The road to full time
-
Thanks guys! Firstly you can all blame @Keith-Anderson for me starting a blog/thread on btc, saw his when i first joined and thought it would help make me be more accountable for my trades. Also please reread what he just said it works!
@Stuart-Capstick Love this mate! I have said about quarterly in the past i stole it from charles(horse racing thread). Its a cracking idea. Trading is all about limiting risk. We research trades further to make sure they fit our strategy, we stake sensible amounts to protect our bank, we focus on getting good at one thing and importantly stay consistent. I think quarterly targets will seem silly to most beginners. But think limiting risk, If we have a bad day, week, we can allow it. The biggest hurdle for any newer trader especially those who maybe come from a gambling background like myself is the idea of chasing losses and the need for green, especially after a bad couple of days. Exactly what you said patches/runs come and go, its what your doing long term that matters.
-
@darri said in The road to full time:
@darri said in The road to full time:
I really want to stress the importance of mastering one thing at a time. How many of you are either testing or trading more than 1 strategy right now? Iv been there your making it ten times harder for yourself. I know your eager to find a portfolio and have games to trade every single day. But we are in this to find consistent profitable games/strats to trade.
Look around at the pros they are doing 1-2 strats but mainly rely on 1 main strategy. For me thats LCS/LTD both of which revolve around 1 key thing late goals. Im not saying thats all you can trade im just saying start to focus on what you can improve on. If you think i got here from luck of finding something good from all the rubbish i was trading your wrong. I stopped everything else and worked on my 2nd half entry. I took a bout 2 month before i was consistent. It took 2 months to tweak how i traded them.
But by just taking 2 months to tweak and improve 1 thing, iv now got a strategy thats consistent month on month. People are too eager to get going. I spoke to a member who is reverting back to a smaller bank because he wants to get his monthly bank growth consistent. Thats the perfect attitude.
Look at the fhg filter we are building its taken what 1 week to get 1 round of data, now we are already a few games worth on the next batch of games. Things snowball in trading. You start small, find something that works and then make it consistent. That £100 bank grows month on month. Stop chasing. You wouldnt chase a loss, so stop chasing a bigger bank they are the same problem.
Im showing via the fhg project that just working on one thing works. Stop focusing on getting things done quick. Slow and steady. Trading aint going away. Your not missing out. And it wont take long. By focusing on one strategy your going to become a better trader faster. Those that test multiple things all at once are the ones still plodding along with small banks hoping a lightbulb moment comes. Its hard on a forum to learn because you see other traders making profits or losses via different things. STOP! Focus on your own stuff!
Your all paper trading this fhg filter or some are doing their own version, apply that mindset to the rest of your trading. Put the hard graft in now tracking these games, then once its good to go start snowballing. Scary what a bank size you will get after just one year with 1 solid strategy. Im now full time because of that exact approach. Im still only using 1 main strategy, LATE GOALS.
PLEASE reread this one and the other one about following people on this forum. Make sure they back up what they say. Anyone can propose a trade, they can then claim to have/havent done the trade post game. Worry about your own trading its the only way going forward. Iv spoken to pros, members and even new members who have all tried this approach, it works. Im so fed up of people tipping ideas and then deciding to claim it if it wins or then say nah i didnt trade it if it doesnt. Even the big boys in the industry do it and people then assume they actually are oracles to sports trading.
Trust yourself. People that sell courses, software, strategies etc unless they actually are fully transparent be wary. Posting up trades/blogs/videos and then waiting to see if it wins/loses before they decide their stance please be cautious. There are some class traders if you are new and want to follow people. People that post inplay like keith, frode and me(rarely). We dont shy away from it when it loses, you can also see my spreadsheets and screenshots of the trades.
Please just start focusing on working on your own thing. Im adamant its the best way to go. I dont need to worry about what others trade and dont follow but i do take a strict stance when people have influence on others and then shy away inplay and then based on the results will decide if it was or wasnt a trade.
YOUR own strategy, YOUR own trades = YOUR own profit!
Away to do a post that i think will help a people part of the journey doc iv been writing. Let me know if you want something covered quickly.
Well said, @Darri
One of the main reasons I joined BTC was to learn for myself. I don’t rely on others, just me. BTC and the members, were an important part of my development as a trader.
-
@darri
Thanks for taking the time to post this.
