The road to full time
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@eamonn-hogan ill message you later about looking into something then. Might need a few heads together to track stuff
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Now that im pretty set on how im trading going forward in terms of my core trading, im now looking for other avenues in the set and forget space. One sport that ticks that box is Golf. Iv quite a good history of trading this, some who have been following this for a while will see iv made some pretty cracking selections and those that got on them made profits. Iv only really targeted the big tournaments however, so if i was to add it to my trading id need some form of way to make this work for the less media hyped events also. Today was my beginning of that.
Iv been trading with a side bank that i use for testing strats that im interested in. This just allows me to track prices in play if im unable to track it live. Iv come at this as ever with a data point of view. Today i backed 3 players pre tee off. All at very handsome prices, you dont need big stakes in golf. 2 of those players currently reside in the top 5 as we speak and the price change has been astronomical. Thats just round 1. But already i could have locked in a very nice profit and even left some profit on the 2 players for an extra bonus for future rounds.
If there are any golf traders/fans who are interested in golf trading im not interested as such in what you already do but im willing to talk about building a model for this to become sustainable for predicting good golf selections. I get that higher prices have less liquidity however even min stakes provides a cushion for trading even with large bank sizes when backing.
Its going to be one of my fun projects so to speak for the next year or so. I got into golf trading through draft kings, now im wanting to not be restricted and instead build a compounding bank around it. Ill document the progress on here as i go along
Would definitely be interested in the golf trading.
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Now that im pretty set on how im trading going forward in terms of my core trading, im now looking for other avenues in the set and forget space. One sport that ticks that box is Golf. Iv quite a good history of trading this, some who have been following this for a while will see iv made some pretty cracking selections and those that got on them made profits. Iv only really targeted the big tournaments however, so if i was to add it to my trading id need some form of way to make this work for the less media hyped events also. Today was my beginning of that.
Iv been trading with a side bank that i use for testing strats that im interested in. This just allows me to track prices in play if im unable to track it live. Iv come at this as ever with a data point of view. Today i backed 3 players pre tee off. All at very handsome prices, you dont need big stakes in golf. 2 of those players currently reside in the top 5 as we speak and the price change has been astronomical. Thats just round 1. But already i could have locked in a very nice profit and even left some profit on the 2 players for an extra bonus for future rounds.
If there are any golf traders/fans who are interested in golf trading im not interested as such in what you already do but im willing to talk about building a model for this to become sustainable for predicting good golf selections. I get that higher prices have less liquidity however even min stakes provides a cushion for trading even with large bank sizes when backing.
Its going to be one of my fun projects so to speak for the next year or so. I got into golf trading through draft kings, now im wanting to not be restricted and instead build a compounding bank around it. Ill document the progress on here as i go along
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Sometimes i can get quite bullish about certain topics and fail to grab the reigns a bit. I want people to know that sometimes its hard on a forum to convey what they really meant especially if you are not good with written words. I have tended to clash a few times with people on here and in time realised my flaw or mis written word that makes me come across wrong.
When im posting im doing it because i feel it offers value to either myself for accountability/improve something of my own trading or offers you value. I get it wrong sometimes verbally with others about trading. Im thinking to reign it all back a bit and instead of going to comment when i want to add something ill make sure its a well written post rather than me being a bit bullish on a subject.
Hopefully im still valued for my opinions and lets try make 2021 a good year in the end. While my trading can do the talking for me, ill work on the communication a bit better as we go along. Its never meant to be in a bad way. Someone messaged me and said i was a heart on sleeve type trader and honest so hopefully thats what people can expect. Im only ever trying to provide or receive value. Remember im paying to be on this site just like anyone else, im trying to be the best trader i can be and hopefully have a good blog for people to follow.
I know out of context this makes no sense but iv rubbed people up the wrong way at times on here and while ill voice my opinion if i deem it of value to a question i do need to allow others to voice theirs also
but ill never just be someone who doesnt think constructively and try to bring something to table value wise, hope thats what people know me for. Its a forum and debate should be healthyI feel you have grown a lot as a person and a trader since you joined, just keep remembering that some people are more sensitive than others.
