The road to full time

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LTDs for today:

Voluntari (romania)
Liberec (czech)
Coventry (championship)
Blackburn (championship)
Cska (russia)
Gijon (la liga 2)

First busy day on these for ages, lets hope we can come out well and finish the month strongly Ill not be trading too much today, nothing planned socially so might trade the games on merit. Will post if i enter as usual.

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@paul-bacon no problem mate, a common trend for new people on here who end up failing is they dont give this enough time. They want quick results. I blew a few banks, scrapped a few strats and drove myself mad at how to get this all to work. The difference for me was i gave it time. I went away and tested strats. Not just a months worth of results but a vast amount of them before i started to see progress. The people who look at this from a puzzle solving mindset are more likely to come good from this. The people that are successful on here are typically those who have been here for at least 2-3 years. Yes some still struggle past that time but generally there shouldnt be a reason for someone that long into this not to be making good gains. Give yourself at least 6 months of up and down results. But dont care about how much or little you have made, but in those 6 months make sure you are always learning something new. Once you then hit that point and find a solid strategy youll go flying with the bank. Small gains add up and compounding is your best friend. Im sure we will chat some more and ill be able to share some of my main pillars to trading but enjoy your initial joining of the forum. Just think long term not short, you wouldnt expect to be great at something in less than a year so dont treat trading like its anything different. That is what will keep you on here for a long time and see a proper journey, not just a couple months of subscription. Im looking forward to your progress mate, keep me informed.

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@darri loved reading this… won a few quid on the same game. Again thanks for the advice today, I know I am going to learn loads whilst sharing my own journey.. again Darri FairPlay !!!

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LTDs for tomorrow morning:

Tokushima (japan)

Ill update the rest tomorrow when markets are more lively

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Summary post:

Ltds: 2/3, close to a full house, but then i did spell slovakia wrongly in the post so deserved a loss

Inplays: 1/1 nice trade on the arsenal game

Goalscorers: 1/2, these just keep ticking the bank along nicely

Good day, nice to see my post suggesting arsenal was value came true, might be time to start getting on this system iv got going for them

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Anytime Goalscorers: Arsenal vs Villa

Aubameyang
Lacazette

I also think arsenal are good value here or at least that villa are a good lay. Im not doing it as want to keep to pure data for weekends but they are part of an xG model that hasnt lost yet. Its early i tracking and i feel uneasy ever thinking of backing arsenal to win so instead ill stick with goalscorer markets.

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While im posting trades and tips iv picked up from others and from experience, its always nice when you get messages from others commenting on how they are enjoying the blog or see it as a refreshing part of the industry how open i am. A while back someone asked what do I get out of this blog and why do i keep doing it. Essentially its done its purpose. I turned from an average trader into a successful one. Success is measured in many forms but what im meaning by my own metric is this became a sustainable living and could trade from scratch if i needed to. The reason i keep going isnt to be famous or be a "tipster" its the buzz you get knowing you are helping people. That can either be from following my trades or from them learning from my wins/losses. The posts i do which detail things i think people should consider is all from either past wins/losses or advice i was given. Its just me collating all that info and sharing what iv found. I get more enjoyment from these messages and posts from people like for example john the other day who i have a great respect for in trading. These are all the reasons i keep going. Yes im still a paying member, im the same status as most are, but my enjoyment is adding value to this site and as we continue to grow "followers" of this blog i feel we keep adding to that and building a community within a community. Im glad we have people recommending my blog or myself to new traders, that in itself is amazing to hear. Im hoping that is a result of my transparency and from value people can get from here. Short soppy post but just a thanks for those following/commenting/messaging, it all keeps me going

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2 more LTDs for today:

Velje (denmark)
Sered (slovackia)

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@darri said in The road to full time:

Not planning on being up early tomorrow so here are the morning LTDs:

Urawa

Ill post the later ones after this game

Thats a winner

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Not planning on being up early tomorrow so here are the morning LTDs:

Urawa

Ill post the later ones after this game

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@darri said in The road to full time:

Rangers vs Brondby: Goalscorers

Morelos
Roofe

Not to be in the midtjylland game, but cant win them all, hopefully a bounce back to accumulate profit

Roofe with the goal, bagging us the profit here, sadly inplays let me down again today. Need to tighten that up rest of month. Especially as the LTD has been terrific, its due a variance swing so would like to rebuild a nice cushion.

