The road to full time
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Winter leagues are BACK!
But please wait to trade them!! Iv said this before but remember last years data is last years data and therefore old data in my opinion. Players change, managers change, tactics change etc all of which could alter past data.
The role of someone basing trades off data or trends (this is both stats and odds) is to find holes in that data. If you cannot find holes then trade that game. There are a tonne of examples here to use.
An easy one new season FORM:
Rangers had been unbeaten in 40 games, 2 games into the new season and boom thats now changed. Had you gone on last years data you would have been bullish that they might have played better against a newly promoted side!!
Advice: just wait and see what teams do first few weeks. Are they as good as last year, have they strengthened. Remember it takes new players a few weeks sometimes to get fluid with new leagues and tactics. Early season fixtures are a prime time for funny results and games that could go against data/past trends.Data example:
Spurs had scored 68 goals last year, kane had goal contributions (goals/assists) of 37 so in total 54% of all goals came through his efforts. If he doesnt play then your data for the next game will be corrupted. This doesnt mean that spurs wont score more/less/same but it does bring in questions. When we are in this situation we want to avoid at all costs. We want to be going into a trade going yep key players are playing, the team is in form if we are after goals from them, manager is unchanged nothing new is gonna affect my future data.So please just avoid id say the first 5 weeks at least. I personally will only be trusting new season data after 10 games played. Thats just my sweet spot as i like teams to have played 5 home and 5 away. Thats when i find best to measure.
Here is my checklist for new season:
wait 10 games or 5 home/away
make sure key players are playing/own knowledge or top goal contributor (goals/assists)
make sure its not a new manager in charge, so for example Rafa is gonna have different tactics to Ancelotti with Everton wait for them to play a decent amount of games and only base data and odds when we have new season form and stats
dont use past season form for future trades, only focus on current season form.As ever these are my own opinions however when iv stuck to these rigidly iv always found my trades spike in consistency and in turn return far better profits each month. Hope this helps some people. Dont get the urge to get involved, yes its great but just enjoy it as a fan not a trader just yet!!
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@martin-walker strategy within a strategy is the best way iv found to mentally understand all of it. Keeps it all very simple. The same idea can be done on scorelines for shg/lates etc too
Once these smaller variables like leagues become a good strategy in their own right is when you will see the spikes in your p/l returns, its why iv paused the LTD for summer leagues as dont want to be throwing away money made from proven winter leagues into summer leagues which are untested. When they all combine it will be a much smoother strategy and variances while still there wont be as harsh and ill have a better understanding as to why certain runs good and bad have happened.
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@darri the leagues, strategy within a strategy is a good explanation and exactly what i was wondering about.
Im at 659 games but some leagues have 4 results.
Always hard to tell how deep to get into each scenario, leagues, scorelines ect -
Fair few questions about this from members of different angles but all boils down to same topic. How do we know what strategy to trade and when to trade it. So what im gonna do is list the MAIN things ill look at for a strategy before im considering it one in which to trade.
Amount of trades:
Big one here, firstly i want to have amassed a big enough data sample here to make me comfortable that this filter or strategy works.
Secondly im wanting to realise how many trades this will be per day/week. Is that a manageable amount during a busy period and does it fit into my lifestyle. There are many full time workers, mums/dads and generally busy people on here, can a high volume strategy work for you? Find a strategy that has a nice return every month and one in which you can handle the amount of volume per day. Dont be choosing a strategy which has terrible variance because remember we will not be able to trade every game or everyday we need to have a life away from the comp/laptop. Trust me iv been doing this for years now doing too much drains you. At first it feels like a luxury it slowly doesnt become one and does indeed become a job. Only those who know will understand just heed the warning. 1 strategy can indeed be enough.Leagues:
For me leagues are what id call a strategy within a strategy. Often when im testing a strategy or filter ill just add all the top leagues from nations i trust. Normally what happens is youll test a filter get to say 500 games and go right im in profit here by some way lets start trading these. But over time certain leagues smash your p/l. This is when testing comes good all over again and why i believe its the best way for long term success. If you wanted to wait for say 100 games before you made a tweak on a filter then do the same with leagues. Dont just look at p/l from a small amount, get it to as much data as possible. If its not doing well to start with dont trade it but dont scrap it. Allow it to breathe and come say 100 games from x league ditch it. There really is no harm in having it still collect data.Odds/Bank management:
This is so overlooked when people think about a strategy. The other day i clocked on early enough to someone who was about to overstake. Bank management is one of those underrated topics. If you have say 1-2 strats and say you get involved in 5 games from both strats at the weekend and say use 4% thats you using 40%. You had better believe in your strategy for that risk. I think martin did a great job of explaining bank management in a blog post. Please stop this need to rush guys. Trading isnt going away. remember that calculation i did explaining compounding.You start with £100 and make 10% every month
Year 1 = £313
Year 2 = £982
Year 3 = £3k
Year 4 = £9.6k
Year 5 = £30kCan you see what i mean. Now imagine you started with £500/or even more than 10% whatever you are at think about the lifestyle you could have in 5 years time. Do not be greedy and start chasing this. Staking is one of the fundamentals to trading.
