The road to full time
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So been asked this a couple times now and after my post around price earlier probably a good time to make this post. Its regarding my two second half goal strats the SHG and Late goals. Why do I do both?
SHG: im entering the market to win 1pt if there is one more goal in the 2nd half. I dont enter unless the price to lay is 5.0 or less on the unders. This typically is looking to get matched between HT-55 mins anything after that and i wouldnt like to be entering.
Late goals: im entering the market around the 65-75 min mark and looking for one more goal in the latter stages of the game. Typically im looking for prices on the overs to be anything over 1.65 but looking to average 1.7. There are more variables here in that im looking for key players, inplay stats/flow etc.
So now the question is why dont i just do one of those. Im not exactly spreading the risk here if a game is goalless ill lose both trades. The thing is they arent the same strategy based on two key things. The shg is powered by pre match data, the lates are a combination of pre/inplay data. The SHG price is around 5.0 to lay so in theory 1.25 to back. The Late is around 1.7 to back.
Lets have a look at them in the results tab:
You can clearly see that these are very different strategies. Look at their strike rates needed to be profitable. For me a strategy is based around an actual strike rate and its risk/reward. The ways in which we find trades to fit those is upto us to find what variables etc matter. But really at the core of any strategy are two things, strike rate and price. You need both to marry up to make a good strategy, one doesnt live without the other.
I see too many people being hopeful on strategies based on strike rates but get bamboozled by the price actually on offer. The idea of man city, salzburg, bayern, atalanta etc these teams yes will pop on the filter but do they represent value to your strategy. Dont just go accepting things. TEST TEST TEST. I still feel like many believe this to be a fake thing. In that it sounds too easy. Its not easy actually it takes a bit of time not just to find a good strategy but to manage yourself mentally with it. You DO have to put a bit of time and effort into doing it. Im still adapting my strategies you never really stop, but he reason im so consistent is experience within a select few markets. Master one at a time or youll take forever to be as knowledgeable in those markets.
So i trade those 2 strategies even tho they are the same markets, purely because they are 2 completely different strategies. Different strike rates, different prices, different risk reward, different time periods, different expected goal times etc. Dont feel the need to be so robotic with trading. At first yes that way is the best way to learn. But not everything needs to be setup in a machine like way. Youll miss out on sniping the great opportunities and youll only know that if you master that market.
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This esl is essentially all the pro traders in btc joining up together in secret to then start their own site, even tho its the same type of info they will provide, same service, they would then charge a premium price, just to show their trades and advice. Making trading non accessible to some of the less well off people because the barrier to entry is beyond them. It goes against the whole point of building a community and working with each other to provide better liquidity for all. We all make money from trading on our own levels, yet we all help each other to survive at trading. The filthy rich just dont get that. Ripping the heart out of winning and losing/competitive sport. There is always something deep down that the fear of losing and how that affects us. If we lose too many trades we lose our money and bank. If teams lose they get punished from bad form. But its that idea in our minds that makes the fact that when we win it means more. When teams overcome that fear of losing and instead prosper like a leicester or even a west ham and leicester this season. Its just the same when we double our bank and up our stakes, we have managed to avoid losing too much and have earnt it. If man city went onto win the champs league this year they would have earnt it. Now they can just accept if they lose cause they have had their payday. Kind of like that youtuber fight in boxing, ben askren went for the payday and smiled afterwards. He won either way. Thats not what sport is about. The fear of losing is what makes winning all the better! If we never stand to lose from our investments then this becomes a ponzi scheme and i hope laws prevent this. Anyway this all could be wasted words as im sure that there will be many twists and turns this thing will provide over the next while.
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reworded above
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What an interesting last few 24hrs for football. Couple of things im looking forward to seeing:
How rigid will the leagues and nations stand with the threat of banning those who take place. Will England really ban this generation from playing. Will the prem ban Liverpool and United the biggest clubs in the country. All of that has repercussions on money which is what this whole thing is about. Will they have the bottle to miss out on them?
