The road to full time
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@keith-anderson said in The road to full time:
@jarratt-perkins said in The road to full time:
That was a perfect post - had your thoughts and views throughout!
I have actually started with a daily aim.... now if I meet it or not is a different story.
Gonna follow suit and start my own blog to help with my trading as reading your has helped me and deff helped you!
I had a daily aim after a while to @Jarratt-Perkins
Nothing wrong with it IF it stops you over trading. It may not though.
That's the idea mate and actually got some of it from your "make 3% a day" thread ;). Just backed up when a pro I know says that is what he does. The art is leaning if you want to get your point in 1 trade or 10!
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@jarratt-perkins Whats your daily aim? And why are you setting it for daily p/l?
1 point profit - If you don't set an aim then how can you achieve it. Stops me over traded and also means i am not hooked on looking at every game wasting my free time!
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Loads of early goals today taking away a lot of potentials from me tonight, IGNORE the big win on spurs ov4.5 its a XMAS £25 challenge bet run.Sunderland vs Burton
Funny game this on overview of pre match stats it was shy of key indicators of another goal 2nd half. Avg goals per game 2.9, 2nd half goals 8/10 games, so on looking it was a shortlisted game. In play stats were spot on for average stats per goal and so decided to watch further into the game. Stats improved around the 58 min mark and i entered with a LTD at 2.1. Goal came in pretty sharp and as i was pre occupied with spurs i decided to just cashout the trade, could have gotten more out of it but lower leagues can have a habit of biting back.Spurs vs olympiakos
Loved this trade. Champs league games for me are less pre game stats and more match specific. At the time spurs went 0-2 i was very cautious not to enter, spurs had been woeful and didnt present alot of danger coming forward. They got lucky with getting it 1-2 before HT. I was going to enter regardless so would have been better if they had not scored. I got in with a price of 2.98, spurs equalised and normally i would have removed liability but i just couldnt see spurs not having a go. I watched it go 3-2 then 4-2 before i cashed out, stress free trade olympiakos tired as the game wore on.Enjoyed tonights trades, sorry i didnt post them in forum got a little pre occupied with the games tonight. +2.6 points on the night im very happy with that.
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@jarratt-perkins said in The road to full time:
That was a perfect post - had your thoughts and views throughout!
I have actually started with a daily aim.... now if I meet it or not is a different story.
Gonna follow suit and start my own blog to help with my trading as reading your has helped me and deff helped you!
I had a daily aim after a while to @Jarratt-Perkins
Nothing wrong with it IF it stops you over trading. It may not though.
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@jarratt-perkins Whats your daily aim? And why are you setting it for daily p/l?
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That was a perfect post - had your thoughts and views throughout!
I have actually started with a daily aim.... now if I meet it or not is a different story.
Gonna follow suit and start my own blog to help with my trading as reading your has helped me and deff helped you!
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As said before been away for a while now, staking plan has changed due to rise in bank, still same principle tho based around points system and %of bank.Cracovia vs Zaglebie:
The pre match stats for this game were strong. home side have scored in 8/8 home games, away side have conceded in 7/7 away games, h2h record shows 10/10 games have had over 0.5 goals, Last 5 games avg goal per game 3.1 with a 80% trend of at least 1 goal in the 2nd half. Inplay half time stats showed promising flow to the game, 3 SOT, 6 OFF, and a dangerous attack stat conversion well above 80%. Right there is a solid foundation of both pre game stats and inplay stats that make this a game to now watch going into the 2nd half. Before the 56 min mark the game was end to end but lack shots on target, that started to change and this is were live pictures can improve trading decisions. Cracovia were creating chance after chance and looked vulnerable on the counter, the entire midfield from both side was just one big gap, proper open football. At 64/65 price for ov 0.5 was sitting just shy of 1.6 and deemed it a good price for the action and pre match research. Goal came in at 75 mins.Let me know if this is a better format for my posts going forward. Its obviously easier to be this detailed midweek as its less trades but shows a better understanding to why i entered. Quick side note here iv seen a few people mention days profits and if people are up for the day. beginner traders think this way. Each day for them is a big thing, its not. Trading cant just be full of profits everytime. If your in his mindset of daily p/l your going to be chasing losses and never get anywhere, 2 steps forward 3 back example. @Gary-Brown asked about recording trades, take this apporach. This way our not thinking about each days profit more about how each strategy is doing over say 100 trades. @Martin-Futter also mentioned winning 5/7 days, i really hope beginners can start to take small bits of gold from these points. Long term views are all that matter, monthly p/l is the way forward iv even started quarterly targets. Its less pressure if you have a rough couple of trades, because you know long term youll regain form. I really try not to ramble but some comments struck me today and wanted to see if i could try be constructive with an answer.
