The road to full time
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@stuart-capstick cough Sports trading life cough
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@darri Cheers mate, same as you I just record other markets on my LCS/LTD filters and one of them is giving me 68% s/r Pre Match and 60% based upon entry on 15 minutes. 123 Games recorded so far, after I've hit 200 I'll break it down to show me the results for each league and usually start trading the one's with the highest strike rates. Would be a nice set and forget to add
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Or one of those crap Nu Metal bands like Limp Bizkit?
Goal Hammer of the Gods, has a nice ring to it, though. -
@stuart-capstick System Ninja sounds like a crap metal band from 1986.
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@james-woodroffe said in The road to full time:
@darri and @Stuart-Capstick couldnt agree more. I tried various strategies when I first started and realised that it was the one that was keeping me going. Eventually I’ll start again looking at something to complement it as Dari is doing now but unsurprising that the Pro’s on here all do it and the articles out there saying it’s had its day are laughable.
Those articles written by people advertising System Ninja or Goal Hammer of the Gods or some other daft name, which turns out to be a late goal strategy, which is just LCS under certain conditions?
As Darri and countless others have said, LCS/LTD is the mainstay, but it's nice to have a stable 3-4 points per month from set and forget strategies. Just for satisfaction as well as tiding you over in times of "variance".
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@darri and @Stuart-Capstick couldnt agree more. I tried various strategies when I first started and realised that it was the one that was keeping me going. Eventually I’ll start again looking at something to complement it as Dari is doing now but unsurprising that the Pro’s on here all do it and the articles out there saying it’s had its day are laughable.
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Totally agree with what you lads are saying. Its the core to football and they are also the highest liquidity markets per game, so you can scale no problem too. I cant see why i would not trade them or how they could not be the best markets to trade or even best strategies to trade.
The main reason you see me testing other strategies is via the data of the results from both of the LCS/LTD. Feel like if i can find 1-2 good set and forget strats that allow me to use more of my unused bank per month and turn that into 2-5 points profit then itll help with the betfair charges long term. Spreading the risk instead of just upping my stakes on LCS/LTD.
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@ben-dobie since im placing this pre match and waiting to be matched inplay without watching im only wanting it to make between 2-10 realistically points per month. This is the same with FHG eventually. For the 2.5 strat im using odds of 1.8 right now and testing higher odds as i go on. Aiming for a strike rate of over 60%, testing gave me a 65% with odds matched at 1.8. Wanting to test the higher odds now to see what it does to the strat as a whole.
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LTD/LCS are always going to be key as the game is based on goals.
In a sense these two the root of all the other strategies. Other strats (unless they are based on cards, corners or goalscorers) are based on LCS in some way.
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It’s an interesting point that a lot of people seem to think that LTD- LCS is just something you learn whilst becoming a trader then you move on to other strategies. But Keith, Ryan and Dari are all 100% spot on and LTD-LCS is a great strategy and provided you’re getting value when you enter there is absolutely nothing wrong with it being your main go to football strategy. I love it because it really helps with my discipline. Those that say it’s dead or dying just don’t want others to know it’s still a brilliant football trading strategy.
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@keith-anderson said in
And here's me still LTD and LCS only!!
Theres a lot to be said about cutting out all the 'fluff', keeping things simple and mastering one area. You only need to diversify when you need to diversify
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@Darri hi mate great to see you having a good week and interesting points about bank management. Also have to agree with people about the LCS/LTD strat, been by far my most consistent run since
I’ve been concentrating on that.
Having said that I’ve recently done ok on BTTS and have noticed one of my filters throwing up a decent strike rate on O 2.5, interested to know what sort of S/R you’re getting on your O 2.5 or what level you’re aiming for it to to be at ? -
Nice work mate. I made a mess of things tonight. I backed RR after 10 overs thinking that they were on for a good score. 154 wasn’t a good score but I held fire because Archer had been outstanding. 2 quick wickets and I’m up just over a point. Stupidly I hung in thinking if they get Pandey that could just about be it. Alas he never looked like going out and suddenly between him and the boy wanting my attention it went Red again pretty quick. Fortunately I had a good day on the tennis and the LCS in the football came off but a bit disappointed in that trade. Well done tho mate you’re going great keep it up.
