BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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Draw laid before morning coffee at 2.86 and now 3.15 before the 2nd one.
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Goes back to the forecast i suggested but have monitored weather patterns and Southampton have been missing a lot, if the test was in Old trafford this week, it would be a stick on draw. Humid conditions mean that the bowling side does have some good assistance. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw an early finish today around 4 ish, then 3 good days. Monday can still change.
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Draw @ 2.82.
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@nathan-bennett hope you’re right mate! (Sure you are). Just looked at the weather again. First 3 days look really really ok. 4th day some interruption. 5th day problematic. Enough for a LTD price of 2.96/3.. pff no chance. I’m in there.. couple of early wickets maybe and hey presto..
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keep those weather updates coming ha, market s**t itself players step on pitch on time . also think if wickets wont take long for draw to trim down some as per usual so hopefully good equity building day 1
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@dean-adams cheers mate appreciate it.
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The forecast has gone from 5 days of possible rain to 3 bone dry and sun/mon wet, back to some rain on most days. Price has been up and down a bit. Scalped a tiny bit of green
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Super excited to get into this test tomorrow after a few days of R&R and turning the trading brain off. Really keen to capitalise on what I’ve been learning since the restart. I’ve just noticed and I dunno how much the Met Office forecast has changed in the last 5-6 hours since @Richard-Futter posted but has the forecast improved to what it was? I know when I checked a few days ago Tomorrow looked pretty bleak and driving home the forecast where I live 30 miles from Southampton looked ordinary as however in the couple of hours I’ve been home not so much now. Just wondering if the current 3.15 for the draw looks great value to lay early doors?
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Could be some cracking value laying the draw during this Test. Under 3 is a very good place to start, because we're talking thunderstorms generally, which are usually pretty short lived. Test match grounds these days all have excellent drainage so I'll be quite surprised if huge amounts of time are lost.
The Met Office highlights the chance of rain every day, it's true, but always at less than 50% at any one time, so I'll be keeping a very close eye on the Netweather Radar.
When there is rain, the draw price inevitably tumbles, but there's nearly always a sizeable rebound and if you can get anywhere near the bottom you're quids in. I've made some of my biggest profits doing just that in matches where rain is prevalent.
Looking at other odds, Pakistan look high at 4.7. They were slightly too cautious when in a winning position at Old Trafford, but they nearly always come out punching when they've been beaten.
Once again, I would expect the team winning the toss to bat first. And if it's England there's a good chance their price will shorten accordingly.
Going to be another fascinating match I reckon, for both traders and cricket lovers alike.
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@dean-adams said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
Just out of interest how many ticks do people generally leave between each lay when drip laying
If laying the draw, I often use quite small amounts but drip one tick at a time
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Just out of interest how many ticks do people generally leave between each lay when drip laying
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Thanks @andrew-wooding
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@dean-adams no not really mate. Looks patchy first 3 days but a little more sustained days 4/5. Think the play here is to take some early value laying the draw. Then asses the situation day by day.
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Met office suggesting rain on and off all 5 days now. Any other sources suggest anything different?
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@nathan-bennett good thx mate. Yourself?
Cheers for replying in detail. I just got matched @2.8 which I’m happy with. As I read it (meteorology not a passion of mine), it’s Sunday and Monday which see the most disruption (please anyone correct me if wrong!). Therefore draw backers are looking at the whole test and making a judgement on that. Fact that we’ll get 3 days play prior to Sunday says to me, that logically once the action starts the price will drift.
Take your point about how many overs would need to be lost etc. I guess like most with inexperience comes the fear of shooting your self in the foot, even if you think your thought process is rational!! -
@andrew-wooding how's things . historically yes ! as far as conditions and current market how it reacts i can't call it for certain . two of the most experienced lads on here luke ridger and richard flutter been doing test cricket trading for very long time . one comment of lukes some time back mentioned for a draw to be a strong result in England basically need up to 120 overs lost in a test and even then its still only a 13% chance of happening (close to that believe even if not quite word for word) . So when the weather maybe poor this could be good indicator to hold on to those lays .. #bitofanovel
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@nathan-bennett any value laying at 3.0 day before the off?
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@jon-m well if you get any more inklings my good man don’t be shy
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@andrew-wooding said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
@martin-futter I won on this one Martin thx to Jon’s tip. TBH it was a bet rather than a trade because the lay price was so high until the very end you couldn’t trade it if you wanted to really. Was just exceptional value as a back price.
Yes, I’d agree liquidity is v poor so you can’t really do proper trading, but I enjoy following the matches and occasionally a price stands out that I back. Helps my mind tick over between the Tests.