One thing you will learn as a successful trader is that the majority of traders are not in the same boat, therefore they may not be as open to criticism as you are. It's not easy when you are not winning to be reminded of that.
So, one thing I have learnt is even if you see something that they are doing wrong, you don't call them out on it in a public way but rather talk to them personally or word your response in a way that is a extremely positive.
Also, remember that members are their own agents of change, we help them of course but they have to enact the change, it's their life at the end of the day and they are allowed to live it as they please. I feel like sometimes you want to save everyone and make them do it your way, I think that comes from a good place, but not everyone wants or has asked for that.
Like I said, you have grown a lot and you are much better at the diplomacy of a forum now. You add a lot to the place and we love having you here, just as we do everyone else. We are a big family at the end of the day.
Keep up the good work!
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@darri the problem with forums is that cant really get to know someone properly so you only have the written word as a guide, some people can write what they mean really well others not so good, its about reading between the lines and with an open mind, Everyone has opinions and sometimes those opinions will clash but if no one voiced an opinion then the forum is pointless, a lot of that earlier was mixed opinions taken out of context and blown up. i wouldnt worry too much you add a lot of value to this site as do others, i dont think anyone would think differently of you or anyone for a slight disagreement, well thats my opinion anyway
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Sometimes i can get quite bullish about certain topics and fail to grab the reigns a bit. I want people to know that sometimes its hard on a forum to convey what they really meant especially if you are not good with written words. I have tended to clash a few times with people on here and in time realised my flaw or mis written word that makes me come across wrong.
When im posting im doing it because i feel it offers value to either myself for accountability/improve something of my own trading or offers you value. I get it wrong sometimes verbally with others about trading. Im thinking to reign it all back a bit and instead of going to comment when i want to add something ill make sure its a well written post rather than me being a bit bullish on a subject.
Hopefully im still valued for my opinions and lets try make 2021 a good year in the end. While my trading can do the talking for me, ill work on the communication a bit better as we go along. Its never meant to be in a bad way. Someone messaged me and said i was a heart on sleeve type trader and honest so hopefully thats what people can expect. Im only ever trying to provide or receive value. Remember im paying to be on this site just like anyone else, im trying to be the best trader i can be and hopefully have a good blog for people to follow.
I know out of context this makes no sense but iv rubbed people up the wrong way at times on here and while ill voice my opinion if i deem it of value to a question i do need to allow others to voice theirs also
but ill never just be someone who doesnt think constructively and try to bring something to table value wise, hope thats what people know me for. Its a forum and debate should be healthy -
Up early and cracking on with some work, before I start to enjoy the int break and peace, thought id run through the change a bit more. Its really about how im staking all this and what type of trades im doing.
LTD: staking reverts back to what it was before. Average liability is around 2.6pts per trade.
Midweek: SHG is 2pts per trade/Lates also 2pts per tradeBeen working on testing that approach with past data for midweek action and looks promising. Over the rest of int break ill continue back testing when i can.
Based on all of the data and back testing so far and with a small outlay for trades looking around 15-25pts profit per month. Seems manageable. re adjusting staking to accommodate adding in midweeks, dont want to be adding more outlay just to be more active. Should be full on autopilot for after int break and get back to business. Sheets setup and already have a set way of trading the midweeks planned
Wont be posting much between now and end of int break, only coming on if there is a LTD to post, but if you have any questions fire away 
id encourage people to avoid these int games, just accept the break. Int breaks can sometimes derail people and their mindset. -
@darri said in The road to full time:
LTD today:
Trelleborgs (sweden)
Yesterday we had the first loser of the month, hopefully this wins and get back to winning ways
Thats now 2 losers in a row, for reference thats not happened before but was expecting it to happen at some stage. That league has been flagged on my data sheet as a potential league to avoid, but its still a few away before id consider any decisions. Doesnt look like many trades now for a while but will post when there are. Enjoy the int break, shame its so frequent right now these silly breaks.
