The road to full time
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LTD list for today:
Haka
HonkaHopefully get an easy ipl game to trade today too
could be wishful thinking with these 2 teams -
@dan-mackinnon also just seen your post on the cricket thread
looks like you nailed it. With the PK chase when your looking for 10 over comparison try to be ahead of that info. So look at 8th/9th over to get in. Typically 8-12 overs is spinners or weaker economy pace bowlers. This is when swings can happen. PK for example had a massive over in the 10th +20 runs i think. That might not have been as good a value entry as your now fully in the market momentum. For this type of trade its more about low risk/high potential. They hadnt lost a wicket up with run rate, meaning last 10 could be explosive and not hamper the price enough that wed take a huge loss.Everything you did worked. Timing a trade is hard and mixing up strats will be difficult when its money entered, but the way you are doing it youll find your own sweet spot between the approaches.
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@darri I might have behaved differently because I didn’t have the pressure of actually trading (which was a lesson in the value of paper trading). Before I probably got too caught up in what I expected to happen in the next over or 2 rather than the overall outcome. It was good to sit back, relax and actually enjoy it. From a trading perspective I’m focusing on football, but I will continue to watch the cricket and do some mental paper trading.
What you said reminded me of the quote “it is impossible for a man to learn what he thinks he already knows”.
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@dan-mackinnon this is great to hear bud, glad it helped you and thanks for the post. I think we try to be too granular with our trading at times and get carried away with fine details. This can be applied to all sports. Like what you said we can see a team miss a sitter and go right a goal surely is coming. But actually the bigger picture is saying to avoid. Same with strategies. We can try tweak certain areas and make its so optimal that its hard to manage etc.
Trading for me used to be like that. Iv matured over the years as a trader, more recently since i went full time actually. The easier you make this the better. If you can handle the big picture then the smaller details or variances will not matter.
Good example was today, i was trying to be too detailed in the PK chase yet it was evident that they matched my strategy and should have entered. I over thought the trade. When really it was simple.
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@darri I posted on the cricket thread but I used this strategy whilst I watched the game. I didn’t trade it but made a mental note of the odds at key points.
When you said about thinking of the big picture it made so much sense. I enjoy watching cricket and when I’ve traded before it’s been gambling. Taking onboard your advice I realise my old style was like trying to trade football but readjusting every time a team had a shot!
Thanks again for last few posts
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No LTDs today, did have one pop up but when i went to view market odds werent qualifying, would have won, as they are now 3-0 up. Iv almost no data on higher odds or if setting it as a queued lay works. I just like my process right now. Could expand in future but want to make this as good as it can be right now then we look at other areas.
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Its so good to have IPL back! Here is my summary of how i trade this game. Please compare it to the post i did to sharpen the understanding of my approach if your interested in that strategy.
RR vs PK: +1.62 points/%of bank
At the 8 over mark in the RR innings they were 76/2. This meant they were likely to hit +80 runs inside the first 10 overs. This matches the first entry point we are looking for, which is are they likely to score 80 runs or more inside 10 overs. I backed RR and backed the 180 in the runs market. End of innings they didn't push on so a nominal profit in the match odds made. However full win in the runs market, par score working well for this.
Missed out on the PK chase lovely big swing, im just very hesitant to be on teams that are chasing +180. That is actually the blurred lines area of the strat that if you to know a little about the sport and the 2 teams. Who is still to bat and bowl etc you can be swayed away from a trade. If you had actually followed my strategy to its every word youd have been on that PK swing and made a very nice profit in backing them. 1.65 - 1.01
wanted to be a bit conservative first week of the ipl until all teams play a match.Nice start to the resuming of ipl trading, small profit but adds a bit of buffer to future mistakes. Honestly the fan in me here wanted to back PK heavily. But had to stay focussed and remember value and data (par scores) together wins, not just the eye test. Cant be bullish too early in the restart but proof the strategy worked for this game if you had zero knowledge of cricket, but instead of moaning about a missed chance ill take that into the next game and make sure i dont miss it.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Back to the football and here is the LTD for today:
Rosario Central vs San Lorenzo
1/1
nice to see this ticking along nicely -
@darri yeah brother, it’s a cracking post. So easy to understand and helpful to those interested in cricket trading. Here’s to a successful IPL - T20 World Cup.
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@darri agree with Matt thanks for posting your approach to t20. Good luck with the iPl.
Won’t be trading it just following but interesting to see the approaches.
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Glad you lot have liked the post, hope it helps, remember thats just my take on it, there are other good ways to tackle t20. Ill be looking to watch and hopefully get a good trading opportunity in the game today. Will post an update on it like i was doing before after each trade.
Back to the football and here is the LTD for today:
Rosario Central vs San Lorenzo
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@darri Great post this Darri, thanks for sharing your methods.
Cricket is something I will be looking to add as a second sport one day, once I am comfy with my footy trading. There is sooooo much money traded on cricket that liquidity is never an issue. Not knowing anything about the game (Thank you to James for helping me learn rules etc) nor being a fan it will be interesting to see if I can learn to trade this one day. Judging by your method outlined here I am sure I could as it is simple and straight forward.
I read through Marks blog after you mentioned it, was a great read and quite inspiring.
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Iv been debating how best to explain my t20 strategy. Really my entire blog when iv gone through each game traded is my process. Iv seen others post their way of doing them. They sound good, james strategy is something i helped work on with him and glad he is using my approach for good results. I just dont like set ways of trading t20s tho. I have core principles yes, but not set entries/odds. Each game should be traded on its own merit. Cricket is a funny sport for going against opinion at times.