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RR vs SR: +1.08 points
Nice tradeable game today. RR looked well set for a safe score, i placed a back of them with the knowledge of who was still to bat when smith and buttler at the crease, but lost wickets at vital times and stumbled to 154. Exited here, as the overseas pros are the opening pair for SR i felt i had to or id be in a bad position. Staring at a red screen going into the SR innings. Archer getting out warner and bairstow early meant the price had shot out. I didnt have a strong opinion here but archer didnt bowl after his 2nd over and with SR keeping up with a good powerplay score i entered. If they had lost 2 more wicket in the next 8 overs i would have exited. They still had 2-3 good batsmen to come. I rode that price down all the way to the end, very comfortable win for SR and my trades. 100% record with this ipl. Im sure that wont always be the case but cricket allows you to be wrong a few times and still come out with a majority win.
Europa league tonight, i may trade some games, but i will be watching celtic game hoping we dont get blown away
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@darri thanks for the advice. Definitely some food for thought.
I think your point about being able to handle a bank at £10k the same as I would at £500 is an important point to be aware of. I can see the bank growing but I’ve also got more trading experience to come.
I don’t see 5 to 6 as a huge jump and I’ve seen a vast improvement in my mindset over the last couple of months so I have no major concerns of over doing it. I think maybe when I look over my months trades I’ll make a decision then. I think it’s only when I sit back and take stock that I’ll be able to see it in context.
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@matthew-biggins this is where personal preference comes in. If you can handle scaling up your stakes after a 20% bank increase and not be affected if you lose 2-3 games in a row from the new stakes then aggressively growing is fine. Its what i did and it worked. The main thing is have you got a strategy that consistently over a long period of time will provide you an edge and profit regularly? if yes then bank management in terms of scaling your stakes in line with your bank is purely a mental game. I feel safe at set milestones but thats probably because my bank is bigger than when i had £100 and only made £20 a month etc. What i would do is act how you would act with a £10k bank or a £20k bank. Get the process now and then just keep repeating month in month out.
The one thing to note about all of this is as you say its a good problem/dilemma to have in your trading progress.
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@darri this is interesting reading for me mate as I’m currently in a similar to position as you were. I’ve always been good at keeping my stakes to round numbers, purely for simplicity but naturally as I’ve had better results, I’ve began to think about scaling up. The thing I’m deliberating about is exactly when and how often.
So I’ve been trading with a £500 bank but with this months profits I will (hopefully, I know it’s not over yet
) break through the £600 barrier. So I’ve been wondering whether to make 1pt, £6 up from £5 or whether to keep as I am until I hit something like £750 or £1k.Weirdly I think the temptation to tinker with the bank will be less the bigger it gets. I will say though it feels like a nice problem to have at this current stage as I can see it growing.
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@keith-anderson I've used the LTD for 10 years mate, everybody say's its dead - until they change the rules of football (not VAR - but the original game and rules flow) it'll never be dead
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@keith-anderson almost every strategy iv tested never compares to the lcs/ltd its honestly the main strategy that if you get right you dont need anything else. Im just testing fillers now to combat those betfair charges. So set and forgets that i set pre match and dont need to look at until i update my results, so that all my attention is still on LCS/LTD for late goals.
Yep. Found that also.
I just want a few other strings to the bow- set and forgets as I can't always trade LTD/LCS when games are on.
Part of it, though, is just curiosity. Trying to find the edge.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@keith-anderson almost every strategy iv tested never compares to the lcs/ltd its honestly the main strategy that if you get right you dont need anything else. Im just testing fillers now to combat those betfair charges. So set and forgets that i set pre match and dont need to look at until i update my results, so that all my attention is still on LCS/LTD for late goals.
True! I've never diversified because I don't need to. I had loads of people suggest to me that LTD or LCS will never work out in the long term. For me it certainly does.
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game...
