The road to full time
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Inspired by james on the masters thread, im wanting to get on as a bit of fun! Please dont treat these as trades, they are absolutely bets but for transparency and for a bit of fun to watch over the weekend these are my picks:
Top 10 Finish:
Patrick Reed @ 4.3 for 1.10 points
He holds the 2nd best birdie average on the tour, which leads nicely onto us knowing he is one of the better putters on the tour. This is augusta so clever putting is essential. He has also placed once and won once in the last 3 years. So has solid course form.Webb Simpson @ 4.6 for 1.02 points
This is the all rounder, solid driver and putter. Driving accuracy as with most majors is a crucial factor. He is currently 5th in driving accuracy on the tour. Follow that up with 2/3 top 10s and the other was a top 20.Sunjae Im @ 5.3 for for 0.88 points
I really wanted to add bryson here for the reason im gonna give but he is way too short, but augusta has 4 par 5s. The ability for people during the 4 rounds to convert those to birdies and eagles will make all the difference. If you look how Sungae did it last year you can see he only dropped one shot on them and made 11 under par round, losing only to dustin johnson for a t2 on his masters debut. This year he will look to back that form on the par 5s with his 7th in driving accuracy and hopefully a repeat of last year.This is a total liability of 3 points and at those prices we only need one to place. Remember these are just a bit of fun, stake less if you want to follow. Im not taking it too serious but obviously iv researched this a bit. Follow at own risk im not a massive golf trader but have done well before, just not enough of it.
Result of this post below
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What a great result to wake up to. Not only did i get the long awaited post lockdown haircut today getting this is a bonus.P. REED sweeping up to net us +1.66 points
I wasnt feeling to confident after the first 2 rounds, with IM not making the cut and both reed and simpson a mile off, was gonna be an ask.But both golfer produced solid rounds 3/4 to get them in contention for top 10s. If simpson had gained one less stroke he would have made a top 10 too which would have been a very good payday. These types of things i treat as bonusses but ill add this to the bank total as if trying to ramp it up.
Look how close we were to even more profits
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@eamonn-hogan nope i dont up stakes until iv hit 100 points/doubled the bank. There are a few reasons for this but the main is i want each strategy to have the chance to breathe. I want a cycle of trades to have been put through. This means that good and bad periods can occur, i want to be upping in a calm period. So when they reach my target of doubling the bank that should mean that im then in a much safer position to up stakes. I always see people upping stakes far to quick off the back of good runs. I just like waiting for trading cycles. I havent hit 100 games on any of those strategies so there is no way to measure how good that batch of games have done yet. Also no 100 games on either also shows how good a 4 weeks it has been. Doing things nice and simple has always been the best way in my opinion.
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Are you on still on the £10 = 1 point, you not upping them along side your bank then?
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End of Week Update:Football: +17.3 points/bank growth %
SHG:
More of these have now started to match and given the tight rules on them its good to see that when they have, they have gone onto win. Id say im very close to adding another scoreline which will help it numbers wise also.Lates:
Solid from these id say these could easily have doubled if like what i said on the football thread clear chances had been converted. These things happen tho and out of our control. With the season entering what i call motivation period im looking forward to getting on board the games people dont expect to have goals in.Other:
I know the other section of my results sheet is a mixed bag but actually this weeks profits are built up from all the nice wins from there. Thats the sheet i add all games not on the main trades/filters. So champs league etc. These have added a healthy profit this week and expect more trades here during this end of season period. I never set a target for them they just appear on some matchdays.Cricket: + 3.95 points/bank growth %
The ipl is on and already making profits. Im not expecting too much early on in fact as long as i hover around break even or better until each team has played a few games then ill hopefully be in a good position. The last two games being my best. One traded the other not. Sticking to my plan and if i dont see a trade i just leave it. I know the emphasis is on trying to get on every game being a 2 month tournament but for me like with all my trading my style is more about sniping the good opportunities. Today for example had none. Was there trading chances, yes, but none that fit my plan.Conclusion: +20.4 points/bank growth % (pending golf update)
Fantastic week, sets up a solid foundation for rest of month. Im sure variance at some stage will hit, but ill do my best to battle against it by picking best trades i can. Still have a few unsettled bets in the golf which we can only hope one sneaks into top 10 now. However its the trades im more focussed on and this has been a great period for me. IPL has settled in well. Actually this weekend was the first time iv gotten to see how well i can manage myself between football and cricket. You will have seen i went quiet when cricket was on during the chasers innings. Thats how i plan to approach this period. Worked well today.
