The road to full time
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@darri Have you considered automating that SHG strategy Darri? I literally have a Bot in BFBM that you can set up to fire at Half time on those specific scorelines, set the min odds and the period you want it to fire eg up to 10 mins into the 2nd half. All you'd have to do is input the shortlist of matches in the morning or even the entire weekends selections on the Friday and then just leave it on. If you're not using inplay stats for this strategy then this way it literally becomes a set and forget pre match trade in terms of you having to be there to monitor it. Just something to consider
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Just to do a follow up on my decision to ditch all inplay trades for football. Just a bit of analysis on the LTD and SHG (inplay).
The SHG was using 4pt staking. It had a 3 scoreline criteria 0-0/1-0/0-1 and min odds of 1.25. So during a day lets use the weekend for example, id get a notification that its HT normally id set an alarm/reminder on phone. Id then check if the scoreline is still ok and if im likely to get matched in the next 10 mins after HT. These are things that are taking me less than 5 mins. Hardly anything to complain about. However it was meaning id need to be able to jump on those trades if i wanted to trade that day. Hardly great for a weekend when friends and family are off. Fair enough during the week and all your waiting for is the football at night to watch.
The LTD was using no more than 3pts. It had no criteria for avoidance other than pre match odds/filter. So im able to place these trade first thing in morning and not have to look at it again all day. The flexibility this has is hard to measure for each person but for me this time saved is huge. Im able to sit back and take my mind off trading, get involved in other things, be around people and not be on my phone.
The SHG was taking up more time, making me want to be around just in case it qualifies for scoreline and odds, staking more to win less, needed a higher strike rate/more volume, tracking data on them was a pain as unless i traded the game I wouldnt have known if it qualified odds wise. As you can see the SHG is super inefficient compared to the LTD. Its a no brainer to ditch it and instead invest a tiny amount more in ltd for better efficiency. I had made tweaks recently to both strats. This put the shg on a good path to increasing what it was before but in the last month based on background testing with the new tweak the ltd was still averaging better returns and the gap was widening.
This approach isnt about me eeking out extra profit and squeezing every last penny from a strategy/looking for the golden strategy/scenario hunting. This is me finally maturing towards a happier way of trading. I dont ever want to be super detailed in my trades. I just want something i can compound every month. Take out a calculator and input my current bank, now compound that with 10% made every month, you can see that there really isnt a huge amount of growth past the 3 year mark in terms of the "ceiling" i was talking about. This strategy is actually inline to make more than 10% so even more a case of no need to be trading so much.
Just thought this might help explain more. I sort of posted a vague answer in a more general way but here i thought id explain the reasons for the SHG vs LTD decision. Cricket will be different, ipl/big bash I can trade at quiet points during the week and can be more of a pick up and trade, if im free type situation. My way of trading these is super easy and only requires data on average score and key players, all of which is super easy to google.. Ill be posting my approach tomorrow. Lets hope that rest of year i can keep to this consistent and easy approach. And for those that have asked yes ill be posting all my LTDs on this blog as i do still want to continue to show full transparency as i think that keeps everything im saying relevant and keeps me in check.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@darri said in The road to full time:
LTD list for tonight:
Austin vs LA fc WIN
1/1
there are no more ltds until Saturday, im busy rest of day but should be able to do a post about T20 cricket tomorrow, its slightly different to all the guides iv seen on here but takes some from them all.Nice one - I got on that too!
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@darri said in The road to full time:
LTD list for tonight:
Austin vs LA fc WIN
1/1
there are no more ltds until Saturday, im busy rest of day but should be able to do a post about T20 cricket tomorrow, its slightly different to all the guides iv seen on here but takes some from them all. -
@darri said in The road to full time:
@dj-reid ill share what i would have been doing had i not made this change probably friday when i have a chance. It will detail how iv been able to nail t20s this past year and a bit. But for my future strat ill just be testing as iv got no data on it yet.
Perfect
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@dj-reid ill share what i would have been doing had i not made this change probably friday when i have a chance. It will detail how iv been able to nail t20s this past year and a bit. But for my future strat ill just be testing as iv got no data on it yet.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Im making the decision today to stop all inplay trades. This has been a big decision. My journey from rookie to full time trader has been all about late goals. Its also been all about cricket in the last year. Both of these things have seen me enjoy a totally different life. They have helped me invest/start a business with the profits. However, because of that its meant other areas of my life have become busier, im not complaining its great, but it takes away from trading time.