Remember focus on the long term not the short term. People always go oh ill change when i get to 10k, no you wont because bad discipline will have seeped into you.
Hope this helps one or two who are currently contemplating strats, when to use them, which one to choose etc. Its all down to p/l, amount of trades and can you manage them efficiently enough around your lifestyle. If all 3 are workable then get on with it and make some cash. Sometimes think people want to overcomplicate it but really keeping it all simple is always best. Dont always chase for that extra p/l number look at what works best for you. You see traders on here with growing accounts, not everyone is then flocking to trade every game they do just cause they are missing out. I can see that there are good strats on here but im not gonna do them all. Instead ill maintain with a select few and just build happily without confusing myself. Slow and steady, iv even had to remind myself that in the last few weeks. Keep calm.
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Last post from me probably till thursday now. Been thinking about my trading of late. I feel its been rather high in volume. Plenty of trades not much quality. Think until we hit the proper stage of season (when each league has 10 games) im going to be way more selective again. Iv deviated off script a few times lately. Having a look at my sheets im seeing a lot of trades i could question. Which is rather unlike me and especially given my post from earlier. So for me to be a tad more focussed until around late sept this is the plan:
Trade:
SHGs filter only
Only use the over 1.5 for champs and europa
The Eng vs Ind testsDont trade:
No Late Goals as im not being selective enough and time at screen has gone up too much lately
Continue testing LTDMore focussed setup. Funny how iv lapsed a bit lately with discipline. Unlike me but least im nipping it in bud early.
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Noticed a few trends developing on the forum recently, especially with most sports now fully back up and running and now winter leagues approaching. This need to rush or be involved in trades. Please remember good methods of trading.
Strike rates:
There is now an abundance of SHG and ov 1.5 trades going on now. High strike rate strategies and low returns. People are getting complacent. I think i could be at fault for this somewhat. Im pretty sure since i started doing them more and more have jumped on and tried to do their own, same with 1.5s with keiths posts. Now seeing more and more getting involved. Please ignore the whole winning runs thing. Just because x amount of trades have won oh i should up my stakes here and rake it in, please dont ever do this. High strike rate strategies are to be treated just the same as any other strat. This strategy should still work well with good staking and trade management. Dont be willy nilly with these. Every strategy should still be used correctly otherwise it becomes more towards gambling.Staking:
Please try to stay within the 1-5 pts mark. Anything more especially on these high volume and low return strats. Greed is a killer for these strategies as they lure you in. One unbelievable weekend of a few dull games and you are asking for trouble. Do you remember that weekend around December time when almost all the games posted by everyone failed to have a SHG. Yep these occasions happen. Please remember to manage your bank. Try to think of this as a passive income. Do not be using 10pts per trade like iv seen on the forum recently. Its bad methods of trading.FOMO:
This will never not be an issue. Its part of us as traders to be wanting to be involved. We know the opportunity is there. Please dont fall for it tho. Seen some people jumping onto trades just to get the ball rolling again. Isnt it funny how those trades never work? @Martin used a quote iv loved for ages now: “Failing To Prepare Is Preparing To Fail” — Benjamin Franklin.
Success loves preparation, are you prepared?
Are you ready with pre match stats, know your entry and exits, know your staking, have a tried and tested strategy, are you in a good mindset to trade today, etc! There is so much more that can go wrong than right with trading. Please stop finding the urge to be involved. That can also be used in reference with this forum, dont always feel like you need to be posting matches up. Wait until you know they are good enough,Please look after yourself and your bank. I know covid has been a hard slog for everyone financially and trading seems like the way out. But if it were this easy wouldnt more and more people be sacking off their jobs to come do this?! It takes time and effort. Sensible staking, good mindset and planned trades are what work in this game for long term success. Iv never seen a trader who staked too high, rushed trades or jumped on unplanned trades ever survive this long term, NEVER! Use this forum and look at the examples we have of good traders, keith, john, martin, ryan and me. Why are they still trading and still doing well? They do all the correct methods and cores to trading. Long term is always better than short term thinking.
Oh and yes iv done every single one of these mistakes myself, im just hopeful that i can stop others doing same
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@darri I've read this book its a good one! I also like Ray Dalio Principles for trading but that book isn't always right for people at the time they get it.