1 trade is all i did today, super short and simple, still irks me when i see people trading so much and so many selections i just cant see how that is healthy, but everyone is trading differently and hopefully long term profitably.
edit: im having a nightmare past week with sleep keep waking at this time every night body clock aint sorting itself out yet. also ill do a running p/l counter from december onwards
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@gary-brown said in The road to full time:
I am still learning.
The trades I like doing are:
Back the fav if going a goal down or its a draw.
Back overs in 2nd half or LTD
If watching a game and its dead sometimes i do unders for a few mins
Sometimes over 1.5 goals and trade out if no goals by around 30mins
Sometimes FHG if clear fav and goals are expected in first halfI am trying to stick to 2-3% of my bank and use split stakes in some of the games. So 1.5% to start with and another 1.5% of the bank later.
when i first came into trading i did this approach, trying to dabble in all types of markets. Iv only started to make profit ever since i focused on one strategy. For me that was 2nd half goals. Master 1 strategy, learn everything about it, track it for a few months, get it consistent and in profit. Then once youv got that keep it going and then add another strategy using the same process. Trading isnt easy, and it can sometimes be a grind but the rewards are there if you put the effort in and by looks of it your taking those right steps.
Scaling up, is when you increase your stakes so how much you bet per trade. It is generally when your bank reaches a certain point that you then change your amount bet. So a £100 bank, you stake 2% = £2, when that bank reaches £200 your stake is then still 2% but now £4. I typically have a set bank for each strategy and build them up each.
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what do you mean by scaling up Darri?
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I am still learning.
The trades I like doing are:
Back the fav if going a goal down or its a draw.
Back overs in 2nd half or LTD
If watching a game and its dead sometimes i do unders for a few mins
Sometimes over 1.5 goals and trade out if no goals by around 30mins
Sometimes FHG if clear fav and goals are expected in first halfI am trying to stick to 2-3% of my bank and use split stakes in some of the games. So 1.5% to start with and another 1.5% of the bank later.
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@gary-brown Chasing losses is criminal in this game mate, you might get away with it a few times but it will bite. @Martin-Futter did some cracking blogs and articles about it and how to stake accordingly. Do you have a strategy your following? something that you can specialise in and scale up? or you still trying to find what you like trading?
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@darri thanks Darri its the way I want to move forward. I can spend a week having profits and then I do something stupid and lose the lot.
by recording every trade I am less likely to do this as I will think twice about doing something silly to chase what looks like a losing trade as I am recording all trades as I do them.
I also set a daily stop loss so I cant trade more than 2 or 3 games at a time and I cant chase loses.
Hopefully by doing this it will help me big time to be profitable.
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@gary-brown Thank you mate, yeah i 100% record every trade, it is a pain sometimes but its worth it. It allows you to spot trends, strengths and weaknesses and monitor if it is long term profitable. Some people just judge based on profits but im a big advocate for recording trades on spreadsheets. I did a post about recording trades a while back.
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personally I love what you are doing Darri.
I was wondering do you record all your trades on a spreadsheet and make notes to help analyse what is working and what isn't working to help to keep away from making silly mistakes?
This is one thing I am going to try so was wondering if you did something similar to this?