Iv been looking over the numbers for all my strats iv ever had. Cricket is my highest points per trade. But 2nd is this LTD. It trumps what i was doing with the late goals (yes the one strat that made me go full time!). Its also nearly 1.5x better than my SHG from background testing. Now yes i get that its newer and its not had the longevity of the others. Variances might eventually hit it. But its standing strong.
So from today all my trading is just going to be pre match. The LTD being the pillar. Im away to go start testing other pre match strats. In the meantime while i go test ill be increasing the "to win" amount from 1pt to 1.5pts. Long term will totally depend on if i can find a suitable partner to this strat. Now test cricket can still be included, ill also be testing a variation during the ipl of a set and forget approach for t20s, nothing new to people but it will just be selecting an odds range for both sides to hit and lay to lock in profit.
I find it funny how when i first started trading all i was wanting to do was increase profits and live off trading, i achieved that. Now all i want is this to be passive, with as little effort as possible. Placing trades in the morning and getting on with my day is actually way more appealing to me than getting the most out of trading. I spoke to someone earlier. I said there will be people who milk every ounce of profit, i once did this. Trading consumed me just like any other 9-5 job would. But i started trading to get out of that loop. The longer this has gone on the more im willing to accept being average. Its funny how we never just accept that status. Its especially harder for me given not only my age but my personality is as most know, an over active thinker. Im naturally looking for something to do or ways to improve. I really think lockdown and reading/listening/watching self improvement books/topics/vids people have recommended has clicked with me, i feel more calm. I can also see a ceiling with trading and my end goals (bank size before i stop compounding). Whereas other things im interested in dont. So its makes more sense to put time and effort into those things. Helps that those other things im passionate about and its thanks to betfair im able to start them.
I think this past few months have been more about me telling myself this is the way to go. I feel iv been pushing trading and not enjoying it. Yes the money is good, but im not seeing the same dopamine hit when i get winners etc. That side of it bores me now. Im in this purely for the money not the job aspect. We all plan to trade sport for a living it sounds great, but football can be tedious at times and the more you watch the less appealing it becomes. This will probably be less money overall coming in as i turn to pre match, i do think less of an edge is present. But im happy with the reduction. Here's the thing. Compounding will still work. Like iv been saying there is a ceiling to trading. At some stage ill hit that ceiling and there will be no more growth. So by just accepting itll take longer to get there but with less effort im happy becoming "average". Anyone can see how quickly a bank builds even with tiny increases each month. This strategy is more than enough to get me going. Can i add to it, ill find out in due course, but im in no rush. Ill continue to track the shgs strike rates, as who knows what will happen long term, but right now they hold no interest to me.
Bit of a cross between an update and a self reflection post. Im happy with how things are now. My plan is to get to January doing it this way and then assess from there if i even need to add a new strat. Im hopeful this is me for a long time now, not needing to change/remove/add. One of the keys to my previous success was consistency in my approach. I practised what i preached. However id say since the start of this year iv been adding and removing and been a bit inconsistent in method, which has led to me having average results. Hopefully now we will see a steady but handsome average p/l every month
Love this
Will you be sharing your strat and selections for the IPL or just focusing on the testing for now?
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LTD list for tonight:
Austin vs LA fc
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I think this is a smart move, I was once asked by a very rich man, why I didn't just scale up trading to doing £10,000 stakes
Apart from the obvious with liquidity, my main thought was to what aim?
The question that I always ask myself and always come back to is this...... 'What does success for ME look like?'
Notice how I said me, I can 100% make more from my trading (I make a very good amount from it) but to what end? More time at the computer, increasing my risk and stakes, potentially adding in other ways of trading - that would all take away from success for me.
Which has changed massively since having a child.
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Ill also be posting the ltds on here rather than the football thread. I think its great other traders are posting so much on there with good picks, however it can get a bit spammy during busy times. So for me focussing on this thread and reading the football thread when i get the chance. So ill post the lists on here and update when i can. Keeps everything neat and easy to follow. So when im giving advice or speaking about a topic iv got trades to look back on this thread rather than on the football thread when itll go missing over a weekend.
