The road to full time
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@daniel-cooper betfair mate, go to the sportsbook, football, euro 2020, outrights, scroll all the way down to odds (player stats) and then top one is shots on target and the other are all goals ones
Try this @DJ-Reid
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@anthony-ariss havent spain just redone most of their squad? The thing is with all of this all these teams could win it, momentum at the tournament is what wins it. Some team peak in the group stage and then fail in the knockouts. Its all about keeping it consistent. For me the top half of the draw will be a hard pathway, hard to gain momentum, the bottom half could easily be swept up by one of the big nations which builds momentum. England, one of the group F giants could easily get on a roll with that pathway. Thats why iv gone for 4 teams, stacking so that i have a team in the bottom half and a stack in the top.
Yeah i think england have a superb chance this year, however alot depends on maguire being fit, that defence will get torn to shreds by a france or portugal. It will be a combination of a good attack and good defence that will win this comp. As a Scotsman i dont want england to win cause thats all we will here about, but they have all the tools to do it despite english fans scepticism, i just feel with odds below evens that its an extremely good lay because in the last 16 when they come up against any of the big boys that price just becomes value. Most of this comp when these big teams play each other should be evens or above, they wont because the markets will like england they always do in every team sport. Its a smart lay and can be hedged inplay, its not that im able to see in future and go yeah england will be naff, its that its the price, same with the above winners picks, its not about them being the ones i think will win based on team its the pathways and prices.
@ANTHONY-ARISS glad we are thinking same lines
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@darri great post - similar to mine except I'd got Spain in at 0.5 pts also - reducing profit and chance of zero loss but just couldn't leave them out. Also had gone for England not to make last 8 too!
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@daniel-cooper that is a good thing bud
stay away from bets but if you fancy these fun ones that can be interesting while having a beer with mates get on themCheers Darri! I think I’ll actually be in a pub for the first England game so should be interesting!
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@daniel-cooper that is a good thing bud
stay away from bets but if you fancy these fun ones that can be interesting while having a beer with mates get on them -
@darri never even used the sportsbook
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@darri thanks Darri!
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@daniel-cooper betfair mate, go to the sportsbook, football, euro 2020, outrights, scroll all the way down to odds (player stats) and then top one is shots on target and the other are all goals ones
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@darri cheers Darri!
I do like the look of some of your fun ones!
you never know! Which platform did you place these on? -
EURO 2020 (2021
)I had contemplated being rather defensive with this comp, but because ill be switching in and out with football and cricket this summer i feel i can have a bit more of an aggressive push here.
Below are may main outrights:
Euro Winners:
France @6 for 0.7pts, Belgium @8 for 0.6pts, Portugal @10 for 0.5 pts and Germany @10 for 0.2 pts
For me this whole comp hangs on what happens in group F. The pathways from it put each nation into certain ends of the draw for rest of comp. This makes this all about 2 halves, you can use one of the tournament predictors to show you what i mean. Winners of group F get put into the top half and runners up bottom half. So for me no brainer back france and portugal as i believe these teams will finish 1-2 in the group and really should at least make a best placed 3 with a game against hungary. The points for them are just in relation to their odds. The Germany trade youll notice make us 0 money but also zero loss, for me they are my back up. This should just hopefully mean we have at least 2 teams in one half of the draw going forward. Then finally we have belgium, again mainly a draw bias pick, fancy them to win their group, past the groups most nations will be good regardless, the bottom half however seems easier. Stacking these up means we could have a few teams in the top half and likely to get at least 1/2 into the semis and hoping the bottom half team gets to the final too.
Total stake = 2 pts
Belgium to win group B @1.78 for 2pts
I know none of this will be easy games but belgium should have enough fire power to beat these teams. If you look around the groups most have a similar layout, yet belgium are the only one of the big teams with higher odds in relation to them being the best team in their group. Could be my most bullish trade but staked defensively.
Total Stake = 2pts (Fav trade of the comp)
Queue the haters: Lay england to reach the quarter finals @1.84 2pts liability
Eagle eyed traders will spot the winners of england group plays the runners up in group F, which is france, germany and portugals group. Yes england will if they win have home advantage but for me too much rests on that defence against the likes of portugal and france. For me thats a nice priced lay and can be managed in the last 16 game with a hedged position if needed dependant on who the team is/if england win their group, can see how well all teams play.
