The road to full time
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@gary-brown when i post the trade on the forum its the backing of overs/lcs part then if the game is still lively 5/10 mins later i then enter a LTD trade. If you look at my updated spreadsheets you will see the odds i was entering for the LTD part which gained £9 profit. Like i say 2 different strategies, one is more value betting (LCS/OV 0.5) and value trading (LTD late on) I didnt enter the LTD part in the valencia game because there was a red card 5 mins after i entered the LCS/Backed 0.5
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@gary-brown thanks bud, the smaller profits were Backing ov 0.5 goals, and the higher profit the £9ish returns were LTD trades. For me even tho they are same game they are 2 very different strategies. I dont shy away when i have confidence in a game. once iv got a decent sample of games to prove to people about this method, ill then go into a bit more detail about each strategy. Not wanting to just give a heap of info to everyone for it to be overwhelming. Slow and steady and giving context behind it
so I guess you let the lay the draw run to the end rather than trade out? Is that how you achieved the £9 profit?
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@gary-brown thanks bud, the smaller profits were Backing ov 0.5 goals, and the higher profit the £9ish returns were LTD trades. For me even tho they are same game they are 2 very different strategies. I dont shy away when i have confidence in a game. once iv got a decent sample of games to prove to people about this method, ill then go into a bit more detail about each strategy. Not wanting to just give a heap of info to everyone for it to be overwhelming. Slow and steady and giving context behind it
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This is fantastic Dari and will help so many people.
I am hoping to find a bit more about laying rather than backing overs in the second half.
You seem to make more profit on the lays (around £9) than the backing overs £9 around £4.50) from the data below. Was this a LCS trade you used or LTD trade?
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What a way to come back to trading! Really good start to the weekend, 5/5 winning trades and from just 3 games. LESS IS MORE. Dont need to go hunting for trades or trading every game just sit and wait for good price entries. There are thousands of games a year no need to be on them all. I know FOMO plays a big part in the beginning of anyone who comes into trading, but hopefully you can start to see that doesnt work and im not mad/stupid for waiting patiently for the good games to come around. I waited 2 days without a single trade then i found 3 games i liked and won over 8% bank growth. Look around the industry there isnt many strategies like that or approaches to trading like that. All tend to rely on high amount of games/trades just to make same amount.Valencia vs levante:
Really good example here of just being patient and watching to see if the action merits the current odds price. I pre match found it to have a 80% of a second half goal. Now obviously with time decay taken into account the later in the game the more risk but from bare historic data that was the chance there would be one. I was going to enter around 65 mins but then a flurry of subs happened and i always advise holding off just to see if it changes any flow to the game. Valencia made some attacking changes. So why did i enter, levante werent just sitting back in fact they seemed most likely when i entered to score. A red card spoiled that and therefore i then didnt enter the LTD. The LCS/back next goal was matched @1.59 a healthy jump from the actual probability of a goal. Winning trade late on.Lok zagreb vs dinamo:
Not much different here either except the favourite was the away side. It was a very open game both having huge chances. I entered after a sustained period of chances had been created and the gap between defence and midfield for both had opened up. I entered for both the LCS and the LTD parts based on both sides pressing. When its the underdog on top im often hesitant to LTD also. Winning trade.dresden vs hamburg:
Less stressful than the other 2. Pre match stats hugely favoured a goal, neither side had been involved in any 0-0 home and away respectively. But my strategy is to look at individual team performances and their individual stats and still looked promising for a goal. Both LCS/LTD parts got matched and was an easy 84 min goal.As i go on and get more practice writing these up ill experiment with how to lay it out to best give the info. If people could comment or ask questions id be happy to adapt. Super start to the weekend.
Bank management post will come on monday after weekend round of games, will explain how im staking and what the plan for phase 1 of this thread.
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Yet to find a trade that excites me so far, sevilla game came close to pulling the trigger but wasnt excited by the price on offer based on how the match was developing. I think people see my approach and cant understand why im not being active. Yet on other threads there is a hype of always getting on things. Lets just read into that for a second. If you actually have a look the profit margins or profit per trade a lot of the high strike rate strategies on show have a break even point far higher than most would be comfortable with. I have never seen the path of if i lose 1 trade im gonna need 5-6 winning ones just to get back even. Imagine a quick fire loss of 2 in a row, that 10-12 needed just to break even. That for me is too much graft. Further to that its these small returns with huge liabilities that force traders to trade a huge amount of games.
