BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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Thank you Team Futter! That’s given me some great info to build on, to keeping plugging in with T20’s. Onwards and upwards!
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@richard-futter Outstanding
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There's going to be an awful lot of T20 cricket in the coming weeks. The Caribbean Premier League has already started, the Blast in the UK begins next week, there are internationals between England and Pakistan on the horizon - and the Indian Premier League finally getting off the ground next month.
So I thought I'd give a few pointers as to how I tend to trade these matches, during their various phases:
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The first few overs are quite difficult to trade before a pattern is established, and I tend to go for what I call the "double figure" strategy. Basically I wait until both batsmen have reached 10 or more and then back the batting side. I keep stakes low and don't get too ambitious; I generally take out most of the red when I'm 10-20 ticks in profit and leave a little in if I feel the batting side looks strong. If a wicket falls I obviously accept the loss but over the years I've found that the successful trades strongly outweigh the failures. I would only use this strategy for the first 15 overs of an innings as in the latter stages wickets can often fall in clumps.
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The latter stages of an innings offer some great chances of bouncebacks after a wicket. As has already been mentioned in some earlier posts, the market often overreacts to a wicket, which in the grand scheme of things might not make a huge difference to the final score and it doesn't take much to send the market into a quick reverse.
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The second innings. I would again employ the "double figure" strategy, although I would lower the stakes as you tend to get bigger moves with both runs and wickets.
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The final overs. My very favourite time. More often than not I will have a decent amount of green in the bank and can put in a very low lay knowing that whatever happens I won't lose overall. I generally look for a lay around the 1.03-1.05 mark, especially if it's the bowling side who are favourites. In the various domestic T20 leagues virtually every team has lower order batsmen quite capable of launching a few sixes or fours which send the price shooting upwards at a rate of knots. The price quite regularly rises to 1.2, 1.3, 1.5 or even 2 on occasions.
I hope this of some help to people. A warning though: T20's can be a real roller-coaster ride, so don't overstake. I keep my stakes to between 10-25% of what they would be in a Test Match.
Also look out for the "marquee players" - ie. the really highly rated stars of the the league. Leg spinner Rashid Khan is one - the price of the bowling side tends to come down when he comes on to bowl. And when batsmen like Kieron Pollard or Andre Russell are out the market can often continue to go against the batting side for some time.
So, take a look at the matches and markets to see how the various factors move them. You will note familiar patterns along the way and develop profitable strategies of your own I'm sure.
Good luck to everyone.
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From a newbie perspective, watching the traded price charts has been a good indicator. I can see how the over-reaction of the market after a wicket can be profitable. You just have to be on it sharp. Amazing how it shoots out then recovers so quick!
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@jon-m I know Richard looks for low odds to lay, so when a team still has every chance to win but market is already pricing them way out of it
Cricket
Entry:
At start if underdog is big odds and being underrated
If team you want to back has just lost a wicket – often ticks can be gained before the next ball is bowled, or one boundary will shoot price in your favour (this works well with underdog as if two quick wickets you will not get too damaged laying at heavy odds on)
At the start of second innings (ODIs) when market has written off either side completely (works better with evenly matched sides and below 1.1 price)
In a test match when draw is heavy odds on after only one day (check weather but as my old man has always said no-one ever got poor laying the draw in test cricket!)Exit:
When market has gone too far in your favour
I exit quickly a lot of the time as cricket can swing the other way quickly
Drip backing your lay back bit by bit works very well -
@andrew-wooding said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
@jon-m Martin & Jon. I’d like to jump on this bandwagon and completely back up from my own experience, that T20’s are frightening quite frankly. Yes I can see the brilliant potential if you get it right, but get it wrong and you’ll take a kicking.
I know there are going to be defined pinch points on when to enter and when to exit, but it would be incredibly useful if a tutorial or guide could be put forward, giving specifics on how experienced people do their analysis, and explaining WHY they do what they do, not just how. I for one would be all over that should it be a resource I could go back to time after time. I could also see it being a big draw for new members to BTC.
Just my thoughts of course.Me too! That’s exactly what I need, I’ve been looking for T20’s trading tutorials and struggling to find them. Anything like Andrews suggestion would be extremely useful. BTC is a great site, though for me the content is weighted too heavily towards football, and there’s not enough for cricket traders.
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@jon-m Martin & Jon. I’d like to jump on this bandwagon and completely back up from my own experience, that T20’s are frightening quite frankly. Yes I can see the brilliant potential if you get it right, but get it wrong and you’ll take a kicking.
I know there are going to be defined pinch points on when to enter and when to exit, but it would be incredibly useful if a tutorial or guide could be put forward, giving specifics on how experienced people do their analysis, and explaining WHY they do what they do, not just how. I for one would be all over that should it be a resource I could go back to time after time. I could also see it being a big draw for new members to BTC.
Just my thoughts of course. -
@martin-futter thanks Martin. I’d say I’ve ‘got the hang’ of Test trading which suits my style, but matches can be few and far between, so to take my trading to the next level, I really need to work on T20’s. My general strategy with Test’s is 1) trading the weather/conditions and 2) identifying moments in the match when wickets are likely to fall. I rarely back a team to score runs, as I lose my nerve and have messed positions up as/when wickets fall.
