The road to full time

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So those videos yesterday were so well received thanks guys! Even tho i rushed it, shame this forum doesnt allow certain file types to be posted. Iv an idea of how i can post a video and not have a huge post behind it. Iv setup a shortlist/guide for the layout of each post. Iv got 2 games to preview today. Still no mic yet so no sound but will be good to find if these are the formats people prefer over time. Once i have the mic at least i can then explain the stats in a quicker detail. I dont want to bore you going through each individual stat on a post. More summary of the key parts.

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@stuart-capstick imagine no got it ordered because im trying to start posting videos on here and got a little side project relating to trading that will require decent sound recording

Stuart Capstick

@darri

Are you going to sing?

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@finn-kristensen said in The road to full time:

@darri Videos are great as you get to see all the things you need to look at "IRL". If you then back it up with a post, like you did, it's even better. Definitely the way to go.

totally agree here videos help explain things easier than written instructions but you do need these as well for people to use as a reference point so they can look back on how it was done so they can do it for themselves.

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@finn-kristensen thanks mate! once the mic arrives ill be able to add decent sound which might be a good or bad thing for viewers

Finn Kristensen

@darri Videos are great as you get to see all the things you need to look at "IRL". If you then back it up with a post, like you did, it's even better. Definitely the way to go.

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https://www.loom.com/share/4d4b1f376d1d44d9847e6a6748c10a79

Goal coming too early. These things happen. Whilst im not an inplay stats guy i prefer to watch the game it was a game to keep tracking. They were dominating possession and all the momentum was with them.

What id look at here is the momentum bar provided by sofa score. Clearly before the goal linz were on top. Id then look at shots on target, shots off, shots inside box, big chances and goalkeeper saves. Its then easy to see had this game continued in this fashion it would have been a good inplay game.

Obviously we couldnt judge price just now. What i wanted to show was how to use pre and inplay to judge a trade. Once we do this a few more times we can pop up a few games that we can judge price aswell to have a complete guide from idea to trade.

Is video format what everyone would prefer? alongside a detailed post to refer back to?

Finn Kristensen

@darri Excellent, Darri! A great way to show how you make use of stats and information before entering a match. Very easy to follow your steps and by the end, it was clear that this will be a potential trade for the second half when the odds have risen high enough and the IP stats and scoreline makes it relevant. Thanks for sharing.

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I rushed getting that post up sorry, iv just gone over it and edited all the key parts. I tried to upload a video but the forum wont allow me to post certain file types. So had to use loom. By the time i had got something recorded the game just kicked off. Iv just gone a tidied it up so if you read it before have another read haha much better.

Martin Walker

Brilliant, ive been looking for an easy way to find out
assists

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https://www.loom.com/share/ec39af539d304736abd6789ad67bb7e5

Please dont panic the mic is on its way just ordered one from amazon, so future videos will have sound! Youll have my scottish accent in soon

Just wanted to explain the thought process behind how to research a game and then some of the little tips you can add to narrow a game down. As we go on instead of showing games that qualify ill also show why i rule out games.

So this was a game that flagged up on my filter. Remember all stats i look at can also be manually done so no need to rely solely on software but it just makes it easier.

First off i only ever look at current form so last 5 games home/away and only this seasons data. Its how i do it dont worry if you prefer a wider range of games.

I then look at goals OVERS/UNDERS. Is this game a 0-0 ghost? From past evidence no. Hasnt been a 0-0 in any of there last 5 games each. Then add in the H2 because that what our strategy evolves around. So h2 is over 80%, perfect.

Goal times isnt a priority, but if your extreme with stats and prefer robotic style so emotions dont play part of your trading it shows a nice entry time for you to enter. There was in this game a strong bias towards more goals in h2, 46% H1 and 54% H2

NOW THE MAIN STATS: Scored conceded page is where everyone should really start eliminating bad games. Hartberg concede 100% of last 5 games. Linz score 100% ft last 5. Already we have the notion that 0-0 or 1-0 is trade able scores. Further to this if we are lcs/ltd 2nd half they have fantastic h2 stats. Home team concede 80% and away score 80%.

We then head over to flashscore or any other live score website. We have a quick look at head to heads make sure they arent a boogie side. They arent. They did win the last game tho so i would need to make sure this game provides strong inplay stats. But head to head at hartberg linz havent lost and won the majority.

Now the added edges come in. I did this quickly because iv been mucking about with screen recording and lost track of time. BTC dont like when you post certain file types, had recorded one at 2:30 but trying to convert a file to upload wouldnt work. So using loom as a quick option.
Looking at the current form of both teams home and away, hartberg are in dreadful form. Linz while indifferent last 5 have dominated the league away from home.

Now the team news/lineups. Hopefully iv shown a quick guide there for lineups and what to look for. Linza have a wide range of goalscorers. Not many have a huge influence. Think of vardy and kane at spurs they would be contributing a significant amount more to the team than this example. So i highlight the top 4 and wait for lineups to come out Kasier, Tetteh, Friesier and Balic all noted down. I then look at top assists, Holland and Michorl. These guys are the rock of the team. Think de bruyne at city.

Now we have all the key players, we have our strat ready we now wait for lineups. All the key players we want are playing. TICK.

