BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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IRE ZIM
think there's some value to lay ZIM @4.6
Taking stake back at 12's and monitor
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Really suprised market didn’t move faster towards double figures during main partnership
Now two down IRE market suspect stale around the fives for a while -
@Fraser-cord i got in at 4.7 , out at 22.
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IRE vs ZIM
Well none of today went to plan, hopefully someone got on a sub 3.0 draw lay. May lose a little play tomorrow afternoon and perhaps the same Sunday, probably not enough to bring a draw lay back in. But clearly it's an option if the price allows. Will need to see how IRE bat 1st.
Might try a draw back to lay to start tomorrow if the sun is out.
ENG vs WI
All prices currently way off, rain forecast on sat pm, might get a draw lay in later in the test. Probably only starting play would be an ENG lay if the price gets around 1.1 early on.
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@Nathan-Bennett draw came in really fast didn't it. Expected a bit more from Irelands bowlers given they chose to bowl
I'm going to back the draw just before lunch (hopefully get a wicket by then). Rain forecast early afternoon, hopefully shorten the draw a bit.
Rain hasn't come, bailed from draw back for very small green. Can't see it coming in significantly for here
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IRE ZIM
Draw steaming in hard
Only a small back on the SP after toss @4.9
Letting it ride till later INNSMonitoring for other angles
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If ZIM got odds on that would be one and be laying -
@Stuart-Wallace I'm no professional however I'm planning on scalping at the top of the order (especially in the womans).
Il monitor the 1st couple of games to check markets respond the same as the mens.Got the world's best batters vs local bowlers in some match ups. Big disparity between the batters in womans, worked well in womans big bash. From last year, tends to be boundarys in powerplay, often overs 3-5. Avoid Kapp bowling (takes loads of early wickets).
Not as sure on the men's but probably scalp favourable match ups and lay chasing teams hunting large totals.
Always open to new ideas too.
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100 Strategies !
Does anyone have any strategies for 100 ?
Must admit, i have tended to steer clear of these in the past, but now we have a wee bit of data i might have a look.
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@Tony-Hastie I generally check as many different ones as I can.
Can often get weather reports for the ground. Then check local area too.
I know some folk have radar that are really accurate, not sure how you get that and at what cost.
It's suggesting most rain Friday but some Thurs and sat too.
https://www.worldweatheronline.com/cricket/civil-service-cricket-club-stormont-belfast-weather/gb.aspx -
@Stuart-Wallace yeh I saw the graphic on sky. No coincidence with more t20/one day matches that teams score faster. Great for us.
I guess it's just making sure you get an OK price too. Say you go in at 10 and suddenly something happens, price can drop fast and facing a big loss. Do the same at 6, not going to hit as hard.
But definitely, weather is the main factor to monitor. -
@Fraser-cord The main thing is, the way ENG play, that their games very rarely go into day 5 without weather interruptions. Sky showed a graphic of the declining rates of draws compared with 20 years ago (think it was about 14 per cent now), if you keep a close eye on the weather then LTD is a regular winner
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@Nathan-Bennett said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
IRE ZIM
No liquidity at the mo
Keen for a draw back to lay tho at the starting price if any rain aroundhopefully that will grow once we get closer to Thursday - draw now at 4.9.
One thing to be aware of is that Belfast wont have the effective drainage system that all English Test match grounds have - so any interruptions will likely be for longer. -
The forecasts Ive looked at show very little rain on them. Is there a goto forecaster that is maybe more accurate than others?
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IRE ZIM
No liquidity at the mo
Keen for a draw back to lay tho at the starting price if any rain around -
@Stuart-Wallace yeh, weather not looking great at this stage in Belfast. Both sides are a bit unknown, I was hoping for a guaranteed 4.5 days minimum to be confident on a draw lay here.
Maybe someone on here knows a bit about Irish pitchs and both sides bowlers?
Will need to wait and see what ENG 11 is selected and if WI fancy a fight (hopefully yes), so we can get something from that one too.
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@Martin said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@Tony-Hastie don't worry it will happen again and again and again, the market will never learn
Totally agree. Still maintain the 'eye test' suggested a little more caution on this one although everyone expected WI to fold (but not as fast or as weakly as that given how good the pitch was).
However the price would of been exactly the same had the ball been moving all over the place and it was impossible to bat. Such value, and it's available so often in Tests.
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Third Test already out on Betfair - draw starting at 15. Starts Friday.
Better value almost certainly is IRE v ZIM Test which starts on Thursday - draw currently 5.5 with potential for a little rain on Thursday and Friday but clear thereafter. Not sure ZIM batters will deal with the Irish weather too well.
EDIT : its actually in Belfast , and the weather looks worse. -
@Tony-Hastie don't worry it will happen again and again and again, the market will never learn
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@Martin I almost laid them at 5s but got distracted by the horses!
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@Tony-Hastie said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Windies have a record total to chase, would hoping they get a good start then laying them be the play here? Currently at 8.2...
Still shocks me the market offers single digits in these situations, like they have no idea how rare it is for a team to chase anything near 400
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@Tony-Hastie as I said, you should definitely lay WI with every penny you have, they will crumble in no time at all. What do I know.
Pity for the game as it could have been really exciting tomorrow. Might not be a day 5 now.
