The road to full time
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@daniel-cooper yep please dont blame me if they all finish in the bottom 4
but iv put my money where my mouth is so i wouldnt have posted if i wasnt confident in this being profitable.Of course not hahaha! I liked your point allocation also, so we shall see what happens!
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@daniel-cooper yep please dont blame me if they all finish in the bottom 4
but iv put my money where my mouth is so i wouldnt have posted if i wasnt confident in this being profitable. -
Thanks for the replies Darri, awesome! I’m gonna try to follow along
obviously at my own peril!!! -
@darri couldn’t agree more re your outright markets mate. The thing I like about Mumbai is their strength across the board and the fact that unlike let’s say Chennai, they do not rely anywhere near as much with home ground advantage as they have far more balance. SRH have that wonderful bowling attack and the fact they play their first 9 matches on the two most spin friendly decks in India will really help (well should) set them up for a really good tournament. Not to mention as pointed out that with Bairstow and Williamson they have great players of spin also.
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@daniel-cooper so far example im just waiting to see how liverpool do against real tonight before deciding on a top 4 trade. If liverpool compete and get through then ill play a safer trade, if liverpool lose say 2-0 tonight then ill be a bit more bullish and will either look to back liverpool or lay chelsea (or both)
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@daniel-cooper no problem mate
with these ipl ones ill be unlikely to trade out until the finals. Ideally we get all 3 in the semis and just remove all liability. Thats best case scenario. More likely we get just 2 and will have to see how heavy the markets favour those teams.In terms of other outrights ill post them on here. With the football season coming to a close im always looking at the top 4 markets. Did this last year when i placed a lay on leicester, i posted this when they looked comfortable but i fancied chelsea and man utd to pinch it from them. Quirky trades that arent the usual but i enjoy finding. They dont always work but the good thing with them is unlike inplay trades there is normally an exit trade you can do to minimise losses.
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@darri Hi Darri. Are you going to be keeping this thread in the loop of your actions with these outright trades? In case anyone wanted to follow?
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So in the past iv always liked the outright markets in sports. I always feel value can be caught/overlooked. I have done these types of trades well before. Last world cup i did NZ who reached final and traded odds on from 12s and i did the melbourne stars where we locked in a profit after just the first game when the markets panicked. I actually do alot on the football but they are longer trades that most people dont stomach, as by the time its settled they have reached new bank levels etc. Good thing here is the IPL is just a few months long.
My teams and prices:
Mumbai 3.6 backed at 2.3 points
Delhi 6.2 backed at 1.5 points
Sunrisers 8.0 backed at 1.2 points
So total staked is 5 pointsWith these im making more returns if either delhi or sunrisers win (4.2 and 4.5 points profit) compared to mumbai (3.2 points profit).
Mumbai have won this comp 5/11 times and finished runners up one other time. So this acts as a potential exit trade if only mumbai reach the finals. That batting lineup is ridiculous! Then the bowling is just gold too. I am a total fanboy of these guys but i still think their price should be much lower. They may well start slow against RCB this week, but long term that team grinds out results and i think will at least become a exit trade option if they reach the semis.
Delhi are a growing team. With pant captaining and under pontings leadership they made big strides last year reaching the final. Funny auction for them this year. Picking up smith and billings adds much needed batting depth. Their bowling is standout with rabada likely to be one of the leading wicket takers and nortje alongside. I like them here and i think they have enough depth in their team to take the extra step this year.
Sunrisers are my outside pick. Im well aware the other 2 are more fancied. But iv been looking at stats and i think this comp will be the highest scoring. With that in mind iv looked at the top order from the other teams and this one stands out. I think that batting lineup is around the same standard as the other two. The issue they have is the lower-middle order. Do they have enough balance in the side. What im looking at here tho is the main bowlers enough to get them out of bad situations. Rashid khan, kumar, natarajan and holder. I feel thats adequate enough. Actually rashid figures over the past few tournaments he has played he basically concedes and takes wickets for 2 bowlers slots. So any fill in bowler here he accommodates. Outside pick for a reason but still not as strong as the other 2.