Odds are very short. My approach to this would be to wait for later in game 60-65 mins is this game lively, is it 0-0/1-0 if not move on. The reason we would have to wait late on for this game is odds. Much like the barca game last night, huge favourite but at 65-70 mins everyone who backed barca started to panic sell. BE FEARFUL WHEN OTHERS ARE GREEDY, BE GREEDY WHEN OTHERS ARE FEARFUL! This works with my strategy. I didnt trade the barca game but works in the same method.

If the game is 0-0/1-0 at 60 mins ill pop up with another video explaining what id do to see if its becomes a trade. I wont be trading only showing how id do it. Any questions between please ask. Ill b adding a guide to the google doc, rather than the site because of people stealing my stuff haha!

Conclusion using all the stats gathered we can come up with 80% seems a key base line strike rate for this game for 2nd half goal. So convert that to odds 1.25 is base price. So for me if this game is 1.4-1.5 come 60-65 mins i could become interested. We would then look at inplay stats to judge whther linz are pressing for a goal. If they are and price is match then we have a PRE-INPLAY-PRICE trade

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@keith-anderson thanks again great advice

Akiva Anderson

@finn-kristensen said in The road to full time:

@keith-anderson Why do you prefer LCS instead of Backing Over/Laying Under the current number of goals? I would assume there was more liquidity in the Over/Under markets?

Good question! Since football has returned I’ve basically just been backing overs.

Also, I like to eliminate matches because the odds are too high. Backing Overs would probably entice me to trade more.

Akiva Anderson

@ben-dobie said in The road to full time:

@keith-anderson cheers Keith much appreciated, I'm going to keep tracking this based upon laying at no higher than 5.0 ..... it's only 45 games in but with 37 winners which so far makes it profitable even @ 5.0 (I estimated this myself earlier just wanted your take on it).....won't be risking any money until it's a couple of months tested yet though. Thanks for coming back to me

At HT last night, the LTD in the Porto match was 4.0. Way too high to LTD, so I backed Over 1.5 goals at EVENS. There’s more than one way to look at a trade.

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@stuart-capstick said in The road to full time:

@ben-dobie

Sounds very similar to the results I'm getting, Ben. Mine go back over hundreds of games, again laying at no more than 5.
There are some horrific days in there, but also periods of 25 successive wins. More importantly, every month ends up profitable

As Keith has said, it opens up so many more selections; this is the problem I'm dealing with right now. I can't, and don't want, to trade them all, so I'm trying to find optimal entry points or criteria for entry. For example, the 0-1 or 0-2 HT score seems to be very fruitful.

Keep going,though. It's very satisfying when you find something that can be long term profitable based on your own idea.

Hi @Stuart-Capstick Thanks for your feedback mate, this sounds very encouraging...have to say I've stumbled across it based upon my filter was try and find a set and forget for O 1.5 in second half (which so far is also profitable) but I'm not gonna jump in so early. Good luck with yours mate, hopefully we'll get there one day

Finn Kristensen

@keith-anderson Why do you prefer LCS instead of Backing Over/Laying Under the current number of goals? I would assume there was more liquidity in the Over/Under markets?

Stuart Capstick

@ben-dobie

Sounds very similar to the results I'm getting, Ben. Mine go back over hundreds of games, again laying at no more than 5.
There are some horrific days in there, but also periods of 25 successive wins. More importantly, every month ends up profitable

As Keith has said, it opens up so many more selections; this is the problem I'm dealing with right now. I can't, and don't want, to trade them all, so I'm trying to find optimal entry points or criteria for entry. For example, the 0-1 or 0-2 HT score seems to be very fruitful.

Keep going,though. It's very satisfying when you find something that can be long term profitable based on your own idea.

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@keith-anderson cheers Keith much appreciated, I'm going to keep tracking this based upon laying at no higher than 5.0 ..... it's only 45 games in but with 37 winners which so far makes it profitable even @ 5.0 (I estimated this myself earlier just wanted your take on it).....won't be risking any money until it's a couple of months tested yet though. Thanks for coming back to me

Akiva Anderson

@ben-dobie said in The road to full time:

@keith-anderson @Darri I've decided that having my own strategy is the best way to go, think it will help me handle the losing trades better às I'll have faith in my own tried and tested strategy long term and I have to feel like I'm earning myself. I'm learning so much from everybody on here though.
That said....@Keith-Anderson as you have a very reliable LCS / LTD strategy at half time do you know roughly what odds to expect at half time on the LCS ? I was testing a strategy for second half goals overs but have discovered this morning that so far it looks like it could be a very good LCS at half time strat ... Early days yet mind

If I’m LCS I wouldn’t lay above 5. In saying that I would be prepared to wait for odds to drop.

Also, Between LTD / LCS - it took me a while to make money on LCS. Probably because
LCS opened up more trading opportunities for me and I wasn’t ready for it.

LTD is a great way to learn odds movement for other strategies.

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@keith-anderson @Darri I've decided that having my own strategy is the best way to go, think it will help me handle the losing trades better às I'll have faith in my own tried and tested strategy long term and I have to feel like I'm earning myself. I'm learning so much from everybody on here though.
That said....@Keith-Anderson as you have a very reliable LCS / LTD strategy at half time do you know roughly what odds to expect at half time on the LCS ? I was testing a strategy for second half goals overs but have discovered this morning that so far it looks like it could be a very good LCS at half time strat ... Early days yet mind