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Rangers vs Brondby: Goalscorers

Morelos
Roofe

Not to be in the midtjylland game, but cant win them all, hopefully a bounce back to accumulate profit

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@darri said in The road to full time:

Im gonna be scalping the cricket, backing and laying for a few recycles. In the event they get rocked or risk the odds flying out ill be backing them heavily.

There is a certain amount of smugness you get when scalping well, feels like you are cheating, but nice healthy amount made. Scotland progress

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Im gonna be scalping the cricket, backing and laying for a few recycles. In the event they get rocked or risk the odds flying out ill be backing them heavily.

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Europa goalscorers:

Midtjylland:
Sisto
Isaksen
Sviatchenko

This is the most ambitious of all the ones posted so far, but with brumado out these 2 need to step up. Sviatchenko is an outside pick and very much a punt, so if you want the traded angle stick to the top 2. Im on all 3, like always we only need 1. Im under no illusion that eventually we will hit losers but so far we havent and hopefully it carries on tonight.

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@darri said in The road to full time:

HR for today

Carlisle 13:55 - Mister Whitaker 2places
Ludlow 14:05 - Golden Taipan 2 places

Couple games to monitor for europa league tonight so will post if i enter

Both winners

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HR for today

Carlisle 13:55 - Mister Whitaker 2places
Ludlow 14:05 - Golden Taipan 2 places

Couple games to monitor for europa league tonight so will post if i enter

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Quiet day so looking over data. For those interested on the LTDs, we are now hitting the winter leagues. Its going to be a very interesting time for them. We go into them with a 90% strike rate with avg odds of 3.5 this is a strike rate with me not having fully optimised leagues wise yet. I dont think it will maintain such a high S/R but its clearly the reason my bank has been rising nicely.

We have had 6/10 goalscorer trades win and netting us around 7% bank increase or for those using points 7pts. These are very useful right now, how they adapt long term to natural bank rises im unsure of but while i can ill make most of them.

In the background i have been testing a batch of strats. They are still a good while away but without tweaks are performing really well. These include ov1.5s (87% s/r without tweaks), champs league (92% s/r for shg), a new xG based strat that hasnt lost yet, avg odds on them to back was 2.7 its probably the one i like most but too short a sample size.

I know this looks like a lot of potential trades but actually they will just replace things instead of add. Most of my trading is now set and forget. Essentially trading around the LTDs. If i can muster any profit around them then its a plus. Ideally tho if im spending time trading i want it to be worthwhile. So expect me to refine a bit as definitely been some overtrading on some markets.

Hope people have been getting on them tho both ltds and others, been a good effort since we refreshed things again. Lets see what rest of month brings.

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Golf DOB:

Zozo champ: Ryan Palmer

Small stakes thinking of giving Golf and HR their own bank in future but rest of this year they both count to my current one. I like the approach to that. Means they are then traded based on their merit. Right now golf and hr will be consumed in the compounding of my main bank and wont show its true value. Rest of this year tho ill continue with them being part of the main bank as wanting to reach a certain bank milestone when things on this blog will reach an exciting stage. All roads lead to £10k. Still optimistic of reaching that by easter.

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There are no LTDs tomorrow, so no need to check in, on a roll with them now, hope they are steadily building those banks those that are following. So far im glad the other trades/strats are adding to the profit. Especially given this will be a busy period up until the next int break. Come good to that point and bank will be in a great place.