This sets me up nicely. I believe these are the strongest competitive teams in the comp. RCB are always gonna be big dangers, if they beat mumbai on friday that will cause big movements in the markets. The kohli effect. However i think long term those 3 teams are better at punishing teams. Always feel like an RCB team offers a way back into a match when they are dominating. Compared to say mumbai who are ruthless. They are the golden team that everyone wants to win but never do. They have plenty of stars but what i find with them is that they will have matches of brilliance and outscore many teams but consistency has never been their strongest form. Their wins are flattering but they are like the melbourne stars best names but not consistent enough. So while id have loved to add them to this i just would rather take them on, arguably they are better on paper than delhi individually but in terms of squad i think delhi have the t20 requisites to play better consistently over the comp. None of the other teams take any fancy from me, will take alot of wins for the markets to swing in their favour.
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@james-woodroffe Yeah mate i read it, really looking forward to the season. I wont be looking into it in as much detail as that, the big players turn up regardless. The spinners conditions however is an interesting thought to keep in mind. In a way i like the fact they arent at home, should mean for more swings with the markets not factoring home bias into it, which normally keeps pressure on the price of home favs
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@darri Cricinfo have done a great piece leading into this years IPL as to how sides will cope given that none play at their home grounds and also how the different franchises will need to take various things into consideration playing at the different grounds. How some venues will play to their strengths for the block of matches they have there whilst they’ll need to adapt for matches at venues that will highlight their weaknesses.
Will make for a fascinating season. Bring it on. -
Added an IPL sheet for everyone to follow/track data. Much like last IPL im using it solely as a guide. It doesnt mean trade blindly. It just helps to figure out the bigger data and where teams should be etc. Last year it helped find really good trends. Basically you could have traded them blindly using only the guide to win. Now of course wickets, key partnerships and bowlers are all outside influences you must consider when trading cricket. So thats why im saying treat these as a guide to help maximise your decisions. Last year worked a treat for me and was the building blocks to how i trade t20 now. The first games start end of this week. Ill be updating as usual after most games are done to help me write down my reasoning for entering. Sadly because the way markets move in t20 its very difficult to post inplay trades, so like what iv been doing recently ill just jot down a summary of why i entered etc. This has helped me massively with improving my decisions on them.
Itll take around 10-15 games to get a good sample, so itll bear fruits in the middle to 2nd half of tournament games. Curious to see this years par scores i think they might be bigger. Last year 75 runs after 10 overs was par with most teams winning if +85 runs on the board after 10 overs. Those are typically the scores im looking for to understand if a team price at that time is out of sync, then lay or back accordingly.
I trade t20 using a par scoring method so this all helps. id be doing it anyway so may aswell as the tournament goes on share the same info. Basically what this allows you to do when we get games on the sheets is we can then filter games based on match situation and compare similar scenarios. So say MI score 180, we could then use the data before and filter games where team batting first have scored 180. From there we can get a good par score on where the chasing team needs to be at certain points. We then take that info and add it to the other variables(wickets, key partnerships and bowlers) and can make a good trading decision. There are other sites that do this and im sure Sky will give stats throughout games but iv always felt doing it myself gives me a better understanding of how valuable that info is to my trading decisions.
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End of week update:
SHG:
Slow going, not many games qualifying this weekend. Few last minute goal in H1 making them not tradeable. Even tho there has been 13/15 with a SHG i dont have enough data yet to suggest any scores outside my 0-1/1-1 are profitable. That data is building up tho. So more scorelines in future could qualify but super solid 2/2 and all profit is good profit.Lates:
Sticky patch early on, maybe pushed a few games too hard. Definitely went against my plan in aus, being a bit bullish another goal would come. You can only judge at the time of entry tho and could have been a much healthier green. With that said iv come to the idea of limiting the stakes on these a bit. The Lates are my main trades bu with IPL starting end of week there is no need to push with them so hard. So cutting back to more defensive staking during the end of season phase. Least iv built a healthy profit to defend but most of my focus will be IPL, data only trades (SHG) and the odd Late goal next few months.Cricket:
Actually scalped a tick in the south africa game. Just could not get a good read of those sides. I think im definitely better at trading with players i know in and out so decided not to trade it. So IPL cant come quick enough. However nice little trade on the test match yet again. Yep it did go onto be another draw missed opportunity, easy to say that with hindsight. Im happy with cutting short my position. It allowed me to focus all attention on the football. Maybe could have just removed liability, again tho as iv said before as soon as there is a hint of doubt im looking to trade out.Conclusion:
Super happy with this solid start. Building on from a good 2 weeks in march. This next week should just be a prelude to the IPL. Not setting targets for it as dont want to push it too hard. But European games during week will be a nice filler before the busy period. Ill still do the cricket updates as they are helping me understand my reasoning for each trade.