Will players the likes of foden and kane really want to miss out on playing for their country. Football is different to cricket but we see it there too, some players skip international duty to go get the money on offer in the IPL. Could we see that in football. I mean the talks are that this league would make more money for the bottom team than they would if they won the prem and the champ league
The whole new league is managed by, yep, the clubs chairmans/presidents
we all thought the corruption of the qatar bid was ripe, how easy would this be. Its funny how its the clubs struggling financially that are most in favour and leading the group. Could we see them initially run it then sell it back to uefa or someone independent for a wad of money 
12 founding clubs, how long before the bigger teams outside of that start to get fomo. The biggest players in the world will want to be on the biggest stage. Be interesting to see the will power of those who have said no so far once the money is visible and the news isnt so toxic. I think those clubs are only saying no based on league repercussions, if this gets worked out they will join. They are only the biggest teams for money and if they are missing out they no longer will be the biggest, plain and simple.
How far does this go. Iv said im against it but i hold no bias, spurs are my second team to support after celtic, but i dont really care too much what happens with them. Its sport. The new modern age of how to monopolise is here. TV subs and sponsors. Its funny how sky are allowing people to voice this but i bet they will in the background be in a bidding war for it. Money always wins. This will either end up happening and football moves to a new era of wealth and valuations, or, the leagues and uefa agree to work in tandem. Either way it shows that money is power in business. Footballs power is moving all the time. First it was players getting managers sacked now its clubs rising agaisnt governing bodies and making their own leagues
I can see why the lure is there. The money, the fact these big teams play each other every other week. I totally get that. But how much affect does it have on the teams outside of this league. Huge! The funnelling process in football is heavily dependant on these teams.Lets just hope that this is merely a starting point for negotiation, iv said this a couple of times now, messi does this all the time, threatens to leave barca so that he gets a wage increase they cant afford
its just a negotiation tool. If uefa and the leagues dont negotiate they will lose out on their biggest assets. In the meantime the fan will suffer as always. Doesnt bother me as trading wont change, i only really ever watch football now outside of trading if its scotland or celtic. I lost interest a while ago in just being a fan. Money has already made it hard to watch and the gaps are already huge. Maybe this will work in that regards. Im sure id watch it and im sure everyone else will too. Its just stinks for how easy this has been for them and we are all angry but will we be won over in the end. -
@martin-futter yep but only one inplay football trade bud since friday night, just saying the facts lad its really not a big deal
also you run the site lad course you have 15 notifications and for that i commend your efforts 
i prefer the non reliance of inplay trades means that traders are finding either new ways (set and forgets)or arent relying on a tipping type service, which is good for btc and its concept. Just thought the weekend was quiet not a dig, just interesting to see when me or keith dont post that its quiet on the football thread trading wise. -
MLS, CHINA, SWEDEN, ARGENTINA popping up on the fixture lists , they are finally here
the summer leagues! As a trader and someone who has been on this forum a while, everyone does better in the summer leagues. Plenty of reasons: more focus as less games going on, China and MLS are goal crazy meaning even the bad trades can be saved, really looking forward to this next part of the year. There are a few more leagues classed as summer leagues that i will be trading but boy its good to see them. Will be a while before they become tradeable games for me but always good entering this period of the year, especially given what happened last year. -
@chris-osborne yeah i did think that too but only 1 live trade all weekend? Plus this isnt just a england only forum. Anyway doesnt matter but just shows that when me or keith dont post it is quite quiet, not as many inplay traders as there used to be, mostly set and forget strategies around now. I just cant get the time to post right now with ipl on and video work happening.
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@darri probably something to do with school holidays and lockdown restrictions being reduced in England meaning pubs and restaurants can open outside spaces and all shops that want to reopen are effectively open.