Here is a summary of the sheets this month:
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Cricket update:
South Africa (SA) vs Pakistan (PAK): +1.47 points
SA with a flattering score here. The markets at first during the build up really weren't sure how well that worked on this ground. Top edges and mistimed shots all hitting the boundaries easy. In fact trying to get 2s on that ground proved difficult. With the base they built they should have reached over 200 and that psychologically would have changed the way PAK would have chased that. With this in mind i placed a rather tame stake on PAK hoping to see them utilise the powerplay, if they did id look to use more stake if i was confident they would reach it. That didnt happen losing wickets at key intervals but keeping up with the run targets. Instead i just allowed my tame stake to run on them as the price i had was good enough. Got there in the end but would have been a risky trade to use more.
Chennai (CSK) vs Delhi (DC): +3.67 points
Was this just a mirror image of the same situation as the SA vs PAK game? Never watched the CSK innings, actually making it a firm point not to while trading. This means i can judge the chase all the better. That total should really have been competitive, the issue with CSK is if the two opening bowlers (their main assets) dont pick up the wickets needed its a very lame attack. They just allowed dhawan and shaw the chance to get chewing at the total. The good thing here is i could wait for the right chance to get in here. When the total to chase is that large the markets put so much pressure on the price that it doesnt want to flip flop too quick. Meaning i could be patient. With the two DC openers flying i started to build into them. I entered my main position on them, and in the background started to take a few scalps on them too. Great game and puts on the board a nice profit. Remember yes you can stake higher in ipl but remember to manage it. There is never a 100% safe trade in t20.
Conclusion: +5.14 points
These are the good days when everything is plain sailing. All decisions well managed and timed. Being patient even when the games are rocketing on. Thats the strength to all of these. Good start now time to make sure its this controlled even when it turns, really good headspace today with these.
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@darri I was the same mate I was bored out of my brain and backed RCB early in the chase and then entered again after Maxi fell and the market wrote off RCB despite ADV and the big Dan still to come. The tie lay worked well. Jeez I hope Covid doesn’t wreck this tournament. On a side note and a personal note it’s 10 years on Tuesday since a cute blonde from Bournemouth who was working on the IPL accepted my offer for a drink. Poor chick she’s stuck with me now.
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IPL update:
MI vs RCB: -1.37 points
Couldnt have asked for a better first game. Itchy fingers by me to get in even tho i was small stakes still could have been a bit more patient. MI were 86/1 after 10 overs, with lynn breezing along nicely. With what was left in the tank i thought they should at least be doubling their score here. Thinking that and looking at the 160 runs price i got on. Yep they fell 1 short
Saved myself in the 2nd innings tho going back to the old faithful approach. With MI only posting less than 160 RCB should be able to structure a chase effectively to eat into that score. Like iv said in the preview to this, RCB always give an opportunity back to the opposition at some stage even when in a great position. They did here too. Whats the one thing that is always consistent? A settled batsmen in the last 5 overs can change the game. De villiers knocking about nicely. I backed RCB to chase that down. This should have been the only trade today, small stakes just trying to get a feel for the pace of this years tournament players need time to settle. But happy to see the old process still working. Looking forward to the rest of this weekend
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Cheers lads!
@Chris-Osborne unfortunately true
i tend to give a story around the answer, probably why i didnt enjoy maths @James-Woodroffe probably my favourite topic in trading, very easy to talk strategies and how to make them better, but if you cant manage yourself then its gonna be fruitless long term. Plans that work around your lifestyle and hobbies makes for a far better mental state. Enjoy the trip lad and hopefully the ipl will keep you entertained in the downtime
:clinking_beer_mugs:@Matt-Wood big posts, often filled with ramblings i make it a job for others to find the gold within them
hopefully tho there are some points you end up liking in the novels of my trading -
Excellent post as usual @Darri and a lot of sound advice for new traders. Very easy to get overwhelmed with strategies having to many instead of just focusing on the one and making it work. The best advice tho is how this can easily become all consuming, especially currently with what everyone is dealing with.
