BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@james-woodroffe Yea that helps loads, thanks.
Think I should do some reading and then watch how the markets move on this one. But if there is such a low chance of a draw I can see this being a way to make some good green.
Loads of punters put money on test matches, my brother included in that
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@james-woodroffe it does thank you. Just the lack of confidence in my position which comes from experience.
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@matt-wood hey mate they will shorten more than likely the longer England bat. Currently 4.60 if they lose quick early wickets it will blow out to (hypothetically) let’s say 7.60.
Given the incredibly low percentage of test matches that end in draws we want England to bat well today and for that draw price to shorten. With rain forecast for a bit of tomorrow it will likely shorten more. Baring in mind that they make up time lost over the course of the test match you need to have a LOT of rain and overs lost to really make the draw feasible. The West Indies have to also bat last which is never easy. Test matches can turn rapidly and there are lots of opportunities over 5 days to lock in green. Hope that makes sense. -
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Morning all.
Been reading through this thread as trading cricket might be something I look into. I know nothing about the rules of cricket, will need to read a bit first, but I understand most of what is being suggested here.
Am I correct in thinking that the draw odds should increase slowly over time if England do well today, but they will increase quickly if there is a batting collapse?
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@james-woodroffe thanks james. Glad there is consistency with others the way I’m trading this. Guess I just wanted some reinforcement that the draw isn’t Linley to actually happen!
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@andrew-wooding hi mate. I’ve laid the draw already and expect it to shorten more so pretty happy in the knowledge that it will be red screen so I can lay again as it shortens but no rush. Obviously if England collapse we will be able to green up and look to enter the market again later as the test evolves.
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@nathan-bennett glad my thoughts on this are validated by yours. As an inexperienced trader you get twitchy as I already have a sizeable liability on the draw from yesterday. Just looking for some reassurance from more experienced members I guess that whilst it might go red before green, that sticking it out is the right thing to do?
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yep with ya there if no early wickets then time and runs just put WI right out of it .., with that draw overall could shorten some till eng say 7-8 down and impending change of innings .., i am thinking of holding just a little longer before laying draw. nothing wrong with a lay now as some of lads have started too ... scalping wickets could prove dividends with solid runs on board already
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Morning everyone.. big day and first session me thinks. Draw is priced at 5. Are we still confident laying is the value here?
England get a big total, windies are obstinate in response.. bit of rain tommorow.. those odds tumble as only 2 outcomes to this test match become viable. -
@luke-ridger well it's looking unlikely now, so most likely a loss here. England have got well on top here.
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The thing about WI is they are very used to slow spinning wickets back home, and they just have this idea stuck in their heads that England is all for fast bowling without realizing some of the pitches there are flatter nowadays. As a result they go all in with pacers and a part time spinner just like what they did last year in the world cup , not a single specialist spinner which was foolish. Instead of using guys like Chase and Nurse, I would much prefer to see Devendra Bishoo back, or above all Sunil Narine.
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@paul-keighley thanks so much for clearing this up for me. i was very confused about it
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Entered also at 4.90 with a LTD
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@sameer yes I’ve laid the draw now the odds have come in. Ty Richard for your guidance on that earlier
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@richard-futter said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
Draw into 4.9.... drip laying it downwards.
How you divide your stake when you drip lay & what percentage of your bank roll you use in laying the draw?
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Draw into 4.9.... drip laying it downwards.
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I'm currently unders on 275/300/325 .
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@ricky-hounsome hey mate, looking back over the posts. Please accept my apologies if it was me and my comment re cricket betters. If it was it most certainly wasn’t my intention to appear to slate your decision to lay England or looking at the draw market. My comment was aimed at general punters and not traders mate and how we can take advantage. (Why indeed would England be so short) If it wasn’t me I’ll feel better if it was sorry again wasn’t my intent.
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@nathan-bennett said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
any weather around gents day3 seems possible stoppages . just thinking ahead to how low the draw may go
According to the radio, might be a delayed start on Saturday - and you can always rely on a bit of rain in Manchester - but nothing that's likely to have a major impact.