Can also meet another household in there garden so be barbecues and the like going on
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Also how quiet has it been on the forum this weekend? Only been 1 inplay trade posted by anyone all weekend in the football
Sorry i havent had the time to post inplay trades for the football just been focussing on IPL and other outside trading stuff. I think that will be the norm when t20 competitions are on because it does require me to be active there and choose a good entry. Just been doing the set and forgets on the football which have ticked along nicely this weekend, nothing major but they add up. -
IPL update
RCB vs KKR: +2.15 points/%of bank
Look how big a difference it is to the scores when a settled batsmen stays until the end. If you look at my sheets that was the perfect pace and setup by RCB for a big total. The two overseas boys earning their money. With a target of over 200 really there wasnt gonna be chase in my opinion based on the data. But as with all things ipl the markets react to even a sniff of opportunity and thats when i got on. KKR getting off to a good start. I jumped on backing rcb. The thing is with these markets the prices on offer only ever reflect the match situation at the time and momentum bias is huge. But i didnt see it like that and instead felt that even if this wicket was performing better than previously it would still be an ask. Chennai, whatever wicket is prepared, will always be a tough one to chase with. RCB comfortably getting wickets at good moments and i didnt even need to trade out.
DC vs PK: +1.29 points/% of bank
Sat here writing this and the win flatters the actual decision. I really wasnt happy with this trade. Itchy fingers, confidence from the first game and just wanting to get on, all of these resulting in a poor trade that im glad won. If you look at both innings comparison there wasnt much difference for the time i entered. I kind of went against my normal thoughts and instead just saw dhawan smacking to all parts and wanted to get a piece of the action. Thankfully DC went on to easily win here but not happy at the odds taken as not sure how much value was actually on offer and more got caught up in it a bit. Still tho its a win in the book and just move onto the next and make sure i go back to whats been working all this time.
Overall good day, makes a change when its not the pitch and bowlers dictating, makes decisions 10x easier and a nice healthy profit to finish the weekend with. Always good to see stoinis bagging the winning runs too
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@darri said in The road to full time:
I have another couple of outright trades waiting for next weeks round of games ill post them up if they qualify.
That would be great!
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This post is deleted!
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@darri loving these mate keep em coming just catching up with most .
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@daniel-cooper good stuff mate, lets hope liverpool beat leeds now their only hope is from the league for europe. West ham slipping up today didnt help but they still have enough to come. See it would be easy to look at each weekend and get annoyed at these things. But really its taking a position over the remaining games. There is risk with every trade but i do still believe that based on comparisons of remaining games i feel leicester, west ham and liverpool have better chance of meeting the points threshold for top 4. Chelsea have 2 presumed wins brighton and fulham then the rest are why the trade is still active all teams that will put up a fight, 2 of those games are against west ham and leicester, 2 key games in deciding top 4. They are also busy with real madrid in europe. Chelsea could easily go romp home, they looked good today (fa cup) and win them all (thats sport) but i feel there are enough reasons to lay at that price for a trade.
IPL wise, Sunrisers look terrible but have only been playing on this chennai wicket, which isnt suiting them well with no middle order batsmen and they have been playing about with their lineups. Mumbai and Delhi both have now got their full strength teams with all overseas players now available, i just feel that these 2 will at least hit the semis, hopefully not against each other.
The thing with longer trades like these is you can critique every single game in between both, good and bad. I always make sure i think of these just like any other trade, if they win or lose its just part of the process. But its all about whether the price still offers value at the time. I dont feel like exiting either. Like i say i wont be actively trading these by getting out at certain prices, these are set and forget for me so win or lose. It wont bother me if either loses, to me these are just another inplay type trade, but i wouldnt be entering them if i didnt think it was value at the time. I have another couple of outright trades waiting for next weeks round of games ill post them up if they qualify.
