BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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Trying a lay of the draw at a tasty 2.4..... second hour of the day often brings a wicket or two, and I just think it's far too short in any case
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2.46 to lay the draw just after drinks on day 1. Wow.
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@nathan-bennett village.
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no words
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Great insight, I’ve made many mistakes in the past backing the side barring first. Thanks Richard
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@gregory-emblin no; I wouldn't back the side batting first early on, as wickets can tumble fast and you can find yourself with a huge red if you're not careful. I tend to work on the draw early on, laying the majority of the time. I like to build up a little green on the first day, then build on it in the subsequent innings. There could be storms but still looks like they'll be short-lived to me and I reckon the draw will trade very high in this match over the coming days.
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Had a little lay of the draw at 3.2 - so that dropped catch was well annoying!
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@jon-m that seems like a sensible approach. LTD is a short term up to lunch tick stealing exercise. I saw in the last test how much any rain can move the goalposts, despite the fact there was next to no chance of the draw actually coming to pass.
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Hi Richard, I'm interested to know in this situation if you actually place a back bet on Pakistan pre game as we are unsure who will be batting first at this stage, or do you wait for the toss before placing a position.
Cheers
Greg -
Current plan is to back the Draw on the stroke of lunch. Looks like rain from 2pm and I can see some wickets fall this morning, so that strategy seems fairly risk free.
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Up and down like a yo-yo
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Draw laid before morning coffee at 2.86 and now 3.15 before the 2nd one.
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Goes back to the forecast i suggested but have monitored weather patterns and Southampton have been missing a lot, if the test was in Old trafford this week, it would be a stick on draw. Humid conditions mean that the bowling side does have some good assistance. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw an early finish today around 4 ish, then 3 good days. Monday can still change.
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Draw @ 2.82.
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@nathan-bennett hope you’re right mate! (Sure you are). Just looked at the weather again. First 3 days look really really ok. 4th day some interruption. 5th day problematic. Enough for a LTD price of 2.96/3.. pff no chance. I’m in there.. couple of early wickets maybe and hey presto..
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keep those weather updates coming ha, market s**t itself players step on pitch on time . also think if wickets wont take long for draw to trim down some as per usual so hopefully good equity building day 1
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@dean-adams cheers mate appreciate it.
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The forecast has gone from 5 days of possible rain to 3 bone dry and sun/mon wet, back to some rain on most days. Price has been up and down a bit. Scalped a tiny bit of green
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Super excited to get into this test tomorrow after a few days of R&R and turning the trading brain off. Really keen to capitalise on what I’ve been learning since the restart. I’ve just noticed and I dunno how much the Met Office forecast has changed in the last 5-6 hours since @Richard-Futter posted but has the forecast improved to what it was? I know when I checked a few days ago Tomorrow looked pretty bleak and driving home the forecast where I live 30 miles from Southampton looked ordinary as however in the couple of hours I’ve been home not so much now. Just wondering if the current 3.15 for the draw looks great value to lay early doors?