I trade with what iv labelled positional trading (heard the term elsewhere)
This is when im taking one main trade at a time and managing it to my best ability. Not letting it run away from me and letting it run in good situations.
This allows me to avoid getting excited for opportunities in games, there are plenty. All im caring about is the game flow and if that will affect my position. Forget about the inner game dynamics think big picture. Is x team on course for a big score or are they looking like chasing the total down. The markets react based on the inner battles within the game. I find that erratic and leads to overtrading. Your control over the big picture will decide how well you do long term, not the inner battles.How do i measure this? Par Score. Par score was something i read from mark iversons blog. His is based on ground scores. Can use google to find this out. There arent that many banana skin grounds but generally its best to avoid these grounds. Typically average/good grounds will have a par score of 170-180 runs range. So if team set a target above or below we might then look to find a good opportunity to back or lay based on that total. Those who have followed this blog know that i shared a spreadsheet showing all the ipl/big bash scores and it was consistent in both what the average totals were. Id encourage everyone to track this, especially the 10 over milestones of each innings, feel free to look at my blog further down to get the spreadsheet template for it.
There are 3 main times of a match ill enter:
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Team batting first on course to hit +80 runs for the first 10 overs. This generally means they will hit a +180 score which is above our par range and therefore makes said team favs. Exit or hold onto this trade, this will be personal choice id exit at the break and look for a new opportunity should one arise in the chase.
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Chasing side on course to surpass 10 over comparison between both sides. So for example team batting first got 65 runs inside 10 overs and team batting 2nd are on course to beat this by 10 runs so +75 runs. Ill be wanting there to be 2 set batsmen and at least 5 wickets remaining. Ill target getting involved when one of the less premium bowlers are about to come on. Ill likely look to exit this before the last couple overs, do not panic if you lose a few wickets wait till 2 overs out at least before taking a loss, if its close this brings us on to the 3rd entry point
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A set key batsmen (normally a top 6 batsmen) inside the last 5 overs. Id almost go as far as saying wickets dont matter here. As long as he has 2-3 wickets left and has been playing well, back the batting side. This honestly is where the money is at and how iv made my bigger earners. The market will be unlikely to favour him chasing a total of say between 10-12 runs an over for the last 5 overs. If you are opposing the chasing side in this situation exit asap. You should still make a good profit from your previous trade ie the +180 score but run away from this trade straight away in this situation. If you backed the chasing side earlier, id add to your position here. As soon as the markets think he is nailed on to chase it down exit, dont try to take it to last over, unless there are at least 2 set batsmen left.
Those are the only 3 situations id enter. I dont care for short sharp swings im in this for 1-2 good trades. Control of the situation is key in cricket, especially t20. The prices rise and fall in 1 ball. When you have placed your trade, avoid the markets for the next few overs even if wickets fall. Wait to see if the picture changes long term. Yes some games will go against you but thats trading. If you are entering with sound reason and good prices then long term it doesnt matter, youll win.
Key mistakes to avoid:
Never back a team batting when the batsmen has not yet faced 10 balls. 0-10 balls is so key in t20 especially after over 10. This vulnerable 10 initial balls is when most t20 batsmen play horrendous shots. Its after 10 balls that they flow better and time their shots. This applies to every batsmen regardless of their name. Never just get on because its a big name player, the markets are waiting to laugh at you for that. Its whats known as a FANBOY trade.
Dont be put off by the odds or let it sway your entry. Im super flexible with odds. Ill back low or high, as long as it fits my plan. Back with confidence or dont enter at all. There are hundreds of t20s to get your teeth into over the year. Pick the best opportunities. If a team chasing have a set batsmen in the last 5 overs and they are priced +4.0 dont worry about the market thinking your wrong, this is you telling the market its wrong. Its always your edge versus the market. Back yourself.
Not every game is tradable! I think this is the biggest mistake. People force trades for the sake of it. Super hyper that its on tv and your enjoying watching, you feel you need to be on something. Stop and go back to the plan. If its not on the plan do not enter. You might win a few and think your good at trading but itll bite you hard. Consistency is not based on hunches. Its based on a solid foundation and reasoning for trades. Please avoid Fanboy trades.
So to summarise:
Use par score to judge match situation instead of momentum
3 main entries:
1st innings 10 over score/2 innings 10 over score/last 5 overs of match
Beware of set batsmen dont oppose
One main trade at a time
No Fanboy trades
Not every game is tradable
Back yourself dont be put off by the oddsYou dont need to follow this, you can trade the game in so many ways. This is just my way. Here is what my results have been like since april this year:
This has worked not only this year but the ipl previous and the big bash also. All of those trades iv given detailed posts for each individual game. If you have the time go an read them. Over the course of this ipl ill be doing the same. So dont worry if you dont understand from words, real examples always resonate better, but thought since people asked ill share it from a general standpoint.Enjoy the IPL, trade smart and if you have any questions or want to bounce ideas off for it let me know.
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Spoke too soon about the run jinxed it
Still tho, in a great position now and hopefully keep building rest of month before the dreaded int break all over again
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LTD list:
Mjondalen
Im out most of the day today but will update this when i get back, good luck if entering
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@darri my eyes how good
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@darri well done, is this a filter you have setup?
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2/2 for the LTDs today
Hope some got on!
Nice run this, traded games thats now 11/11 winners
Data tracking wise had i not done a break of the strat here it is:39/39 winners and a p/l of 57.33pts profit
Average LTD odds of 3.5 -
LTD list:
HIFK
BrageIll update on these later tonight
good luck