We had a good chat re me trading tennis and now going back to work on it. Deciding that did I really wanna trade it in my down time between tournaments and without much thought it was a resounding no. I enjoy trading the tennis but it’s something that I can come back to if my work circumstances change. The point being that trading needs to work around your lifestyle and not dictate it. Happy that I’m back trading football again as it’s non time consuming and means I can focus on cricket. Apologies for the long post but I can’t get a beer at the airport and yes it’s 9am but time doesn’t exist at airports cause it’s always happy hour somewhere someone is flying to.
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@darri Excellent advice as ever Darri, the length of your posts amaze me at times but the content is usually very good. Bet you had no trouble with word count essay requirements at school?
Will be following your IPL posts with interest not going to be trading this time round with a view to getting involved in the future but will be tracking the markets to see how the game flow has an impact on odds etc.
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This post is deleted!
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Just a wee update before quite a busy period. Had a good restart to all this since i came back from my small break in feb/march. Needed the break in a good headspace right now. I actually think that will be part of how i plan trading seasonality. I might target the quieter periods and just switch off for a bit. Like iv been saying for a while now, managing yourself is just as important as your strategies. Both are needed. I think too much exposure to this stuff can quickly go from a side hustle/main hustle to an addiction very quickly. Remember its still betting, just at least we are doing it with a bit less emotions. Its quite nice to have something else going on. For me i invested in video production its a passion of mine and the trading money allowed for me to scale that to a level i can enjoy. I feel that having something outside of trading makes you get into a good headspace about how important trading is to you. The less emotionally attached you are at trading the better iv traded that might just be a personal thing but iv seen others say similar. I get the drive to get out of your daily job and jump on this is a goal but i still think having passions outside trading however small is always a good idea. It can be anything from a taking up a sport (cricket for me), fitness, gaming, starting another side hustle etc. Dont let this stuff consume you.
Seen alot of new faces around which is great, gutted a couple older members have left but might be due to work re opening etc. The forum is producing some fantastic profits and strategies. Its always easy when new members come on, we can just direct them to all the good stuff. Notably, stuarts LTD, the football thread guys (hope im included
), the btc lads blogs and videos, john horses, the cricket thread (gold mine)and its great also seeing the new blogs on the forum. I honestly believe right now you could easily make around 15-20 points a month purely from the stuff on here, which is all you need when starting out, im stubborn a bit and want to build my own stuff. I started this blog to help me learn properly and expose my trades for input and accountability. Iv also been helping a couple members recently too which is great, makes it easier having all these things.One of the common themes that keeps popping up is whats too much or how quickly can i get there. Ill always stand by the master one at a time strategy. Specialise in one thing. The funny thing is, the people and strategies i just spoke about are all specialists in their own markets. For me thats 2nd half goals iv spent 2 years doing them now, id say actually that its only really been in the last 12 months iv really got it to where i wanted, that ties into around the time since iv full time last march, which then led to working on cricket for 4 months, which is now leading to me doing data only set and forgets. All 3 strategies iv added to my portfolio have taken me time and effort. I see alot of people doing hours on 3-4 strategies at a time looking at the prices inplay etc. For me thats too much. I see this alot when i get asked for help. People start asking about all these different quirks of trading that market. If you focus on one at a time you can answer them far quicker and better. Im not gonna ramble on that subject too much iv done plenty blog posts on the concept. Just make this stuff easier to understand by looking at one thing at a time. By all means test things but dont try trading without testing and when you do try trading start small see if you can handle it. I know thats sounds stupid as its a click of a button, but make sure it fits around you and your trading, sometimes id test a strategy and its profitable, only to then start trading it and go wait this is so time consuming and took me away from my main trades. Dont put too much pressure on yourself i did at times and thats why im advising this to everyone else.