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Im making the decision today to stop all inplay trades. This has been a big decision. My journey from rookie to full time trader has been all about late goals. Its also been all about cricket in the last year. Both of these things have seen me enjoy a totally different life. They have helped me invest/start a business with the profits. However, because of that its meant other areas of my life have become busier, im not complaining its great, but it takes away from trading time.
Iv been looking over the numbers for all my strats iv ever had. Cricket is my highest points per trade. But 2nd is this LTD. It trumps what i was doing with the late goals (yes the one strat that made me go full time!). Its also nearly 1.5x better than my SHG from background testing. Now yes i get that its newer and its not had the longevity of the others. Variances might eventually hit it. But its standing strong.
So from today all my trading is just going to be pre match. The LTD being the pillar. Im away to go start testing other pre match strats. In the meantime while i go test ill be increasing the "to win" amount from 1pt to 1.5pts. Long term will totally depend on if i can find a suitable partner to this strat. Now test cricket can still be included, ill also be testing a variation during the ipl of a set and forget approach for t20s, nothing new to people but it will just be selecting an odds range for both sides to hit and lay to lock in profit.
I find it funny how when i first started trading all i was wanting to do was increase profits and live off trading, i achieved that. Now all i want is this to be passive, with as little effort as possible. Placing trades in the morning and getting on with my day is actually way more appealing to me than getting the most out of trading. I spoke to someone earlier. I said there will be people who milk every ounce of profit, i once did this. Trading consumed me just like any other 9-5 job would. But i started trading to get out of that loop. The longer this has gone on the more im willing to accept being average. Its funny how we never just accept that status. Its especially harder for me given not only my age but my personality is as most know, an over active thinker. Im naturally looking for something to do or ways to improve. I really think lockdown and reading/listening/watching self improvement books/topics/vids people have recommended has clicked with me, i feel more calm. I can also see a ceiling with trading and my end goals (bank size before i stop compounding). Whereas other things im interested in dont. So its makes more sense to put time and effort into those things. Helps that those other things im passionate about and its thanks to betfair im able to start them.
I think this past few months have been more about me telling myself this is the way to go. I feel iv been pushing trading and not enjoying it. Yes the money is good, but im not seeing the same dopamine hit when i get winners etc. That side of it bores me now. Im in this purely for the money not the job aspect. We all plan to trade sport for a living it sounds great, but football can be tedious at times and the more you watch the less appealing it becomes. This will probably be less money overall coming in as i turn to pre match, i do think less of an edge is present. But im happy with the reduction. Here's the thing. Compounding will still work. Like iv been saying there is a ceiling to trading. At some stage ill hit that ceiling and there will be no more growth. So by just accepting itll take longer to get there but with less effort im happy becoming "average". Anyone can see how quickly a bank builds even with tiny increases each month. This strategy is more than enough to get me going. Can i add to it, ill find out in due course, but im in no rush. Ill continue to track the shgs strike rates, as who knows what will happen long term, but right now they hold no interest to me.
Bit of a cross between an update and a self reflection post. Im happy with how things are now. My plan is to get to January doing it this way and then assess from there if i even need to add a new strat. Im hopeful this is me for a long time now, not needing to change/remove/add. One of the keys to my previous success was consistency in my approach. I practised what i preached. However id say since the start of this year iv been adding and removing and been a bit inconsistent in method, which has led to me having average results. Hopefully now we will see a steady but handsome average p/l every month
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People might haven noticed me posting a FHG which goes against the data only approach. For me sometimes opportunities are too good to miss. Im a good judge of a game, its how i was so successful with the Late goals past few years. But these will be very seldom and most likely only ever on games on TV. A very highly selective approach. Im a pessimist in terms of FHGs for me the market isnt good enough long term liquidity wise to be a successful one. I think you can build a bank on them or if you do plan long term, only ever trade the big games. For me trading them only when on tv makes liquidity not an issue. This strategy is very much based on the classic eye test/team match ups/fh form.
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Quick update:
Nothing on the filters today and cricket cancelled. Tomorrow there are games on the SHG and LTD. I will only be able to do the LTDs and then the 1 night game i have if it qualifies for SHG. So right now based on odds 2 LTDs and 1 SHG.