So those are my main trades for the euros, below are my fun ones:
Overall thats a total of 8pts, do i think ill make over 8pts in inplay over the course of the comp yes! If you dont think you will perhaps pick and choose what ones you like, as you can see some clash with each other ie england only reaching last 16 yet i have kane in the fun ones, all about spreading risk and not being bullish on any one thing, yet having the chance that all could sync up if it goes well. For me i have cricket and football all summer so this will just be a portion of my profits over the next few months. If any of the fun ones win ill use it to cover any losses to bank and any profits will not go to bank that will be my own as i plan to buy camera gear going into august and sept
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@daniel-cooper Sorry i did post on the football thread, im honestly in love with that belgium to win their group price, i think as this week goes on its just gonna get shorter. Ill most likely put around 2 points on it. Was gonna look at it all tonight.
The rest tbh i will be using free bets and promotions from bookmakers and treating them as bonuses for me getting new camera gear and paying for my adobe subscription.
Ill post on here later tonight showing what are betfair bank trades and what are fun stuff.
Ahhh I must have missed that! Not to worry though, look forward to your big post tonight
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@daniel-cooper Sorry i did post on the football thread, im honestly in love with that belgium to win their group price, i think as this week goes on its just gonna get shorter. Ill most likely put around 2 points on it. Was gonna look at it all tonight.
The rest tbh i will be using free bets and promotions from bookmakers and treating them as bonuses for me getting new camera gear and paying for my adobe subscription.
Ill post on here later tonight showing what are betfair bank trades and what are fun stuff.
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@Darri you planning any Outrights for the Euro’s?
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@nathan-bennett for me right now i still feel like i have a lot to learn with the other formats outside of t20 trading wise. With t20s its quite difficult to post inplay, prices change quicker than you can post, but yes i would like to post these inplay more often and the other formats too, just saw that the thread was kind of against my trade here and as im still early stages of test cricket didnt want egg on my face being bullish against the others. But ill try to be a bit more open on there going forward especially if this profit keeps going
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@darri cricket thread needs a boost your intel would be massive
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Cricket is back!
England vs NZ test match: +4.26 points/% of bank
By now most will know i only look to enter test matches from day 3 onwards. Gives me time to assess the situation and match conditions. Rarely will i enter before unless its blatantly obvious the markets are imbalanced (sri lanka draws)
This game presented me with an interesting tactful trade. The game had been rather slow up until this point. 2 days had gone and only 2 wickets into the 2nd innings. I did at this stage feel a result would easily still come about, the weather had just been perfect and so too the pitch for batting long. However the rain came, largely against pre test forecasts. But clearly it wasnt clearing up anytime soon. Around about lunchtime on day 3 i saw the draw price was 1.87, moving in gradually every so often. It had been heavily resistant for ages, im assuming thats because first game of summer and everyone wanting to see a result, once it dawned on a few and the casual non trading punters started to exit that price would crash. I placed my main trade here, in fact i placed a normal stake on this normally i take a position with half the stake and look for other good entries with the other. With this being a weather trade i backed the draw with the full amount. End of the day it came all the way into 1.35. With that leaving only 2 days in which to see 3 innings worth of cricket i left it in. Yes NZ gave an aggressive declaration but england handled the early swing well and santner is more of a defensive bowler so spin on day 5 wasnt gonna be so decisive. I dont think id have been so bullish if that was say the deciding test match when a team would heavily press for a result.
Good start to the summer and great to have cricket back this is gonna be such a fun 2nd half of the year! Unreal schedule of cricket and football.
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I love how i made that post and we all had a discussion about data and datasets, then boom sky sports get the england cricket data analyst on to explain its use in cricket! Funny things like that happen all the time its spooky.
Anyway, fed up of the quiet period yet? Thankfully im trading the cricket and its ticking me over, but the football remains short and sharp trades. According to the stats software only one game qualifies all weekend. Lets see if it qualifies inplay too. I should have time before cricket to post it if all things are ticked.
On the cricket front personally, have been getting small niggles quite consistently now and its getting on my nerves. Its great being tall and slim but its not exactly massively healthy slim. This whole year im trying to use gym work and home stretching to get some form of a solid core. Its gonna take a year hopefully to be in a nice base. Injured my quad last week. Our club has 3 teams at different pyramid levels and this week iv decided to play for our 3rd team to build up fitness. Didnt want to risk the leg again in matches were its a bit more competitive. So gonna look to bowl around 80% of my full effort and see if i can manage a full spell of bowling with as little niggles as possible. Itll build up my confidence which as we all know from trading is key. Slow and steady. Thanks to @Matt-Wood for the behind the scenes help with a few plans to help counter the niggles.
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@alastair-todd one thing i did which helped was to look at a members filter on the software and looked at how they built theirs and then either build one similar or adapt their one. once you get used to this you naturally start building your own. also once you have lots of data you start to notice what could be changed on the filter, hope that makes sense.
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@darri Thanks, all very helpful and I will keep doing what I'm doing to build the data. I'm in no rush, Rome wasn't built in a day!
