BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@Martin said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@Tony-Hastie if you try it let us know how you get on! Seems mad to me they bother to have a different format, T20 would be bigger if they did it with cities imo.
I'm beginning to love the Hundred format now - for watching anyway, if not trading. As we already have the T20 Blast which keeps the counties going financially, it's good to have something a bit different.
I know what you mean about cities, but we're very different from India or Australia where cities are quite far apart. If there were a Newcastle team say, absolutely nobody from Sunderland or Middlesbrough would ever dream of supporting them.
Would you support a team called Ipswich? Not a City of course, but you get the point... NO NO NO!
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@Stuart-Wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@Tony-Hastie I tried the Lay 1.4 Strategy but found i got very few hits. But this wasnt in 100 ball games - might be worth a try.
100 ball has different nuances to the game ie. 5 ball 'sets' (not 6 ball overs), a bowler can bowl 2 'sets' consecutively, and there are other subtle changes to rules , for example, batsmen crossing when caught in the deep for example is one (the new batter has to face the next ball), but essentially , its the same game as 20 over stuff.The cross-over rule with the new batsman having to face the next ball (unless the previous player was out to the last ball of the over or 10 balls at one end in the Hundred) has applied to all forms of cricket since last October. A good rule change IMO.
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@Tony-Hastie I tried the Lay 1.4 Strategy but found i got very few hits. But this wasnt in 100 ball games - might be worth a try.
100 ball has different nuances to the game ie. 5 ball 'sets' (not 6 ball overs), a bowler can bowl 2 'sets' consecutively, and there are other subtle changes to rules , for example, batsmen crossing when caught in the deep for example is one (the new batter has to face the next ball), but essentially , its the same game as 20 over stuff. -
@Gary-Calvert Some real good stuff there Gary, yes, of course both teams wont be over 2 in white-ball.
I determine the Toss time by invoking the BOT 31 mins before start time.
With Fairbot, i can use the current price, and maybe look to factor that in to the rule. -
@Tony-Hastie if you try it let us know how you get on! Seems mad to me they bother to have a different format, T20 would be bigger if they did it with cities imo.
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Both teams traded below 1.5 last night (I would assume that is not standard for 20/20 or 100 ball cricket) but maybe 1.75 could be? Given how quickly the market skews on a wicket or a boundary, it would just take an early wicket or couple of boundaries to match one side, then you have the whole of the game for a momentum swing to match the other?
There is a cricket strategy on the site laying both teams @ 1.4 in a 20/20 match...which begs the question, would this work on a 100 match as well?
I thought the 100 was just the name of the cricket comp, not a completely different format of the game(dont slate the foreigner!). Its only 20 balls less per innings than a 20/20...are there any significantly different rules that might get the odds moving differently?
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@Stuart-Wallace
Hi StuartI am not using same bot so dont know about the staking, there will be a thread on that bot on here somewhere where you could ask that question. I looked at the win probability because like you I was trying to work out how much 1 tick was worth.
I havent tried your strategy, I work full time so never around for the toss. My strategy was to lay any team/draw if they hit 1.5 and green up when price drifts, I was a couple of points up until this afternoons game when Welsh Fire price didnt drift so now back in the red, I am thinking I need to add a stop loss in there somewhere. It might be what I am trying to do is a lot safer in test matches than these short games.
Also if you are looking for both teams over odds of 2 then you will only find that in test matches when the draw is factored in.
If you was going to run this automatically how do you know what time the toss takes place?
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@Gary-Calvert yeah it's not worth using sim mode is it, I use £1 stakes when testing and accept the strategy may lose a few quid but worth it to know if it works or not.
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@Richard-Futter said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Don't think we'll get any play at Lord's either.
Are there rules on this, for example play must be in the 3 hour slot from start time, or can they wait until the evening if no men's match scheduled after?
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@Stuart-Wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
thought id check out liquidity for the televised 100 game tonight - Trent Rockets v Southern Brave.
Currently over 10 million matched at half way point - incredible.Yeh i was watching last night and studying the odds. Got me thinking, do we think there is value in laying both sides below 2.0 for example on these games, similar to laying the field in horse racing?
Both teams traded below 1.5 last night (I would assume that is not standard for 20/20 or 100 ball cricket) but maybe 1.75 could be? Given how quickly the market skews on a wicket or a boundary, it would just take an early wicket or couple of boundaries to match one side, then you have the whole of the game for a momentum swing to match the other?
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Don't think we'll get any play at Lord's either.
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@Gary-Calvert Hi Gary, many thanks for your post, and welcome !.
Interesting numbers, and great to see someone else attempting this.
Yes, i did wonder if this would only work with similar odds, ie both teams over 2.0.
I am currently at work, so will answer a bit more later .
One question, are you able to utilise the win probablity within your stakes? I would think there would be a algorithm within the Rule (i am using Fairbot).
What have your numbers been like running live? -
Virtually no chance of the women's match going ahead at Cardiff this morning. Rain all the way. Not too much value in the Completed Match market sadly - no better than 1.13 at the moment. If you're someone who likes to 'buy' money though, it still probably represents value.
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Hi Stuart and everyone on here, my first post so hopefully my maths wont let me down and I look like a fool.
I am using a bot to try an inplay cricket scalp as well so have been following your attempts with this pretoss version, see calculations below, hopefully helpfull.
If you lay both teams same stake of 1000
my calculations are
Lay Ind 1.28 back 1.33 profit 37.59
Lay WI 4.6 back 4.4 loss -45.45so I dont think it will work on same stake on both teams unless they are very similar odds,
if you take win probability from odds
1.28 = 79% 4.6 = 21%Lay Ind £790 @ 1.28 back 1.33 profit 29.70
Lay WI £210 @ 4.6 back 4.4 loss -9.55I dont know whether you are trying your bot out in simulation mode or with small stakes, I use BFBM and I had the same strategy running live and in simulation mode and I realised that in simulation mode bot always assumes any bet it fires gets matched, in reality that doesnt always happen, as I found out simulation mode showed a profit, live mode unmatched bet and a loss.
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@Stuart-Wallace I layed pretty much as a wicket fell. Thought I was a goner. 2 big shots put me in green. I bailed in a bit of panic and missed a 1.25 to 2.1 opportunity.
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@Stuart-Wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
thought id check out liquidity for the televised 100 game tonight - Trent Rockets v Southern Brave.
Currently over 10 million matched at half way point - incredible.At end of game, just short of 30 million matched. !
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@Gavin-Rumsey said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@Stuart-Wallace And someone will be really pissed that I snaffled £3.70 of it. Boo ya
Can i have it back please !
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@Stuart-Wallace And someone will be really pissed that I snaffled £3.70 of it. Boo ya
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@Stuart-Wallace that's mad!
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thought id check out liquidity for the televised 100 game tonight - Trent Rockets v Southern Brave.
Currently over 10 million matched at half way point - incredible.