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My favourite youtuber has posted a book review on something i think is super relatable to trading.
This idea of a fixed mindset and growth mindset i think could help traders right now. I actually found something like this a while back not this video obvs but via a convo with someone on this forum. I was being too tunnel visioned about how to trade and never listened. Its probably why im quite a pest to the people i think are doing the exact same, there is a degree to stubbornness for traders at times. We can get all caught up in what we are doing thinking we are right and everyone else is missing out. Its just not the case.
Please have a watch of this video. At the end of every part there are around 5 see if you can spot trading related examples, its only a short video (9 mins) but each part has a superb relevancy to trading and the mindset needed to trade.
Please be coming away with this going yes i actually do want to have that growth mindset rather than fixed and yes perfection is flawed and progression is the key.
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Fair few posts last 24hrs from me but kind of getting back into the groove now that cricket season playing wise for me is coming to an end and wanting to get back to having trading ticking along nicely. Been a funny little period this for football. Been speaking to a couple of people on here privately about how even i can be quite a overthinker when it comes to trading. A lot of data crunching makes me start to think about possible tweaks. Quite simply im going against all the points i raise on this blog. Listen to my own advice.
The funny thing is im sat here contemplating changes when football is still averaging +9.5pts per month. The reason for me contemplating changes is due to summer leagues not progressing as fast as winter leagues. LTD didnt perform well enough for summer leagues, SHG has been ultra slow in picking any games. There seems to have been a lull right now with my football trades. In the last 4 months my football trades have come out to 38pts profit. For me and this might sound greedy or bullish but id have wanted double that.
Iv toying about with ideas in the background but really im being super stupid. My strategies are all still fine. I have had a few SHGs and LTDs in testing since and all are making profits (the LTD testing sheet is a relaxed filter not my actual) was i too quick to pause, probably. See why i keep trying to tell people its not about finding a good strategy, thats EASY, its managing it thats hard.
Im still persisting with no LTDs until im satisfied with all leagues but SHGs will remain and iv added back into the mix my Late goal strategy, which is kind of the reason people took an interest in my trading. Im enjoying this reduced bank size again. Going from 20k to just £1k has been an enjoyable realisation that it wasnt just a total fluke. Sometimes when people have bigger banks you can become unimaginative and even small gains still look good. Iv enjoyed coming back down and seeing the true value of my trading again. Everyone always likes the start of a new venture.
Key takeaways:
LTD on pause until all leagues are consistent
Late goals re added to supplement the pausing of LTD
More inplay trades will be added
Large testing of new strategies underway
9.5pts profit per month average, solid and im being silly wishing for more, not in line with winter league progressAnyway just a ramble but thats what this blog is my own personal area of the forum to talk about my thoughts on trading right now.
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Cricket Update:
Eng vs Ind Test: +2.05 pts
So was going to update last night but wanted to do the post below and have that as the top post for people to see. This was one for the traders this game. Almost everything going to script. With weather being a huge hinderance pre match thoughts of getting 5 full days was extremely bleak. Hence the short draw odds from start.
As ever with all my test match trading i wait until day 3 to plan any trades. In fact it wasnt until day 4 that i saw any trades. I backed the draw. England had just went past indias lead from 1st innings and i felt that they would at least be at crease for long enough and with the potential of rain make this a slow slog of cricket. They did and put on +200 for them to chase. With the odds tumbling on the draw i took my exit trade.
Day 5 approaches and i was bemused about englands price. Yes i knew that india would come out swinging if the chance came, meaning that price could come down if india lost wickets but i fully expected a draw or india win, so a lay of eng was needed. Rain came and added to the profits from day 4.
Overall a good test match for me, 2 trades executed and 2 winning, ill be happy if this trend continues. Cricket looking good as always and once winter leagues (football) restart we should see the bank regain its sharp rises instead of these smaller gains. -
@darri mentioned this on Matt’s blog about how you spoke to me about this going back a while now and totally agree that it’s great for the trading mind and has other benefits to trading also.
Whilst I haven’t been able to follow it 100% to the letter I’ve been able to enough to notice a positive change about how I go about things which has seen profits improve and mindset. Again a top blog post well put that a lot of traders will get something out of.
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@darri I need to do this 100%
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Posted a bit of a trick of the mind exercise for a member on the forum about how to combat this mindset of tracking daily and weekly profits. How often do you have a strategy in testing that is working wonders, then you start trading it and it hits a few losses and now seems like your fighting it. Not long after you ditch it. Iv done that countless times. Sometimes iv even put months into testing and sometimes even tracked loads of inplay trading which as we know is time consuming.