On the trader front tho i would encourage consistency and even if its small profits consistently like the ones you see online or from the industry leaders then all profit is good profit. So its a tricky one to advise on. Iv had a few people ask me about these type of strategies and while i cant argue if someone presents cold hard facts it limits your effectiveness to trade other markets and requires alot of screen time.
So to answer the question of why i havent traded any games yet its because im looking for games that compliment my style. There is no one size fits all. Some like the feeling of constant wins even if the liability would crush multiple trades worth of profit, but yet these can still be profitable and a valid strategy using compounding. For me i like waiting for the games i can see value in and then hit the trigger. A few days of no trades doesnt bother me because i know when a few come about i wont be reluctant to climb in. Further to that my profit gain and profit per trade is far higher so would only take me 2-3 a week to match the same bank growth as those strategies you see. That doesnt mean i wont lose trades or have bad weeks/runs but the way i trade doesnt require a huge amount of games per day/week/month i dont spend hours at the screen, and im able to be involved in other things and be as efficient with my time when a list of games are on. Imagine having to trade 30-40 trades a week from one strat and also have other strategies working alongside.
LESS IS MORE, just wait for the good prices there are thousands of games a year you dont need to be on all of them.
Over the coming weeks and months i hope to show that. Im anticipating a few this weekend. Will be good to shake the rustiness off and put my money where my mouth is!
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@gary-brown yep top leagues in:
australia, belguim, china, croatia, czech, denmark, england/championship too, france, germany, italy, japan, holland, norway, poland, portugal, scotland, serbia, slovakia, slovenia, south korea, spain, sweden, switz, turkey, usa
These should all provide 2 things one being liquidity and 2 a live stream
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thanks Darri I am going to build the same filter alongside yours mate as I guess that will help me learn how you create your filters.
With regards leagues is it the top division for all countries you use?
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@gary-brown same, the reason i did it was to highlight the fact that the scope is for 5 games. The reason for overall games played is to make sure we have had 5 games at home and 5 games away receptively. This gives pure current form, as we go on we can fiddle with it and compare a wider scope as we go on. The whole idea right now is to be ultra basic and build an understanding of the strategy and what typically happens at a broad scale. Then we will narrow in on the good points.
Essentially if you want the scope to be higher say 10 then yes keep it at 70% but i was purely highlighting the fact our scope currently is 5.
So very early doors you could easily see this exact same method can be used for a second half goal strategy too, we just replace the H1 metric with H2, this is the main reason im doing this is so people can relate it to any strategy they wish to build for themselves
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Hi Darri just a quick question about the filter mate.
Matches played 10
You got HT Over 0.5 is greater than 7Is this the same or another way of doing HT over 0.5 is greater than 70%?
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So to start with what has to happen for a FHG to come about? We are simply starting with one key stat and building into it from there.
This is the filter:
very very basic, but will allow for a lot of games to come up and remember we are only gathering data on our hypothesis. This is by no means a tradeable strategy just now. please note we dont trade small leagues or leagues we know nothing about, still find it hard to see people trading 3rd div games, asking or trouble both in liquidity as your bank grows and on its reliability.
The plan is:
we collect 100 games worth of data, with 3 bits of info that we want to know. That is when are goals being scored, is there a goal and using our first basic stat is there a certain number that works better. This can all be shown in the spreadsheet at the bottom of this post. Iv added a new sheet just for this so we can all see the progress.
Ill continue to update it until we hit 100 games then come back for the next step in building the strategy. Remember this can be related to every single strategy and the methods used are for every strategy too. Its the exact process i went through because i got fed up of following others traders hoping they would make me money long term instead of finding my own style of trading.
I hope this helps in some way. Remember just tracking not trading at this stage. The first 3 games to track are on the sheet as an example.
P.S on my main trading i never saw any value for LCS, LTD or comebacks last night, too many early goals an zero value was on offer, might not be able to find good trades until the weekend.
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Ok so an idea sprung to mind. Since im at the start of this new bank and im trying to replicate what id do if i started again, its only right that i show how i build a strategy. To do that im gonna build a FHG strategy purely for the members to track data from. A lot of people join BTC an are overwhelmed by the stats software. I was and made crazy ideas, but i didnt find a successful one until i implicated what im gonna show in the coming weeks. This isnt gonna be a strategy i personally use but it will showcase how i go from idea to fully working consistent strategy. Its gives a nice real world example, instead of me explaining it you can then see an actual example of what im meaning.
