The road to full time
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@darri said in The road to full time:
LCS atalanta vs psg 1-0 75 mins
GOAL! PSG had been knocking at door all 2nd half bringing on mbappe, draxler, paredes and that old stoke striker, nice win to keep the run going
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@darri bingo
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LCS atalanta vs psg 1-0 75 mins
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@matt-wood the video link i posted earlier was this morning its now scorching hot here! Was such a crazy day up here
Yep it is for most, any new idea is easy to test and i think people actually jump the gun a bit. They get to the stage we are at and just jump straight to trading it. I want to show how i did it, slow and steady. Then build even more confidence with minimum stakes and then it should become a rinse and repeat thing. Its like the market research stage before launching a new product/service. The reason im doing this is to show that data should drive how you turn it to a strategy rather than and opinion of how its been doing. Will become clear as we move to it
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@darri said in The road to full time:
also sorry to spam today just stuck in the flat all day
FHGs are upto 30 now and some improvement from the already decent last batch. By no means a set in stone strategy yet but all early signs look good. Its been 2 months since we first created the filter and almost done 2 batches of testing. Im really excited for the next phase and get stuck into odds and start minimum staking it No need to apologise. You still swimming up there in Aberdeen? Stay safe!
Looking forward to the next phase of the FHG project as I think, for me at least, the actual application of the strategy is a bit of a weak link. I am well on board with creating and testing now but transferring that to an actual staking system to make profit is still a little less certain in my head.
I am sure it will all become blatantly obvious once I see it in action lol
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also sorry to spam today just stuck in the flat all day
FHGs are upto 30 now and some improvement from the already decent last batch. By no means a set in stone strategy yet but all early signs look good. Its been 2 months since we first created the filter and almost done 2 batches of testing. Im really excited for the next phase and get stuck into odds and start minimum staking it -
Thanks for the replies lads! I will try to do these style of posts in future then. I think it will be good both for wins and losses to show the process is the same either way, very easy for someone to talk about a winning trade, never see any people online who sell things show their losses in this way. Now that iv done one of them i can work on what worked and didnt to make it less rambly and better detail.
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@darri thank you for your insight. I will sure to be following how you do your trades.
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https://inplayguru.com been testing this for a while now, seems to be a handy tool. Can make it ping alerts after you set rules up for it. Currently free, can take a bit of time to select leagues you want but so far its been working fine for me. Iv got it to ping while im watching games to reassure me of my decisions. Wouldnt solely rely on it but could be a good addition to making the right decisions.
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@darri it was brilliant mate, very insightful and so.good for people like me trying to understand the mindset and thinking of a full timer
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@martin-walker I can understand why some people dont trade them, but for me this then represents an opportunity. Easy to say after a win, but iv been rather successful with the womens world cup, african nations, euro qualifiers, champs/europa league, domestic cups to say they are extremely good opportunities. I would still approach them cautiously as they arent born from the filters, so for beginners cup games would be hard, but if you have a solid strategy, no real reason to avoid. Glad you managed to get on the game mate
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@darri Absolutely. Found the Wolves post very interesting.
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I enjoyed the wolves post. I just last night decided to try trading cup games. Backed the overs in the wolves game at 2.4 at 68 mins, amazing value in that game
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@darri For me Darri it was excellent. I can appreciate it is a lot for you to do all the time but it is very useful. Maybe just pick some of the trades to do it with, because they lost, or they were unusual in some way, or because it was a very successful one such as the Wolves trade. I guess I am asking for picking a variety so we can see your thought processes in the different situations.
Big thanks
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let me know if the wolves post is something you like more of, happy to do a more streamlined version in future. Like i said i want to do less one day updates and maybe bunch them up into a weekly post with a better more in detail run down. It can get a tad repetitive to write up and im sure its not providing any value to you if i just post p/l sheets everyday with no real insight into the reasoning behind the trade in full. I think i liked how the layout of the wolves post went and its easy to do. Just getting ideas for what people like on here so that when i start including videos we can start adding value in the right areas.
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Aberdeen suffering from this storm! Total flooding everywhere, i live in the city centre and its crazy. https://www.facebook.com/FubarNews/videos/626507681309408
Means im stuck inside today, all iv heard is emergency service sirens all morning
and thunder! Im sure Aberdeen is filming some epic disaster movie right now.Not much in terms of trades tonight, Atalanta game i dont expect to be able to trade that due to amount of goals expected but will still keep on watchlist.
But:
LCS/LTD: Malmo 0-0/0-1
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@daniel-cooper It appears like im thinking about a lot of things at once but the benefit of using the PRE-INPLAY-PRICE model is it takes the decision process away from your own hunches/opinions. PRE takes 5 mins to find, i use flashscores to find key players. If you use the computer version then make window fullscreen and then head over top scorers on the standings tab, you can then click on each team in the league and find stats on all the players for that season. Very easy to do 5 mins before a game, then just jot that down and only trade if those key players are playing. INPLAY again you will probably have a set rule here, so for me i only enter between 65-85 mins. A small window within the match. I only watch the game from HT only i dont care about first half. I make sure the key players i listed are playing and playing well. Then this is when personal preference kicks in do you base it off the EYE test which is watching the game and being able to spot when a goal is likely or use inplay stats, both work. I didnt even look at the stats when i placed the trade but you can see they both matched up so both methods work. For stats entry look for recent chances so from 2nd half only what happened? has there been a lot of shots and attacks within the last 5-10-15 mins to warrant goal pressure. Goals come out of nowhere sometimes but we have to try limit risk as traders so having stats say momentum is picking up here and a goal seems likely. Then if both key players and inplay stats compliment each other i look at PRICE. This is with experience but even after just 10-20 games youll be able to have gained a knowledge of what prices tend to be around your entry window. Paper trade the next 10-20 games and make note of what prices where at certain time points in the game, find an average and thats now your base price. Then when you next come to trade make sure your price on offer is better and then you can have a slight edge. Obviously certain types of games ie heavy favs will be slightly worse prices but they themselves should have a base price and never take anything worse than your base price.