Also two 2-2s in a row now
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Sorry for the flurry of posts, last one until the LTD trade update. Ill be resuming the charity sheet. Ill be placing these bets/trades before lunchtime each day and wont be posting them on the blog. I might occasionally give an update on them here but dont want to spam the blog with just trades, im not a tipster. So instead all bets will be put onto the sheet before lunch time. Goalscorers are just English Prem and the others are for more leagues. Remember this is just for charity, a bit of fun and keeps people away from fomo or huge risky bets. End of every month we will hopefully compound the bank with 50% of profits and the rest gets added to a charity pot that we will donate to when it hits certain levels. We started well with the goalscorers couple weeks ago so hopefully we can continue.
This also allows me to in a sense min stake a new strategy im looking into with regards to match odds. Trying to find value trades/bets for a set and forget approach. Ill explain them more as the season goes. Will mainly be a english prem focussed approach to all of this.
Nothing is changing to the LTDs still be posting them when they pop up like normal, just dont want to spam with "bets" even if im deeming them value. If the new strategy compounds the bank well enough them perhaps ill add it. But the main aim is just to see how these do and try boost a decent bank and along the way raise money for a charity/reduce our fomo to use our main banks for boredom.
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This change will also see the return of me explaining my trades. If there are good examples ill explain how/why iv traded that game. People might remember the rosenborg and spurs trades examples iv done. I really enjoyed doing them, think people liked them also. Hope people can see why im doing this, and why im still staying clear of weekend stuff, not only because of volume but also lifestyle reasons. Sharing all this because im showing transparency but also for people to see if this might suit them also. My LTD is quite restrictive at times being quite tight in criteria, but hopefully a more opportunistic strategy can aide this with some midweek games. A balanced way of trading midweek followed by set and forget only weekends
hopefully this is my final adjustment for the year. I really would like a set way of trading going into 2022. -
So iv been talking to someone about my own trading, decided to speak to someone who doesnt use this forum so he isnt aware of what im posting already or what stage im at. I just wanted to chat about the way im adapting my trading to be more healthy and fit it around my lifestyle. Seeing if there was something I could do here to make this all a better and slicker machine.
You will now notice iv added a late goals sheet to my results and tidied all my sheets up. Iv put all the old strats into the "old category" easy to see the results now.
So late goals are back. Here is how im gonna play them. These will be primarily for midweek games. This will most likely be Champs/Europa matches. This allows me to be able to dive in and out of midweek football when i like. These will not be filter based and will just be me selecting the games. Please read guides iv done in past as to how i trade these. My main look at these will be for late lcs and late ltd. Ill be posting these on the football thread. Saying what odds i got on at and if ltd what iv exited with etc. Still full transparency as ever.
This means im left with a trading schedule that could look like this:
Midweek: LTD/Late Goals
Weekends: LTDsMy plan is that these late goals can be super flexible and ill only look to trade if i can watch the game and also if i want to watch the game. This plan also leaves the door open to more set and forget trading, looking to test different strats. While im not going to be taking time out of saturdays im very rarely doing anything fancy on a tuesday night when the champs league is on or when monday night football is on.
Remember these arent filter picks these are just me finding good use of my own time to hopefully make more money. Winter is coming, so less and less fancy plans are being made in regards to socials etc so im left with a lot more spare time midweek.
Really happy with this whole schedule now and managing my time well. I was being stubborn about only set and forgets. But this means busy weekends are still set and forget and then when i have time midweek i can look to increase profits if and when. Should make for a nice balanced portfolio.