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Been MIA for past week, with a lot of course deadlines before the xmas period trading couldnt be given enough attention. Luckily i had given myself a pretty decent buffer to allow for a lack of trading for the month. Iv managed to get myself into a position were iv now got time to trade and hopefully taking the international break off to get things done outside of trading bodes well for this hectic xmas run of football to come. Iv been keeping tabs and reading all the posts at night to keep up to date and see whats happening on the thread. Liking how there is more emphasis on the types of trades i like to do with late 2nd half goals starting to show through on the football thread. Ill probably be posting again this week my trades and hopefully can continue the way i left off.
As far as this thread goes does anyone have any thoughts on layout of the posts/updates? Iv been thinking its very general posts and maybe a boring read. Sometimes even when i write it they feel generic. Maybe be a bit sharper in detail of certain trades rather than a general trading period summary.
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Another fantastic weekend to round off the action before international break. Unlike the last update i wont go into detail for weekend games as there was too much action to focus on. Ill stick to midweek games when i can write down myself why i entered the trade and when i entered etc.The trades iv posted on the forum have hit a sizeable profit recently and im really appreciating the comments and messages from others. I do tend to post pretty much all my 2nd half LCS/LTD, now after trading laying the winning team for several months iv started to post them up too which are also doing well. Favourite trade of the weekend highlighted in the image, was a ludicrous price and took full advantage of it, belguim games very rarely hit those prices at the time i got in at.
Im very happy with the progress as you would expect, but today was a reminder that nothing changes i still have to continue doing it and keep grinding it out. Form will be variable at times and even after 1/4 earlier today i then could have said nah no more tonight going against the plan. Instead i continued and seen out the plan as i had laid out at the start. I ended up winning 2/2 and therefor cutting out the losses of the day and allowing the strike rate to continue. These are improvements to my mentality that i never had before, and im firmly of the belief its because im thinking long term instead of day by day p/l. Its been a very unreal November, i think iv ridden the wave of luck well and hopefully the downturn wont be too harsh.
Results
8/10 Nov = +15.4
Nov 19 = + 74.7 -
@darri this is great thank you not just from me but I am sure everybody here will have an interest from what you are doing Darri. Keep up the great work mate
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Pretty unreal form in past few weeks really kicking on since the slump i had a few weeks back. Following on from my last post ill try cover a couple of trades showing a bit more detail into why/how i traded it.
Starting with Valencia game on tuesday. Having equalised midway through the 2nd half valencia had started to pick up momentum and having looked at the BET365 stats it was a fairly 1 sided affair since the break. I managed to get a stream up for the game and sat watching just to see if there was a bit of urgency for another. The reason the game was shortlisted was because both teams needed to win to keep alive hopes of qualifying. So a point wouldnt favour either side. I could see both teams chasing down everything and pressing high, both factors for late goals. Lilles away form is dire highlighted in the image, @1.7 the odds seems massively out of sync so i entered the LTD. Valencia went on to win 4-1Dortmund game. 2-0 down at HT, i was watching this game from the start so hadnt seen inplay stats. But inter were lucky not to have conceded. Looking at the stats pre match, it showed dortmund to have scored in 4/5 games at home apart from barca game so forgiven. Inter conceded 5/5 away from home. I entered a lay @1.26, dortmund equalised, now i would have suggested take the green had it been an even game, dortmund were fired up, so instead i removed liability. Removing the liability insured it was a free bet, had inter looked like getting another i would have probably insured at least a 1 point guarentee profit, but i felt sure dortmund were more likely. They equalised and cashed out for a lovely green. They ended up winning 3-2 but i didnt want to over trade it.
Going forward with these posts ill probably look to write a detailed approach with 1 win and 1 loss to illustrate how i decide on trades and how i manage them when they either lose or win. Been an unreal start to november the bite back could be quite harsh tho. From the trades i post on the football thread raking up a tidy bit of form. Ill look to post an update on my other strategies probably at end of every month. I just like posting the LCS/LTD as everyone kind of understands the criteria for entry better than my other ones.
So long post will keep it shorter and more to the point going forward, was mainly because these games werent based on the filters more individual pre match research and in play price hunting.
Results
4-7 nov = + 35.8
Nov 19 = + 59.3 -
@darri thanks Darri I really like this thread and im interested to learn from you like many others here