For me i have a pretty active mind and tend to overthink things, im pretty positive a lot of traders have this, the analysts. When that comes to trading sometimes when a trade loses im like right why did that lose. Sometimes id then tweak something and spoil what could easily have been something good long term. How did i combat this?
When you have an abundance of data and proof that this strategy will work long term, trust it. If you are away to put money on a trade make sure you 100% trust it. I still see people saying gotta be in it to win it etc but actually thats flawed. Thats just you hoping to swim above water. Build an understanding that this will work, the mentality of knowing something is above average is a great feeling. Still see traders rush things, see something hit 20-30 wins and go yeah im missing out here. Then to be caught on the decline of the un tested strat. TEST TEST TEST. Look for example at my ltd, was working wonders for me in testing and with winter leagues. I was so tunnel visioned i thought this would easily transition to summer leagues. It hasnt. The difference im doing to others is taking a step back and going wait iv a nagging doubt here that this isnt fully tested yet. That seeps into your mentality and means your then scrutinising every trades data. This is flawed. Look at what guys on here are doing who are doing well, realise that they adapt, stop the stubbornness (i had that massively too read the blog from 2 years ago)
THE TRICK:
Once you have the strategy and the proof it works, trust it. Now comes the mindset trick. How to stop worrying about each trade and your running data. Go to betfair and in the top right click on your balance and click hide balance. This was my very first trick i ever posted on here.
Next i want you for your next trade to place it and then turn off all notifications. Take it off your flash/sofascore lists. Focus on your next trade, make sure it is fitting your strategy and do the same.
Next end of the day dont check the scores or betfair.
WAIT until sunday night or monday morning and check your results. Now you arent just looking at daily ups and downs. You are now seeing a truer representation of your trading and strategy.
Do this for a whole month. You shouldnt be worried about your bank as you should never be staking too much. This is actually a good exercise to test if you are staking TOO MUCH because you will start to panic and force yourself to check.This little trick is something that helped me. I dont do it now because iv already done it and know actually even if i have bad days im still progressing.
What are your tricks of the mind that you have found helpful to your trading? Ill post more of these because i used to be weak mentally with betting that i needed these silly tricks to help me get my mindset corrected.
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Thanks for posting @Darri will be following with interest as I get back into football trading this season after pretty much stopping at the start of this year
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Have made changes to this strategy post
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@darri said in The road to full time:
For those following my LTD rest of summer leagues im only going to be testing it. Having had such a good run with these in winter leagues and all testing done in the winter leagues, i think i should just test rest of summer with these. Then restart the winter leagues when they come. Was a bit presumptuous of me to think this would fit the summer leagues profiles. From testing japan and aus seem fine but the others are all around break even and scandinavian leagues all seem to be at a loss. Ill go away and test remainder of summer see if this might just be a winter league strategy. From testing this strategy has made now 62 pts. It was operating at nearly 0.42 pts per trade but since summer its stagnated and isnt moving upwards as much as it should be.
Ill continue with SHG/Champs-Europa until these can be re added
ill of course now miss 15 in a row winners now but im in this for the long term not the short 
Good to know! Cheers Darri
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For those following my LTD rest of summer leagues im only going to be testing it. Having had such a good run with these in winter leagues and all testing done in the winter leagues, i think i should just test rest of summer with these. Then restart the winter leagues when they come. Was a bit presumptuous of me to think this would fit the summer leagues profiles. From testing japan and aus seem fine but the others are all around break even and scandinavian leagues all seem to be at a loss. Ill go away and test remainder of summer see if this might just be a winter league strategy. From testing this strategy has made now 62 pts. It was operating at nearly 0.42 pts per trade but since summer its stagnated and isnt moving upwards as much as it should be.
Ill continue with SHG/Champs-Europa until these can be re added
ill of course now miss 15 in a row winners now but im in this for the long term not the short -
So the irony of me telling people about this whole BTC index idea and that they should be doing it, here the thing i cant. Iv been trading a few of the others strategies. The problem i have compared to others is i have good strategies already and im actually of a very good balance of what markets im targetting. What i realise is actually most of these strategies target far too similar markets. So my original strats and the ones i suggest. With that in mind ill not be persisting with it. Would i still recommend it YES! Just me personally im a control freak. I want to know why a trade lost and the data behind that loss. For me i trust the other strats will come good, keiths from my data that i asked from others doesnt seem to be doing as well as it was earlier and ryans like my SHG is struggling to pick up any games just yet.
So back to my own portfolio. Once i have this new strategy in the TEST sheet of my results ill have such an amazing balanced portfolio markets and numbers wise. A nice ticking strategy and 1-2 main high quality ones which are very specific. Should see me have a nice ticking bank. Cricket then becomes my main inplay trade and the one that can fluctuate as its more about opportunities rather than data for them.