Late goals is what got me to this stage and grew my bank to a full time level before. Hoping iv still got it
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LTD today:
Trelleborgs (sweden)
Yesterday we had the first loser of the month, hopefully this wins and get back to winning ways
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@kevin-pepper that's a very sensible way of doing it, personally for me I dont lay at 5.5 I used that to say at min 50 the odds are roughly between 4.5 - 5.5. I lay at max 4.5 that gives me a liability of 3.5 % of my bank which I'm ok with. From all the data I've got, the few bad runs I've got there wouldnt damage the bank to much
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@liam-willis id say staking is the first thing to amend before when to compound. Right now these 2 things are big issues for some people and will bite them. There is no point compounding if your still staking too high. Both need to be adjusted for these high strike rate strats in my opinion based purely on risk. Stake less and compound less often. The need for high strike rates is a human thing, we like constant winners, but its not as easy as that. These strategies need to be handled differently to others and hopefully these kind of posts help people realise this before it hurts them.
Some very sound advice here.
When I'm backing, I know I've got a max liability of 1 point ie my stake.
When I'm laying I treat my liability as a point so with the example below of laying at 5.5 then my stake will be adjusted down to manage my liability risk.
So if I'm backing at £10 a point then I might work with a 100 pt bank so notionally £1000.
If I'm laying then my liability would be £10 so if laying at 5.5 my stake will be just over £2. Therefore if I have a winning lay I will make c. 0.2 pts which ensures any compounding of my liability based on points won is much more gradual.
I guess that's just my way of agreeing about staking less and compound less often
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@liam-willis the issue with a lot of these high strike rate strats is how big the gap is between odds and strike rate. So for example, coin flip approach, lets say we have 50/50 chance of heads/tails. Your getting offered 2.10 to back another head. You know over a large sample than you will come out good. However, thats with a large sample, the issue is how people are trying to manage their bank around this. If you compound your stakes after x amount earned or per day/per week your susceptible to the bad run. Now thats just with a even money type scenario, the issue with these strategies is the risk reward is so wide compared to that. Yes you can have an 85% strike rate, but if your laying a 5.5 average say for a weekend, i saw someone was doing 36 trades over whole weekend so both sat and sunday. Thats a bank risk of 162pts, your risking more than your bank at start of weekend! Even half of that lets say you trade 9 games each day, with an average of 5.5. Thats still risking 40pts per day and an overall of 80pts for the weekend! ALL it takes is one bad weekend here and there goes all your progress. There is far too much risk going on here and people chasing banks and inevitably they are going nowhere long term, they might have good short term runs but they will never get anywhere long term the bank will keep pulling them back because of the way people are managing these. People are over reliant on past data, but that past data records can be broken.. The same patterns wont always emerge in terms of when those losses occur.
Hope iv explained that well enough. Yes high strike rates can work but almost everyone on here thats doing these high risk strats and staking aggressively with that much volume is one bad run away from pure disaster. People arent managing these strategies the way they should be which is for the long term instead they are compounding so swiftly. Iv been trying to say this to people but its hard to tell them when they are on a winning run thinking they are untouchable, we all feel like that after a good run. But trading will never be that easy unfortunately and its all about slow and steady progress.
Just think for a second about the bank outlay above and really understand the risk element here. Take liam for example, he has an 85% strike rate and will profit long term with those odds, but if he is staking aggressively to win 1pt from odds of 5.5 and above, whats to say his 15% losses wont occur in that run? Out of 100 trades he will on average lose 15, well given the volume people are trading at there could be a sizeable amount in that one gameweek, meaning you must MUST manage staking well here. Please be careful with these strats. Iv left them well alone now. This also applies to people backing anothe goal with same strike rates needed. Just be careful guys and take this int break to re appraise your approaches.
