The road to full time
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@darri thanks Darri for the insightful post. Have a great day, Paul
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There are no LTDs tomorrow and also unlikely to be any other trades also. Day off and will spend some time going over data when i get the chance. Refining some strats and working on a review of my current trading (whats working/whats not). Hope people managed to have a good weekend
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Fantastic weekend, hope people have managed to get on the trades. This is giving us a huge buffer to work with now with 1 week left of month. Remember its not about the short term rises, its about long term sustainability. Im glad i had chats with people about strike rate over the past few weeks. I really stand by what iv been saying. Value before anything. Also had a few people talk about this. Dont let football opinions get in your way. Iv had a few people say the exact same thing. "iv seen this thousands of times, its gotta be a goal here", this is the WORST attitude and is the reason good traders take advantage of this. You do not know! Value is all that ever matters. Think about why those good traders are good. I think im an extreme case because i was obsessed with improving. I have always wanted to be the best at my area of the market or at least successful. You dont just get there because you think x event will happen. That leads to the poor house. Remember there is a certain amount of effort needed to be a consistent trader. You dont just get good from day one. Learn why your losses were losses and why your winners were winners. You decrease losses and increase winners (michael owen here) youll be a better trader. Become interested in that side of it. We are all doing this because we enjoy sport and trading. If you are not then perhaps its not right for you, remember not everyone can be a good trader, we can try make them but in the end not everyone is prepared to improve in such a way.
Forget about short term trends or what others are doing. Think of all the strats that have been on this forum, everyone was doing them, where are they now?? Long term success for me is based on doing basic things well. In life generally that is a great path to success. Its the same for trading. Yes those exotic trades/detailed systems can build a spike to the bank, but are they repeatable every trade, how hard are they to track/amount of criteria and how can it be compounded safely? Look around the forum, the best traders do some of the most basic trades, i mean some of my trades are almost common sense, dont try break whats been working by the successful traders. There is a reason there hasnt been a "golden strategy" because its a false illusion. Success is just about finding something repeatable, safe and something to compound.
Great little run iv had but wanted to post this just so there is no false hope. There will be times i struggle, but i dont care. I know long term, however long that will be, ill come back and come back better, building the bank. I just do the basics in my niches well. Hopefully this blog shows that and can be something people can take away and use for themselves. I trade sensible things, my strats are not complicated or with huge criteria, i compound safely and never stake too high (protect the bank). If you can get something as complex as trading into those simple steps and make this all simple to repeat your trading journey will change for the better. It may take people a long time to know this or find out, but hopefully the power of this forum/community will help show a pathway to this way of trading.
Good weekend and lets hopefully end the month well
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Goalscorers: man utd vs liverpool
Salah
RonaldoSky Bet special. Salah anytime goalscorer is at 4.0
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Goalscorers: man utd vs liverpool
Salah
Ronaldo -
Goalscorers:
West ham vs Spurs:
Antonio
Benrahma
SonBrentford vs Leicester:
Toney
VardyStakes detailed on my sheets. Lets hope we continue the fine form
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LTDs for today:
Zaglebie (poland)
Forest (championship)
Las Palmas (la liga 2) -
@darri said in The road to full time:
There is a late game for ltd:
Columbus (usa)
This was a winner
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@paul-bacon while its great when we get these late goals, try not to worry about the individual games. Try to think big picture. Over course of 100 games its not about when/how, its more about is the things im doing value. The rollercoaster that is football if you do the right things will work out themselves.
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@darri Columbus was lat 87min phew lol
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Fantastic day of trading
LTDs: break even
SHGs: 3/3
FHG: 1/1
Cricket: 1/1
Goalscorers: There is a late game for ltd:
Columbus (usa)
Hope people have managed to get on these, bank ticking along nicely, starting to up stakes
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Anytime Goalscorer: Brighton vs City
Foden
Grealish
SilvaSame as leeds game, spread of stakes rather than set stake for each
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Goalscorers:
Leeds vs Wolves:
Raphinha
Jimenez
HwangPalace vs Newcastle:
Edouard
BentekeThe palace game is normal staking but the leeds game is staked as one amount rather than main trades for each. So in my case £30 on each palace scorer and then £40 on the whole lot in the leeds game
These just keep ticking along very nicely
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Goalscorers:
Leeds vs Wolves:
Raphinha
Jimenez
HwangPalace vs Newcastle:
Edouard
BentekeThe palace game is normal staking but the leeds game is staked as one amount rather than main trades for each. So in my case £30 on each palace scorer and then £40 on the whole lot in the leeds game
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Bit of an after timed post here but for transparency keeping it going. I traded the aus game and boy did it come close. I managed to get in just before smith and maxwell hit a couple boundaries thinking if they got set they would see them home. They didnt but stoinis did. A nice win and ticks the bank along. The reason i didnt post is because it went from 1.3 down to 1.19 in the matter of a few balls, so not enough time to post. Yes the price went back up but id not have recommended people get in when its new batsmen regardless of how little runs were needed. A win tho and builds momentum, hopefully get a good buffer going in the cricket.
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@darri I think Sky are just doing it for events they’re showing live. You’re right, it’s not a trading opportunity but there’s value. Like you said before, £10 pays for Netflix for the month or could add it to a charity bet. It’s not for everyone as John can only put on 8p!
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Anytime Goalscorers: Chelsea vs Nowich
Havertz
MountIv 2 games today for GS so ill update this once this game is finished
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@dan-mackinnon for some reason must be data based, but the odds on offer for any arsenal player for a shot on target last night was very healthy. With the media disliking them id like to take advantage of any misjudgements. Only issue with specials is i think you can only use £10 stakes.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Anytime Goalscorers: Arsenal vs Villa
Aubameyang
LacazetteI also think arsenal are good value here or at least that villa are a good lay. Im not doing it as want to keep to pure data for weekends but they are part of an xG model that hasnt lost yet. Its early i tracking and i feel uneasy ever thinking of backing arsenal to win so instead ill stick with goalscorer markets.
Sky Bet had another special yesterday like the Fury fight. Aubameyang to have 1+ shot on target at evens. If I see anything like that which matches your suggestion I'll give you a shout.
