BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@matt-wood said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
Morning all, can anyone tell me why betfair takes 5% on the cricket when im on the 2% plan (they take 2% on my footy)?
you sure you are still on that rate? maybe raise with CS
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@nathan-bennett I was hoping so sadly there’s been an alarm failure this morning and I’ve woken to 9 down
poor from SL this morning. -
@james-woodroffe do we get 1.20?
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Lay of South Africa at 1.03 has seen a nice green position as the odds move out as SL settle here. They will also have the best of the batting conditions tomorrow. Captains knock Karunaratna would be nice.
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Shan Massood and one of the all time great reviews
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Interesting to note the low scoring nature of Hagley Reserve for teams over the past few tests. Like most NZ venues it really does suit the seamers over the first couple of days. Interesting to note that it also appears a bit of a bogey ground for Kane Williamson who’s struggled there more recently.
Once again tho looks like a win toss and send opposition into bat scenario. -
@alastair-todd said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
@martin-futter I'm an absolutely COMPLETE novice when it comes to trading cricket but have been fascinated by how well Darri and James Woodroffe have been doing on the cricket recently. Having read your strategy on laying the draw, it says that "the draw will often be priced between 3.0 and 4.0". I have just had a look at the next 4 tests on Betfair and they are all priced between 6 and 8. Have I missed something, have things changed, or is it just these particular matches that are much higher prices?
Yeah that's a good target price not necessarily always going to be BSP, on the flip side you will get tests where draw is evens at start.
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@james-woodroffe Thanks James, that's really helpful. I'll probably keep an eye on it to start trying to add another string to my bow (particularly after last night's Liverpool debacle!). Anyway, thanks for your time, well done with your brilliant results and happy new year!
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@alastair-todd hey mate, I can’t speak for Martin obviously but your question is a good one. I think and I could well be wrong that it is slightly old but also if you’re talking tests in England where weather can be a factor then yes you’ll get the draw at those odds before a match. However if you’re talking the Southern Hemisphere at this time of year the prices you’re seeing are pretty accurate mate. Hardly any rain drastically reduces the chances of a draw and sometimes given the match ups that makes sense. The key to laying the draw in tests is just waiting and if you can get 4’s give or take late on day 2 or early day 3 then awesome. Some tests don’t give you that option to lay the draw but they are a bit rare as you only need 1 team to bat really well to see that price come in. For example the last Aus v India test didn’t really give a LTD option but the tests in SA and NZ threw up a couple. I hope that makes sense, Martin will let us know if I missed something but the 3 tests starting next week those draw prices are about right but it’s 5 days and crazy stuff happens on a well prepared pitch.
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@martin-futter I'm an absolutely COMPLETE novice when it comes to trading cricket but have been fascinated by how well Darri and James Woodroffe have been doing on the cricket recently. Having read your strategy on laying the draw, it says that "the draw will often be priced between 3.0 and 4.0". I have just had a look at the next 4 tests on Betfair and they are all priced between 6 and 8. Have I missed something, have things changed, or is it just these particular matches that are much higher prices?
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@sameer said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
@sameer said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
having a lay at 1.18 of nz,you never know but still 14 overs to go
removing liabilty at 1.41,let free run trade now
nice work!
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Nerve wracking end to that BBL match. Backed Brisbane in the 10th over but Riley Meredith struck and pushed Brisbane out to something like 3.85 and was hovering around my stop loss. Held my nerve and was being offered 3.6 points green. Took it as Meredith came back into bowl his last over despite having removed liability. Tie was obviously laid and somehow Brisbane conspired to lose and miss the super over by millimetres. Happy with the green the getting out on Meredith last over cost me some more but found it a tough match to read so happy to take some green regardless.
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@sameer said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
having a lay at 1.18 of nz,you never know but still 14 overs to go
removing liabilty at 1.41,let free run trade now
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hmm also light theres one massive cloud haha ... anyway what a test 2/3 on the NZ AUS SA tests for profit #next
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yup 100 balls to duck and dodge done same small round down on draw take if miraculously hits 3 ABORT HIA COULD BE DONE
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having a lay at 1.18 of nz,you never know but still 14 overs to go
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@nathan-bennett said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
cricket at its finest
Draw laying again fruitful