This is good advice. Take my Trobs for example. The need (incorporating commission a 36% strike rate to profit. They average nicely above that. But as you are risking 1 to win 2(3 if you include stakes) points the odds are already stacked in your favour. A 10 point drop is made back in 5 trades. Does it take a while? Yes. Are they boring? Yes. Will they make you a fortune short term? Absolutely not. But as part of my wider portfolio I am more than happy to include them. Dobbing them as well, whilst providing less profit is steadier and still a reasonable return. 53% strike rate to return a profit. Look at those figures. 36%, 53%. Not a huge amount of selections. A good example of what Darri is saying people should be aiming for. Unless you enjoy scalping or inrunning trading all you need is a few strategies like this and long term you will be golden. Risk vs Reward. I do still enjoy an afternoon rinsing people through live trading though
. #listentodarri -
@liam-willis id say staking is the first thing to amend before when to compound. Right now these 2 things are big issues for some people and will bite them. There is no point compounding if your still staking too high. Both need to be adjusted for these high strike rate strats in my opinion based purely on risk. Stake less and compound less often. The need for high strike rates is a human thing, we like constant winners, but its not as easy as that. These strategies need to be handled differently to others and hopefully these kind of posts help people realise this before it hurts them.
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@darri totally agree about the volume 36 is crazy mentally and physically, the question should be when to compound, my filter is tight so doesn't spit out many games and i must admit its tempting to up stakes quickly. the thing is every strategy will hit some sort of bad run so as you say management is key.
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@darri just read this after your comments on my blog makes total sense now when you mentioned about the number of trades luckily just paper trading atm
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@liam-willis the issue with a lot of these high strike rate strats is how big the gap is between odds and strike rate. So for example, coin flip approach, lets say we have 50/50 chance of heads/tails. Your getting offered 2.10 to back another head. You know over a large sample than you will come out good. However, thats with a large sample, the issue is how people are trying to manage their bank around this. If you compound your stakes after x amount earned or per day/per week your susceptible to the bad run. Now thats just with a even money type scenario, the issue with these strategies is the risk reward is so wide compared to that. Yes you can have an 85% strike rate, but if your laying a 5.5 average say for a weekend, i saw someone was doing 36 trades over whole weekend so both sat and sunday. Thats a bank risk of 162pts, your risking more than your bank at start of weekend! Even half of that lets say you trade 9 games each day, with an average of 5.5. Thats still risking 40pts per day and an overall of 80pts for the weekend! ALL it takes is one bad weekend here and there goes all your progress. There is far too much risk going on here and people chasing banks and inevitably they are going nowhere long term, they might have good short term runs but they will never get anywhere long term the bank will keep pulling them back because of the way people are managing these. People are over reliant on past data, but that past data records can be broken.. The same patterns wont always emerge in terms of when those losses occur.
Hope iv explained that well enough. Yes high strike rates can work but almost everyone on here thats doing these high risk strats and staking aggressively with that much volume is one bad run away from pure disaster. People arent managing these strategies the way they should be which is for the long term instead they are compounding so swiftly. Iv been trying to say this to people but its hard to tell them when they are on a winning run thinking they are untouchable, we all feel like that after a good run. But trading will never be that easy unfortunately and its all about slow and steady progress.
Just think for a second about the bank outlay above and really understand the risk element here. Take liam for example, he has an 85% strike rate and will profit long term with those odds, but if he is staking aggressively to win 1pt from odds of 5.5 and above, whats to say his 15% losses wont occur in that run? Out of 100 trades he will on average lose 15, well given the volume people are trading at there could be a sizeable amount in that one gameweek, meaning you must MUST manage staking well here. Please be careful with these strats. Iv left them well alone now. This also applies to people backing anothe goal with same strike rates needed. Just be careful guys and take this int break to re appraise your approaches.
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@darri i get what you are saying here cos it happened to me once had a cracking month and then upped stakes and had a brutal weekend and lost 15 points. ive got data on a filter for around 10 months and it runs at 85% which makes a lay around the 50 min mark break even at 6.5, so most of the time you get 4.5 -5.5. this had 3 months with losses which could be off putting but over the 10 months is averaging 10% a month, so question is is this sort of trading worth doing even tho it could be classed as a high strike rate strat and if so how would you go about trading this. im asking as i have just had some success with automating last month and maybe going to add this to it.
