BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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On the money @Richard-Futter
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Apparently the wind will be gale force from one end of the ground which will make bowling difficult. The pitch expected to be quite soft, so wouldn't expect Wood or Archer to play. If England win the toss and bat, their price will certainly shorten quite a bit.
Normally I would be happy to lay the draw at 4.... but after the weather of last week and with a few showers expected, I'll be treading with care until later in the match.
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According to net weather we get 3 decent days in anyway. Monday chance of rain and Tuesday is prob a washout.
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@jon-m prob a new way to delay things ha.., expect usual market stuff early . pretty good seeing $4 at mo draw for a SP expect when goes in play this market to trim after few overs(standard stuff)and fire in lays bang ! win toss and bat and bat well win ... def a wait and hold 30-45mins
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Friday’s forecast is a v windy day. Anyone have any insights into how that could affect the Test?
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@andrew-wooding said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
Speaking of which how are we are feeling bout the 3rd test. Where’s the value?
Errr... too early to say though I’d like to see Pak bat first and put on a 300+ score.
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Speaking of which how are we are feeling bout the 3rd test. Where’s the value?
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@richard-futter brilliant and thanks very much. Apologies if this has been mentioned before but England and Pakistan have agreed to earlier start times 10:30am in case we have problematic weather like in the previous test.
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@sajjo-lohar 100% on the spin bowlers pitches hard to bat on and if trying to slog not bat coming un done
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Fantastic. Thx Richard & Martin. Your insight and guidance is invaluable!
This really is a great community with those with experience willing to help those without it. Brilliant.
Let’s try and see how we get on. Thx again. -
Thank you Team Futter! That’s given me some great info to build on, to keeping plugging in with T20’s. Onwards and upwards!
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@richard-futter Outstanding
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There's going to be an awful lot of T20 cricket in the coming weeks. The Caribbean Premier League has already started, the Blast in the UK begins next week, there are internationals between England and Pakistan on the horizon - and the Indian Premier League finally getting off the ground next month.
So I thought I'd give a few pointers as to how I tend to trade these matches, during their various phases:
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The first few overs are quite difficult to trade before a pattern is established, and I tend to go for what I call the "double figure" strategy. Basically I wait until both batsmen have reached 10 or more and then back the batting side. I keep stakes low and don't get too ambitious; I generally take out most of the red when I'm 10-20 ticks in profit and leave a little in if I feel the batting side looks strong. If a wicket falls I obviously accept the loss but over the years I've found that the successful trades strongly outweigh the failures. I would only use this strategy for the first 15 overs of an innings as in the latter stages wickets can often fall in clumps.
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The latter stages of an innings offer some great chances of bouncebacks after a wicket. As has already been mentioned in some earlier posts, the market often overreacts to a wicket, which in the grand scheme of things might not make a huge difference to the final score and it doesn't take much to send the market into a quick reverse.
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The second innings. I would again employ the "double figure" strategy, although I would lower the stakes as you tend to get bigger moves with both runs and wickets.
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The final overs. My very favourite time. More often than not I will have a decent amount of green in the bank and can put in a very low lay knowing that whatever happens I won't lose overall. I generally look for a lay around the 1.03-1.05 mark, especially if it's the bowling side who are favourites. In the various domestic T20 leagues virtually every team has lower order batsmen quite capable of launching a few sixes or fours which send the price shooting upwards at a rate of knots. The price quite regularly rises to 1.2, 1.3, 1.5 or even 2 on occasions.
I hope this of some help to people. A warning though: T20's can be a real roller-coaster ride, so don't overstake. I keep my stakes to between 10-25% of what they would be in a Test Match.
Also look out for the "marquee players" - ie. the really highly rated stars of the the league. Leg spinner Rashid Khan is one - the price of the bowling side tends to come down when he comes on to bowl. And when batsmen like Kieron Pollard or Andre Russell are out the market can often continue to go against the batting side for some time.
So, take a look at the matches and markets to see how the various factors move them. You will note familiar patterns along the way and develop profitable strategies of your own I'm sure.
Good luck to everyone.
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From a newbie perspective, watching the traded price charts has been a good indicator. I can see how the over-reaction of the market after a wicket can be profitable. You just have to be on it sharp. Amazing how it shoots out then recovers so quick!
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@jon-m I know Richard looks for low odds to lay, so when a team still has every chance to win but market is already pricing them way out of it
Cricket
Entry:
At start if underdog is big odds and being underrated
If team you want to back has just lost a wicket – often ticks can be gained before the next ball is bowled, or one boundary will shoot price in your favour (this works well with underdog as if two quick wickets you will not get too damaged laying at heavy odds on)
At the start of second innings (ODIs) when market has written off either side completely (works better with evenly matched sides and below 1.1 price)
In a test match when draw is heavy odds on after only one day (check weather but as my old man has always said no-one ever got poor laying the draw in test cricket!)Exit:
When market has gone too far in your favour
I exit quickly a lot of the time as cricket can swing the other way quickly
Drip backing your lay back bit by bit works very well -
@andrew-wooding said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
@jon-m Martin & Jon. I’d like to jump on this bandwagon and completely back up from my own experience, that T20’s are frightening quite frankly. Yes I can see the brilliant potential if you get it right, but get it wrong and you’ll take a kicking.
I know there are going to be defined pinch points on when to enter and when to exit, but it would be incredibly useful if a tutorial or guide could be put forward, giving specifics on how experienced people do their analysis, and explaining WHY they do what they do, not just how. I for one would be all over that should it be a resource I could go back to time after time. I could also see it being a big draw for new members to BTC.
Just my thoughts of course.Me too! That’s exactly what I need, I’ve been looking for T20’s trading tutorials and struggling to find them. Anything like Andrews suggestion would be extremely useful. BTC is a great site, though for me the content is weighted too heavily towards football, and there’s not enough for cricket traders.
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@jon-m Martin & Jon. I’d like to jump on this bandwagon and completely back up from my own experience, that T20’s are frightening quite frankly. Yes I can see the brilliant potential if you get it right, but get it wrong and you’ll take a kicking.
I know there are going to be defined pinch points on when to enter and when to exit, but it would be incredibly useful if a tutorial or guide could be put forward, giving specifics on how experienced people do their analysis, and explaining WHY they do what they do, not just how. I for one would be all over that should it be a resource I could go back to time after time. I could also see it being a big draw for new members to BTC.
Just my thoughts of course. -
@martin-futter thanks Martin. I’d say I’ve ‘got the hang’ of Test trading which suits my style, but matches can be few and far between, so to take my trading to the next level, I really need to work on T20’s. My general strategy with Test’s is 1) trading the weather/conditions and 2) identifying moments in the match when wickets are likely to fall. I rarely back a team to score runs, as I lose my nerve and have messed positions up as/when wickets fall.
With T20’s I just can’t get the hang of it. I think it’s probably because I’m in my Test strategy mode, where T20’s is much more about making runs. I really struggle to read the pitch & conditions, identify the opportunities in a match where a team is wrongly priced, how the next period of play is likely to go, and T20’s seem much more of a lottery than the certainly of the longer format. Very frustrating as I’m fairly successful with Tests, and equally unsuccessful with T20’s!
Any help would be very much appreciated!
Jon
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@jon-m I wouldn’t imagine Caan would know much about cricket beyond entry level, he is a horse guy from what I’ve seen, so personally would avoid that one.
Don’t know the other guys so can’t comment.
What is it you want to learn in particular? We could probably save you some money and help