With T20’s I just can’t get the hang of it. I think it’s probably because I’m in my Test strategy mode, where T20’s is much more about making runs. I really struggle to read the pitch & conditions, identify the opportunities in a match where a team is wrongly priced, how the next period of play is likely to go, and T20’s seem much more of a lottery than the certainly of the longer format. Very frustrating as I’m fairly successful with Tests, and equally unsuccessful with T20’s!
Any help would be very much appreciated!
Jon
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@jon-m I wouldn’t imagine Caan would know much about cricket beyond entry level, he is a horse guy from what I’ve seen, so personally would avoid that one.
Don’t know the other guys so can’t comment.
What is it you want to learn in particular? We could probably save you some money and help
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Can anyone recommend a good cricket trading book to buy? I’ve seen these two:
https://caanberry.com/product/cricket-trading-guide/
https://thesportstrader.com/product/cricket-trading-ebook/
Any thoughts / recommendations? I don’t want a guide to be too basic as I think I’m beyond that level, though I know I need to learn a lot more to develop my cricket trading, especially in the shorter formats.
Thanks,
Jon -
@nathan-bennett said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
Praying for 400 overs 3rd test !!! Anyone have a crack CPL was at work and chimed in for something when tridents 3/20 , classic 1.23 - 2.20 was a good wage ..
Layed both at 1.4 both matched so bit of profit
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Praying for 400 overs 3rd test !!! Anyone have a crack CPL was at work and chimed in for something when tridents 3/20 , classic 1.23 - 2.20 was a good wage ..
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@sajjo-lohar brilliant mate thanks so much.
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Hi Guys , Im sorry in advance for this post which might be kinda long and boring. In terms of strategies, I am completely new to cricket trading so I am learning from your experiences.
But I am quite knowledgeable about the CPL as its our tournament . I have followed our regional cricket for the last 20 years and I know these players well, having played with and against some of them also .
It is known to be the biggest party in sport but unfortunately this year is quite different as all matches are played in Trinidad with no cheering fans. The matches in Tarouba, not far from my village are not generally very high scoring because there is help for bowlers but its also even paced. Matches in Queens Park Oval are higher scoring but that pitch helps spinners more.Trinbago Knightriders will be favourites as they know local conditions better. Also their squad has big names such as Dwayne Bravo, Kieran Pollard, Sunil Narine, Lendl Simmons and a few other decent spinners. They have also won the most times (3) and start off slow but always peak in knockout matches.
Barbados Tridents are the current champions. They also have key players such as spinners Rashid Khan, and a few decent all-rounders. And many flexible players who can chip in when needed, such as Holder, Ashley Nurse, Shai Hope.
Guyana Amazon Warriors have been very consistent over the years they have been runners up 5 times but never won. Last year they won 11 matches unbeaten to the final, but lost in the final . Guyana pitch is the most spin friendly in the world and their batsmen (think of Chanderpaul, Sarwan, Hooper, etc) are also excellent players of spin , but this tactic wont work this year as no matches are in Guyana. Their squad is not that strong but they always punch above their weight a bit like NZ in world cups. Look out for Pooran, Hetmyer, and Imran Tahir.
Jamaica Tallawahs was in some disarray with the recent problems between Chris Gayle and Ramnaresh Sarwan , and they also lost Marlon Samuels. However they have the worlds best T20 player in Andre Russel. The captain Rovman Powell is decent so is Carlos. They also got dangerous spinners in Mujeeb, Permaul and Lamichanne. Very strong bowling squad, but batting a bit weak.
St Kitts Nevis Patriots were supposed to have Gayle but he dropped out so its a big loss, same with Fabian Allen, but they can still surprise. Main players will be Evin Lewis, Chris Lynn especially if they open together, Denesh Ramdin still the best wicket keeper in the region , and Sheldon Cotterall.
St Lucia Zouks are led by Daren Sammy who is very experienced and popular, He manages to get the most out of his players. Overall probably the weakest squad ( and historically have the worst record) but main players will be Chase, Rakeem Cornwall, Andre Fletcher and Mohammad Nabi .
Generally the teams with more quality batsmen (not hitters , because all West Indian players are big hitters) and better spinners go far. Pace bowlers dont do much here. CPL is all about 6s and quality spin . But as said before this year will be unique because of the Covid conditions sp anything can happen really. Sorry again for this very long post but I hope this can probably give some help in case anybody wanted info about players they didnt know too well .
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@nathan-bennett good advice thx mate
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Any thoughts towards the next test with the current draw price? Seems like rain is a possibility, which I assume is already priced in?
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@andrew-wooding not something I've often applied its more of a statistical thing if your happy to let this strat run throughout and entire game and or not watching and just want to gamble .. I like to be aggresive when enter and look to get my red out as fast as possible and assess . often games start with teams $2 a piece there's many different ways to double your money in a game of t20 the times I've done my dough often is when trading from the off so i tend to hold to wait for scenario i like ... you'll learn a lot just from market observation aswell .. im sure others have ways of doing things never a science to it just experience of losing and winning a sussing what works for you