The methods i use can be directly related to every single strategy. The funny thing is once you start seeing what i do youll be laughing at how simple the whole thing is. people shy away from tracking trades because its time consuming but hopefully i can demystify that notion. Ever asked yourself why martin never makes a strategy official until its actually been thoroughly tested? Because the pros work on a strategy over a decent data set.
I can use fancy words but its far simpler than that. So ill put up a fresh clean post for people to see. This will run alongside the thread. More as a resource for people to look at in relating it to their own trading and how to actually build a successful strategy. I think its a good side project for the thread and its easy to track so works for both of us.
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@chris-osborne good to have new people join, fire away any questions if you want mate either on here or message, hope this stuffs not a bore to read!
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Hi Darri I’m new to BTC and competitively new to trading, look forward to seeing reading more
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@darri said in The road to full time:
nstead of only showing selections which ill do also ill try give a bit of reasoning so others can understand why i traded a certain game. Ill only be posting LCS on football thread and only explaining the LTD/Comebacks because they are much smaller in quantity and therefore not a total snooze fest to read about. This should highlight to people further that im only able to do this because i trade far less than the average trader because im all about the quality of each trade rather than a scattergun of quantity strats.
sounds perfect Darri. Just what i need and many of the new traders we have here now.
Its busy in the forum which is great to see and some old favs like Alan, Jonathan, James, Rich all making good contributions.
Looks like good times are here again for the end of lockdown across Europe.
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@gary-brown similar but im gonna try explain as i go because i think from what people say when they try replicate a good trader they fail even if that trader they copied wins long term. Instead of only showing selections which ill do also ill try give a bit of reasoning so others can understand why i traded a certain game. Ill only be posting LCS on football thread and only explaining the LTD/Comebacks because they are much smaller in quantity and therefore not a total snooze fest to read about. This should highlight to people further that im only able to do this because i trade far less than the average trader because im all about the quality of each trade rather than a scattergun of quantity strats. TBF i was doing that before showing all my trades but i was all over the shop at posting topics
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Will you be doing something to what Keith is doing in his 3% club Darri by tracking the bank on a daily basis (well every time you make a trade) and posting stakes etc.
This would be most helpful if thats the plan.
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I think the biggest struggle for people that iv found both personally and from others is how trading is explained/taught. I think BTC are one of the only ones who seems to not push strategies and instead focus on the methods behind why a trader does what he does and i believe thats the best course of action. Its easy for a pro to just post selections/strategies or green screens. I got really annoyed listening to that psycoff video, he literally said he only ever shows profitable trades. To anyone thats a pro who tries to help others how unjust is that attitude.
So what i want to do for this thread going forward is to give some context behind every bit of advice i give along the way. I think its easy for people to give someone 10hrs of video content and when they then go to trade those live they arent putting it all in practise because they are overwhelmed with info.
What im going to do is start from scratch an actual demonstration of what id do if i started with a beginner bank. So im gonna start with a 100 pound bank. As the journey goes on introduce certain topic ideas which have context behind them. So instead of me blabbing on about premium charge or strike rates when we have a tiny bank there will actually be a bit of context via the stage we are at in the bank.
Its a different way to to show trading, i think someone who shows full transparency will provide the most value to people reading this. Youll see exactly why i trade the way i do.
My plan is to post every LCS over on the football thread, whilst on here show all the LTD/Comebacks i enter and give an explanation behind them. Not so everyone copies me but instead sees the reasoning for a certain trade. I think alot of the industry force feed strategies without giving context. They just show profits, they dont show the pre-during-post effort that goes into trading. All of which make for a consistent trader. Im not a guru and not a fantastic trader i still make mistakes hence why i dont want to ram my way of trading to people. Instead id like to guide people into the mindset side an the thought process as to why i trade certain games, strats and how i execute them.
There will be set phases along the way starting with the bank building phase which as we go on ill discuss what helped me and the success and failures i had along the way.
In phase 1, my bank will be 100, but as ill discuss in a new post later in the week the bank will be leveraged in a way that replicates a 400 pound bank. Dont panic ill explain this in better terms in another post trying to not ramble onto different topics like i usually do.
I hope this idea catches on and is something people would like to read. I enjoy this side of trading, and hope it gives both a good read and some bits of advice people can use to improve on their own and become better than me. PLEASE comment about certain topics youd like answered along the way i dont want this just to be me posting and no one getting to ask questions. Im here for help and also guidance as even tho i do this for a job the industry never stops and you never stop learning.
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Thanks guys, good to be back!
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good to have you back mate