Dont panic if these start poorly as the testing has just come off the back of a huge run of wins. However long play this works and im just getting it rolling. You cant time the markets and in sports trading you cant time the variance, its sport! Hopefully tho we get off to a good start and put the past dull summer behind us. We banked a good profit from football over 30pts but would like to see a clearer rise in the rest of this year. Iv a big decision to make regarding these strats, but i want to have a full year of data before we decide. Im not going to add to these so its literally a case of do i trade both or get rid of one. No one can decide that and ill only let data control this decision.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
also ipl is just around the corner so will try do a small take on my approach to them and how i go about trading them. Because the markets move so fast its hard to post inplay trades so instead ill try give a guide on my way so you could try get in at same times. Its nothing special but it does seem to be quite consistent and fairly easy to understand. 14/15 winning trades in the ipl before the break, making around 25pts. So hopefully the variance wont hit in the 2nd half
Looking forward to this!
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also ipl is just around the corner so will try do a small take on my approach to them and how i go about trading them. Because the markets move so fast its hard to post inplay trades so instead ill try give a guide on my way so you could try get in at same times. Its nothing special but it does seem to be quite consistent and fairly easy to understand. 14/15 winning trades in the ipl before the break, making around 25pts. So hopefully the variance wont hit in the 2nd half
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Last day of the international break, while some are annoyed at missing trades, for me it was a good time to go over data and be clear in the mind that all strats are good with the planned tweaks. Please remember guys not to become addicted to all this. Iv been there. Annoyed that there are no games on the filters, i want to make money!! But this isnt healthy. I saw a post a while ago saying cant believe i missed x game, missed out. If you have this mindset you are in a danger zone of addiction, remember i was a gambler. You do not need to trade every single game on a filter. If your strategy relies heavily on you trading every game because of variance then its not a good strategy long term. You need to have a life outside of trading. Runs of wins in high percentage strats are the main reason for this, they come across as you beating the markets and trading is easy. Yet these high % trades are also crippling if you get 2-3 losses in a short time period. You have to be strong in mindset to not deviate from your plans.
Managed to really go over my data yesterday, just spent a few hours making sure i wasnt missing anything and that we can be good to go from sat onwards. It wont be this month the winter leagues hit so still predominantly summer league only still. I did try to incorporate a few winter league games last month but went against the plan and im very focussed on not ever needing to think about trades again. If its on the filter and matches the criteria for scorelines its in. Its almost robotic like. I dont have a lot of scenarios only 3 scorelines for the whole shg filter and any game on the ltd is a trade. My trading right now could not be simpler, so as long as it now ticks in a positive direction this would be my ideal version of trading going forward. These past few years i was addicted, fair enough i made a bank, but i neglected other aspects of life family/friends, im now seeing that all that effort wasnt making me happy and i wasnt able to reap the rewards of trading and the lifestyle it can bring. Now i am since i withdrew the money and made this change. Did i need to go through a tough period outside of trading perhaps. This is gonna be a huge end of year. Im excited to see where we end up.
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@darri thanks will definitely have a watch the crypto talk goes over my head at times be useful to at least understand some of the basics
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Looking for things to listen to while i get on with day to day stuff, this video popped up on my recommended. I think its a great video explaining the current crypto landscape. Have a watch/listen when you get the chance, will give a solid base to when i start adding my own posts about this.
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@darri I was trading the match outcome market, laying at low odds and then trading out when they drifted. Over the previous days I was accumulating a decent profit. No doubt fuelled by overconfidence, I changed my approach thinking we were heading for 1 outcome so took that profit and used it to lay higher odds for it to come crashing in.
Upon reflection, my biggest error was mindset. As football is my main strategy I had gone in treating it more like gambling and had subconsciously written off the minimum stakes as "bets". When I was on a roll I wasn't thinking like a trader with an exit plan and instead kept pushing it, and underestimated how much momentum impacts the price. Yes it goes down, then recovers, by near the end of Day 4/ Day 5 it wasn't bouncing back. That makes sense when I think about it logically as there's less time to change the outcome. In hindsight, definitely a few basic mistakes from my part. Writing this out has helped me see those lessons and I'll make sure I'm not so complacent in future.
My response was meant to be a warning that cricket and horse racing can have some big swings. As you say, bank management / risk management is key.
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@dan-mackinnon what do you mean by a 14pt swing then if your using min stakes? What kind of trade did you do?