In terms of trading cricket, im glad they are decent reads. I find cricket trading the most interesting thing in my trading right now. Because of the variables it does genuinely become your opinion vs the market. In football there isnt really anything else that affects price other than time decay and scoreline. In cricket there are loads of movements every ball of an over. Which is why football is safer but cricket has bigger potential.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@daniel-cooper if you are worried about them or feel you have over staked then get out now as this weekend could be a big swing in prices. West ham play newcastle and leeds vs liverpool. If both fail to win then that chelsea price will come way in, also leicester have inner turnmoil with those covid breaches, hopefully rodgers realises they are one of our teams opposing chelsea and fields his strongest team
But if you have staked with something similar to my recommendation of points/stake then you should be able to not care too much about individual rounds/matches. Even if these lose at the end they should only be a small loss to your bank.However, its the run in thats the reason for these trades. Basically we have 3 teams on our side against one. And 2/3 of those play chelsea at some stage. Thats were the swings ideally happen but for me i kinda see these as set and forgets. Chelsea going through and still in FA cup means their schedule becomes even harder compared to the other teams we have. I think they have a good chance against real and i think they might think about champs league and fa cup if still in them close season. The ipl and top 4 trades i doubt ill cash out of mate.
Hey Darri! Thanks for getting back to me - sorry for the delayed response!
No not worried nor overstaked, was simply curious as to what your analysis of the current situation was, although like you have said its quite early days on both fronts and these are much longer term Outrights trades.
I really ought to take some time to learn and understand Cricket! Your cricket posts are always so compelling and great reads - makes it seem so interesting yet I don’t understand the sport
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@darri mate did something similar. Laid SRH after Warner fell around 1.42 got out at 2.60ish before Krunyal Pandya bowled then used green to put a bit more to back MI at 3.0 before Bumrah and Boult were due to come back into the attack. Happy with the trades stoked with the green.
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IPL update:
Mumbai vs Sunrisers: +4.4 points/%of bank
This is one of those situations with regards to this chennai pitch that as a fan its not great you'd prefer big run chases but as a trader you cash in on the markets over reaction to thinking these are bad totals! MI getting to 150 on that track was around par id say. With this in mind the reaction to making sunrisers such heavy favs considering they never really put a big difference between their scores in comparison at any stage of their innings was crazy. I did however see for the first time that at the half way stage before sunrisers chase that the pitch was now included in the market price. But itchy fingers and panic sets in when they get off to good starts in powerplays. This is why trading and not gambling always wins. When the spinners for MI came on i built a small stake on initially looking for two relatively new batsmen to be at crease. Warner, bairstow and pandey all dismissed alot rest on shankars shoulders as the others are all inexperienced or dont have the cricket IQ needed for such an innings they prefer just to hit out. When all three were dismissed I placed the rest of my stake. Shankar the big danger got himself out and the price tumbled. Cash in day for traders
Just wanted to do this post because it highlights the need to think like a trader even on fast moving markets. Going against the market and backing yourself does pay off. Easy for us to think about backing heavy favs all the time but sniping these opportunities is what trading can bring. These make the difference long term.
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@daniel-cooper if you are worried about them or feel you have over staked then get out now as this weekend could be a big swing in prices. West ham play newcastle and leeds vs liverpool. If both fail to win then that chelsea price will come way in, also leicester have inner turnmoil with those covid breaches, hopefully rodgers realises they are one of our teams opposing chelsea and fields his strongest team
But if you have staked with something similar to my recommendation of points/stake then you should be able to not care too much about individual rounds/matches. Even if these lose at the end they should only be a small loss to your bank.However, its the run in thats the reason for these trades. Basically we have 3 teams on our side against one. And 2/3 of those play chelsea at some stage. Thats were the swings ideally happen but for me i kinda see these as set and forgets. Chelsea going through and still in FA cup means their schedule becomes even harder compared to the other teams we have. I think they have a good chance against real and i think they might think about champs league and fa cup if still in them close season. The ipl and top 4 trades i doubt ill cash out of mate.
