Draw on the stroke of lunch. Looks like rain from 2pm and I can see some wickets fall this morning, so that strategy seems fairly risk free.
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Up and down like a yo-yo
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Draw laid before morning coffee at 2.86 and now 3.15 before the 2nd one.
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Goes back to the forecast i suggested but have monitored weather patterns and Southampton have been missing a lot, if the test was in Old trafford this week, it would be a stick on draw. Humid conditions mean that the bowling side does have some good assistance. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw an early finish today around 4 ish, then 3 good days. Monday can still change.
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Draw @ 2.82.
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@nathan-bennett hope you’re right mate! (Sure you are). Just looked at the weather again. First 3 days look really really ok. 4th day some interruption. 5th day problematic. Enough for a LTD price of 2.96/3.. pff no chance. I’m in there.. couple of early wickets maybe and hey presto..
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keep those weather updates coming ha, market s**t itself players step on pitch on time . also think if wickets wont take long for draw to trim down some as per usual so hopefully good equity building day 1
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@dean-adams cheers mate appreciate it.
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The forecast has gone from 5 days of possible rain to 3 bone dry and sun/mon wet, back to some rain on most days. Price has been up and down a bit. Scalped a tiny bit of green
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Super excited to get into this test tomorrow after a few days of R&R and turning the trading brain off. Really keen to capitalise on what I’ve been learning since the restart. I’ve just noticed and I dunno how much the Met Office forecast has changed in the last 5-6 hours since @Richard-Futter posted but has the forecast improved to what it was? I know when I checked a few days ago Tomorrow looked pretty bleak and driving home the forecast where I live 30 miles from Southampton looked ordinary as however in the couple of hours I’ve been home not so much now. Just wondering if the current 3.15 for the draw looks great value to lay early doors?
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Could be some cracking value laying the draw during this Test. Under 3 is a very good place to start, because we're talking thunderstorms generally, which are usually pretty short lived. Test match grounds these days all have excellent drainage so I'll be quite surprised if huge amounts of time are lost.
The Met Office highlights the chance of rain every day, it's true, but always at less than 50% at any one time, so I'll be keeping a very close eye on the Netweather Radar.
When there is rain, the draw price inevitably tumbles, but there's nearly always a sizeable rebound and if you can get anywhere near the bottom you're quids in. I've made some of my biggest profits doing just that in matches where rain is prevalent.
Looking at other odds, Pakistan look high at 4.7. They were slightly too cautious when in a winning position at Old Trafford, but they nearly always come out punching when they've been beaten.
Once again, I would expect the team winning the toss to bat first. And if it's England there's a good chance their price will shorten accordingly.
Going to be another fascinating match I reckon, for both traders and cricket lovers alike.
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@dean-adams said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
Just out of interest how many ticks do people generally leave between each lay when drip laying
If laying the draw, I often use quite small amounts but drip one tick at a time
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Just out of interest how many ticks do people generally leave between each lay when drip laying
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Thanks @andrew-wooding
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@dean-adams no not really mate. Looks patchy first 3 days but a little more sustained days 4/5. Think the play here is to take some early value laying the draw. Then asses the situation day by day.
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Met office suggesting rain on and off all 5 days now. Any other sources suggest anything different?