Just wanted to pop in. Thanks for the people who messaged the other day saying they enjoy the blog. It keeps me grounded this thing and gives me a routine. Something i never thought id still need. Wasnt planning on it lasting this long tbh. Happy to keep it going tho as it serves a purpose for me. Some cracking stuff on here, keep it up
Edit: always laugh when i end up clicking submit on here to then see it is a huge post
wish i was better at being to the point -
IPL tomorrow!!!! Probably will be small staking tomorrow if at all just want to get a feel for it. Then as the tournament settles jump on in. Looking forward to the routine it gives too during the week. Normally means cricket during the afternoon followed by football at night
only time ill allow myself to be actively trading for any decent length of time on a given day. Normally only log in to place a trade then leave. -
Thatll be all for outrights this week, ill keep people updated on them if i trade out or am planning to trade out if a certain thing is gonna occur (key match) so people can do same. The ipl and top 4 trades are very much my main trades here but the golf is just a bit of fun. Still tho always keen to make money
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Inspired by james on the masters thread, im wanting to get on as a bit of fun! Please dont treat these as trades, they are absolutely bets but for transparency and for a bit of fun to watch over the weekend these are my picks:
Top 10 Finish:
Patrick Reed @ 4.3 for 1.10 points
He holds the 2nd best birdie average on the tour, which leads nicely onto us knowing he is one of the better putters on the tour. This is augusta so clever putting is essential. He has also placed once and won once in the last 3 years. So has solid course form.Webb Simpson @ 4.6 for 1.02 points
This is the all rounder, solid driver and putter. Driving accuracy as with most majors is a crucial factor. He is currently 5th in driving accuracy on the tour. Follow that up with 2/3 top 10s and the other was a top 20.Sunjae Im @ 5.3 for for 0.88 points
I really wanted to add bryson here for the reason im gonna give but he is way too short, but augusta has 4 par 5s. The ability for people during the 4 rounds to convert those to birdies and eagles will make all the difference. If you look how Sungae did it last year you can see he only dropped one shot on them and made 11 under par round, losing only to dustin johnson for a t2 on his masters debut. This year he will look to back that form on the par 5s with his 7th in driving accuracy and hopefully a repeat of last year.This is a total liability of 3 points and at those prices we only need one to place. Remember these are just a bit of fun, stake less if you want to follow. Im not taking it too serious but obviously iv researched this a bit. Follow at own risk im not a massive golf trader but have done well before, just not enough of it.
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@daniel-cooper no worries mate, although better to say thanks after if it wins or slate me if it loses, speculate to accumulate, iv been eyeing this trade for a while, the real madrid game being the trigger.
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@darri thanks for this!
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If the IPL trades didnt tickle your fancy, maybe these football ones will.
English Prem Top 4:
Right now i believe 70 guarantees top 4. Its what the average for the past few season have been. If we are using that as par then we have to look at see what teams can reach those points. What iv done is iv only counted points when they are playing a team below the top half, this means that some teams can outperform my expectation either way.
So these end of season min points i have are:
liverpool 69
west ham 67
spurs 64
chelsea 63I believe leicester will also make top 4 given their run in. So that means the 2 most likely for me personally are liverpool and west ham. Chelsea have the hardest run in.
So when i look at the prices on offer. I was tempted by liverpool. But the safer option here for me is to lay chelsea. The risk factor here is they are playing 2 risky games but at home. However chelsea home record against the top teams isnt that great this year. The fact liverpool could be knocked out champs league here and chelsea remain in europe will benefit liverpool. there are other dangers too spurs and everton are chasing too. So with this in mind iv placed:
Lay of chelsea at 2.16 to win 3 pts
Under the radar of all this is the outside chance west ham have. I know antonio is an injury scare but he has only contributed 12 goals (goals and assists) so 25% of their goals. The resurgence of lingard has made up for that. They play leicester next which could move the price either way, both are strong home and away respectively so im willing to take a chance here, if they win we could trade out this part and leave a free green on them as its chelsea thats the main trade. The leicester game was as i said before not part of my points allocation for west ham so a loss here isnt the be and end all.
Back of west ham at 5.3 for 0.52 points
So to summarise im laying chelsea because between the pack chasing that 4th spot i believe they have the hardest task. Liverpool look hungry for it in the league and with a potential exit from champs league next week just in time to focus on those winnable games. Iv backed west ham as an outside chance, looking to remove liability on them if they perform better than expected next few games, liverpool are too short for a trade thats why iv allocated more stake towards the lay of chelsea because thats the main trade here. Basically its do i think chelsea have a better chance of top 4 than liverpool and leicester and thats no. So to be around the same price im laying, the safety nets are the other teams catching.