As you can see using the PRE-INPLAY-PRICE model im really not thinking about a lot when im placing its all done for me. The pre match is done at start and takes 5 mins. The inplay is self explanatory, more chances in a short period of time tends to lend towards a good places to enter and the only thing you must do is make sure the 2-4 key players you wrote down are playing. Then you check price to make sure its either level with base price or better an place that trade.
Hope this helps to understand why what i do is actually a way for me to repeat this over and over without having to be all over thinking trades all the work is taken from facts rather than an opinion/hunch, whch is why anyone can use this too because it takes your own opinion on a game away from you. OBVIOUSLY having a proven strategy thats profitable is the key to making it work but this was just me showing how i go about trading 2nd half games.
For watching the game yes if its tv perfect but there are plenty streams online via bet 365 or betfair or less official streams. For inplay stats method id use a combinations on flashscores or sofascore or if you happen to find a good inplay scanner tool. I know certain sites link the bet365 API to some sort of tool that can show inplay stats. But inplays stats can be unreliable sometimes so thats is why i prefer watching.
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Where do you tend to watch matches, did you see Sevilla on TV or watch online?
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Posting this for 2 reasons, one its good to show the type of strike rate i need in my strategies even after a few losses back to back how quickly i can come back in my favour and secondly there was method to this and it might help you in your own inplay analysis. Also the above shows a liability on the trade of £10 remember so winning a net profit 19.60 is a cracking return.PRE MATCH research was boiled down to finding lineups and seeking out the key players. Traders who trade any team game should know the key players and mark them down, we then take this inplay to see if they are playing well and look up for it. For wolves i marked down, Raul Jimenez (17 goals 6 assists) and Diogo Jota (7 Goals 1 assist) not necessarily because they are top scorers more that raul is top scorer and jota suits the system and is a big game player, both combined have contributed to 60% of all goals scored in the prem league for them this season. For sevilla Ocampos (14 Goals and 3 assists) and Banega (3 goals 7 assists) again season contribution is 50% of the goals. Boh teams had relatively good motivations for this as wolves need it for europe and first time back in the comp, sevilla are europa league legends and im questioning why i never outright trade them these days. Take all this into inplay now.
INPLAY was good not much in terms of start stop, flow was perfect and zero timewasting which was different to the united game were copenhagen were just trying to hang on for ET.
But here are the 2nd half stats:
As you can see a total domination from sevilla. What i was seeing wasnt the individual stats i never even looked at them but i was seeing them pass and move into really dangerous areas even if shots didnt come from it. But these stats show a really good attack momentum and pressure building even if a huge amount of urgency wasnt shown. Then came the KEY players. If you seen my entry it was as soon as diogo jota came on. Using pre match research we had i marked him down as a key player. Now obviously he didnt score but with wolves opting for 2 attacking subs in jota and in neto wolves looked for counter opportunities. Ocampos and banega looked lively with banega dictating. For me these are all signs to enter. Now to look at does the price reflect this or do we have an edge on the market here?PRICE was 1.49 to back over 0.5 goals at HT of course i knew it was going to be rather good come 70 if scores remained. I looked at the correct score price on offer when jota was about to come on and entered at 1.5 to lay as shown above. The market was suggesting that this was going to be 0-0. For me this represented huge value.
Ocampos scored and was assisted by Banega!!
In terms of looking at this trade all areas of the my go to model i chat all the time about of PRE-INPLAY-PRICE all came together nicely here. Remember they all have to compliment each other. We easily could have lost this trade but we are making sure that we value all our info and see if value is on offer, basing on what i said above it was. Remember there are always different ways to trade, discipline is key, my strike rate allows for losses without a need to go hunting for more, dont be frustrated after a few losses. Hope this post helps with the understanding of what i look for in a trade and hopefully you can pick some of the parts you like into your own trades.
This is amazing insight! I wish I had the brains to consider all this myself, but this is great stuff!
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@cenk so on my results sheet the lcs/back over sheet shows what the back of the next overs was. So if it was 0-0 then what the over 0.5goals back price was if 0-1/1-0 then 1.5 goals and if 1-1 then 2.5 goals. I do this to make it easier for people to track. The post i just did the market i looked at was the Correct score market. The lay price set for 0-0 was 1.50. That equivalent to 3.0 as a back bet on over 0.5 goals. So in the case of the wolves game i lay 0-0 correct score at 1.5 which is the same as backing over 0.5 goals for 3.0. Same result just a more liquid market at the time, im using betdaq for this challenge series and liquidity is only really available on the match odds and correct score markets. I would normally back the next overs as i described above. When i move back to betfair i will go back to the overs markets again. Keeping the results sheet consistent in line with that thought of going back to overs for consistency.
For post you reposted those are my qualifying scores. So if at 65-85 mins the matches are still at that score and using the PRE-INPLAY-PRICE model i discussed below then i will either lay the correct current score or back the overs market for one more goal.
