The road to full time
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please read the last updated post, i explained i never put the LTD portion in the match odds market, instead put that into the LCS strategy as odds were in favour
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Hi Darri looking at your results mate I notice you have recorded the Luzern game the other night as a 4% profit at odds of 2.02.
from an outsider looking in, it looks like you have doubled up here to chase your loses rather than sticking to your 1% of your bank for each trade?
to get the 4% profit you must of placed 4% of your bank on that trade.
Is this something that you do?
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@john-hurst yeah these are
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are these the same trades that you do to make a full time income?
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@gary-brown sorry mate changed the layout of the blog description, will make it easier for later down the line. Like matt said the results sheet is under the 2020 tab at the top
iv been waiting to post the next round of games due to btc stats updates that happen, did not notice them before but must be because of the weird schedule covid has had on the games. -
@gary-brown They are still there Gary. Click on the 2020 under Results in the OP. all the tabs should be there. Hope that helps
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HI Darri I was wondering why you have taken off your spreadsheets?
I was going to see if their were any selections today -
Just checked the filters for a quick glimpse, while they have appeared on my other filters they are now starting to appear on my main one, SUMMER LEAGUES ARE BACK! With covid i suppose there isnt a transition period we already had the break between march and june. Its nice to see them back. We also would have had a international comp normally for the summer but missing out on that too. Nice to see old favs coming back, i prefer midseason games than late season mainly due to the markets. Already seeing sweden late goals prices being super cheap to lay. Problem is with late season prices the markets are in full anitcipation of the team motivations. This is why i keep harping on about it. If your not taking it into account then the markets has an edge on you because the price normally reflects this, compared to what the price would have been midseason.
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Just going to make this a quick one. Was a cracking few games today only the FHG letting us down and if you have a look at the stats you can see we were close to a full house.Really happy with the 2 Italian games, getting both the lcs part and then both games presenting enough danger for a goal i then used the LTD portion. Been waiting until after the drinks break to enter my stakes.
The Luzern game while it was also a LTD/LCS trade the lcs/back over odds were much better than the draw odds at the time. So i just put the full LCS/LTD stake onto the Back overs market. Same thing anyway just explaining why its only one market.
A nice turn of a couple green days put us back to a good position. Like i said to people dont worry about the luck factor or the losses, focus on your next 5 trades. These 2 green days have rebuilt the confidence and i felt good about my decisions this weekend.
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Final quick post, this is why im building the FHG filter this way. We find out what affects the overall strike rate of our filter. We have added a tweak to this 2nd batch and are waiting to see if it then affects the filter on a broad level. Instead of further narrowing with too much stuff so if we also added price we wouldnt be seeing if our changes made the right difference. Its like a science test, you dont just add heaps of variables at each new test cause thatll make the tests inaccurate hard to compare.
When you have the general strike rate of your filtered games, that is when you know minimum price. Then you start to tweak entries etc. If we had started to test these with a set price in mind or a set time we wouldnt understand how the market behaves in general. Start broad then narrow. Dont do it the other way. Find what works from the broad level then double down and focus on that part. Like with the tweaks we made. There was a hypothesis that having a home team which favoured FHGs had more weight than just the overall. In the next phase we will know what our minimum odds are and if our changes made a difference. Then we can move onto price and optimal entries.
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@darri thanks Darri this is all super helpful. Will continue to trade and paper tinker on the side to refine my strategy. Loads of food for thought!
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Remember as humans we are triggered to think that a lot of winners means we must be doing better. So high strike rates are what people prefer to find. Instead look to see at what stage profit is better and your ROI is better at. For me that was later on in matches. I used to be strict getting in at 60 mins, but you cant just label every game the same. Give yourself a window. So for me thats 70-80mins between that time ill decide if ill enter a 2nd half goal. If there is no goal pressure in that window ill just turn off that game and move on.
Remember when we enter a market we are competing against someone else who thinks differently to you. Make sure your entering at what price you want/need. This is why edges and stats are needed. I enter that late on because people are trying to get their trade out the market because they are cautious. Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Thats why before a game you have to know your strike rate and then at what price is your minimum. That way you can spot value. If for example on my LTD i know that at the time im entering based on a 50% strike rate anything higher than 2.0 is not value and anything under 1.8 is. Same can be done with LCS or any strategy. Just comes with a lot of data and experience to spot when the markets have it priced in your favour.
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@sam-maccuaig it sounds like you have a set system in place from your original post. What id make sure im recording when i enter is what the price was and when that goal comes in. So if your entering at HT what was the qualifying price? Then you can get an idea of what a mean/average price is. Take that price and rule out any price below it. I do it with later trades. If its not at 1.4/1.5 by 60-65 mins ill leave the trade alone.
Then you take the average goal time. Find a sweet spot. The problem with exiting that late on after getting in at HT is thats a lot of swing against you. Id expect odds have risen to about 1.8/2.0 by then. If you want to really limit and start to zone in on games look to add inplay. So a typical entry is once there is 4 shots on target from the favourite team.
Remember while a strike rate seems important it just gives you an idea your looking at the right games. Its profit per trade that matters. A typical SHG filter with a mind for HT entry should be high 80s/90s% strike rate. This is why the odds at HT are typically representative of this odds range = 1.2-1.3. I think less about strike rate and more about profit per trade and if you make profit overall. If you focus just on strike rate you might miss patterns. I only need a 50% strike rate for my LTD strategy. So dont just assume you need to be finding high win rate stuff to be profitable.
Please be careful with alex ong, test and paper trade his stuff before you commit. Betfair like him because he has nice clean videos. I personally dont mind his videos but im not looking to learn from anyone so please if you are make sure your paper trading his suggestions.
To revert back to your original question, if its profitable then then keep it going, just start to paper trade slight tweaks to it. So add a slight different entry/price/time/market see if it gives a better ROI over a large sample. Similar to the FHG project i started on here. Small tweaks can bring better results.
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Always paper trade though first and test it by writing down the odds etc when you do paper trade so you have a better feeling what it would look like if trading for real.
Then move onto small stakes using a free betting software such as bet angel basic
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@gary-brown this is why I love this place, never ending advice from people who have been there before!
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@sam-maccuaig
He has his own website and runs courses. He is expensive though to go on his courses though.It’s also a strategy that you can find on the ultimate football trader course which is called the fireball reloaded.
It is something Johannes who is regular in the forum likes to trade
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@gary-brown that’s very interesting thanks Gary, a lot of the odds are quite short so I’m going to play with this today and see how it goes
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Hi Sam if most of the goals are coming before 80mins you maybe worth looking into trading 1.5 goals above the current score line.
Then trading out after a goal.
If you search for Alex ONG and look at his video for over 1.5 goals it maybe a strategy that will give you better value if your filter is coming up with more second half goals early
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@gary-brown hi Gary, originally I was just letting them run and looking for any goal, but once I tracked enough data most of the goals my filter was sending up were coming between 45-75mins. I ran the numbers and exiting at 75mins reduced my strike rate, but cut overall losses by around 30%. Im now testing this properly as I trade and so far it’s working as planned