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@darri I am mate find your indepth thought process very interesting to read. Keep going please
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Do people still like this blog as a read or is it too predictable now? What would people like to see? If not then ill just keep continuing but dont want this just to be me waffling on to myself
its hard not getting to know who reads these there is no analytic for me to judge etc, im not gonna be a youtuber and ask for a like and subscribe but it would be good to know who is reading stillAbsolutely - always find your posts interesting and food for thought.
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I read this everyday @Darri Our football picks are similar.
I stopped my blog because it really wasn’t doing me any good. It became more of a chore as time went on.
I just didn’t have the time.
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Cricket Update:
West Indies vs Sri lanka: +3.19 points/3.19%
How scared have the markets been of the draw since last time?! Wickets having almost no affect on the decay of the draw price. Unlike last time there hasnt been as big of a swing as id have wanted. But there has been two decent enough swings for me to jump on in time. The first being a lay of sri lanka. I got in when chandimal and de silva both at the crease and settled nicely. The reason for the lay however was simply because i felt the draw price was too short given the situation. Sri lanka are an extremely slow run rate team these 2 tests, its taking them ages to reach the same totals as the WI. With that in mind and a pitch not doing much i anticipated sri lanka would bat the majority of the day to try catch that total. If they did catch it then too much of the test match would have been played for a result and if they didnt id be in a good lay position. Exactly that happened, they fell short and their price went from 5s out to 18s.
With WI now firm fav according to the markets thoughts for me now turned to time left. Like i said in the last test match modern day teams prefer to have around 400 runs on he board so that they can set attacking fields all day on day 5. For me this thought made me eager to back the draw. I thought WI would end up batting all of day 4, thus the prices between them and the draw would flip flop. I backed the draw at 2.52. Now i built a position up to be 9 points on the draw but iv since traded out. Iv exited now and hedged up for +3.19 points all round. I know im gonna feel gutted if it goes on to be a draw but quite frankly i dont like the idea of backing 2 draws in the same series. So safety first and just getting ready now for the football this weekend.
A very safe +3.19 points attained. I could have pushed this more i think but even as i say that there is hesitation and for me thats always been the time to cashout and move on. My trading has always been look for any reason not to trade this and if you cant find a reason, then trade it, this for me is a reason to leave this now and be happy with the ticking profits.
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wow better response than i first thought!
@Eamonn-Hogan they take me all lunchtime to post
@James-Woodroffe @Chris-Osborne @Simon-Lock Thanks lads
means a lot actually@Stuart-Capstick really interesting question as always, i think its certainly not the kind of help it gave me at the start. I do think it helps give me structure and routine to all this. Which given how trading goes is quite handy. I do sometimes feel like if i was just left to trade away myself id do fine, but it would feel like a hobby rather than an active investment. I know that sounds weird that im adding pressure but it feels like this blog makes me accountable to myself because i post every trade i enter on football on the football thread and this is here for myself to look at and go yep this is working and explain it. Id be doing it to myself anyway so writing it out and reading it over makes it feel real. I think iv learnt to use this well coming from being useless at gambling without much thought behind it, keeps me in check.
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I always find your blog useful. If nothing else, it gives me a mental kick up the arse. I see your attention to detail and willingness to help others and it puts me to shame.
I trade very differently to you; I'm largely set and forget with a very picky late goal or FHG. But, I think reading your blog is enlightening. Reading different voices/perspectives, so to speak, is always a benefit. I'm just grateful you take the time to put your thoughts down. I've certainly learned a lot from you.
The question really is, though, does this blog help you?
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@darri Hi Darri, I'm new to all this but ive been keenly following your thread, your succesful fhg has been great lately. I thought it was a good time to say hello and keep posting them winners