I'm very much still in the tweaking stage of my one key strategy.
BUT- I'm still testing 2-3 others. Another lesson people could take from the pros is that a strategy needs to be tested fully:
- There will be purple patches (but an octopus could predict results correctly 10 times in a row just through chance)- doesn't mean the strategy is long term profitable.
- There will be horrific runs of losses- again, doesn't mean that it is long term unprofitable
This leads on to another thing you (Darri) have mentioned- think long term. So many people follow/try out a strategy for a week or so and then either ditch it or ramp up the stakes. One of the best pieces of advice I have heard (apologies, Darri, it may have been from you) is to think of profit in terms of yearly quarters rather than daily or weekly.
Looking back over the data on my SHG strategy, there are days when it finishes 4 points down; other days 5 points up- if I traded every game, which I don't because, well, I simply don't have the time. But, over three months/6 months/a year, the strategy is profitable. It needs tweaking to determine best entry points, in-play situation etc.
Finally, and again, I'm only repeating (probably) the good advice from Darri and others- this point of the season with promotion/relegation/couldn't give a f**k games always throws up anomalies. Add in the turmoil of COVID, no crowds, varying levels of match fitness etc and any previously reliable strategy will take a battering anyway.
-
@darri said in The road to full time:
I really want to stress the importance of mastering one thing at a time. How many of you are either testing or trading more than 1 strategy right now? Iv been there your making it ten times harder for yourself. I know your eager to find a portfolio and have games to trade every single day. But we are in this to find consistent profitable games/strats to trade.
Look around at the pros they are doing 1-2 strats but mainly rely on 1 main strategy. For me thats LCS/LTD both of which revolve around 1 key thing late goals. Im not saying thats all you can trade im just saying start to focus on what you can improve on. If you think i got here from luck of finding something good from all the rubbish i was trading your wrong. I stopped everything else and worked on my 2nd half entry. I took a bout 2 month before i was consistent. It took 2 months to tweak how i traded them.
But by just taking 2 months to tweak and improve 1 thing, iv now got a strategy thats consistent month on month. People are too eager to get going. I spoke to a member who is reverting back to a smaller bank because he wants to get his monthly bank growth consistent. Thats the perfect attitude.
Look at the fhg filter we are building its taken what 1 week to get 1 round of data, now we are already a few games worth on the next batch of games. Things snowball in trading. You start small, find something that works and then make it consistent. That £100 bank grows month on month. Stop chasing. You wouldnt chase a loss, so stop chasing a bigger bank they are the same problem.
Im showing via the fhg project that just working on one thing works. Stop focusing on getting things done quick. Slow and steady. Trading aint going away. Your not missing out. And it wont take long. By focusing on one strategy your going to become a better trader faster. Those that test multiple things all at once are the ones still plodding along with small banks hoping a lightbulb moment comes. Its hard on a forum to learn because you see other traders making profits or losses via different things. STOP! Focus on your own stuff!
Your all paper trading this fhg filter or some are doing their own version, apply that mindset to the rest of your trading. Put the hard graft in now tracking these games, then once its good to go start snowballing. Scary what a bank size you will get after just one year with 1 solid strategy. Im now full time because of that exact approach. Im still only using 1 main strategy, LATE GOALS.
PLEASE reread this one and the other one about following people on this forum. Make sure they back up what they say. Anyone can propose a trade, they can then claim to have/havent done the trade post game. Worry about your own trading its the only way going forward. Iv spoken to pros, members and even new members who have all tried this approach, it works. Im so fed up of people tipping ideas and then deciding to claim it if it wins or then say nah i didnt trade it if it doesnt. Even the big boys in the industry do it and people then assume they actually are oracles to sports trading.
Trust yourself. People that sell courses, software, strategies etc unless they actually are fully transparent be wary. Posting up trades/blogs/videos and then waiting to see if it wins/loses before they decide their stance please be cautious. There are some class traders if you are new and want to follow people. People that post inplay like keith, frode and me(rarely). We dont shy away from it when it loses, you can also see my spreadsheets and screenshots of the trades.
Please just start focusing on working on your own thing. Im adamant its the best way to go. I dont need to worry about what others trade and dont follow but i do take a strict stance when people have influence on others and then shy away inplay and then based on the results will decide if it was or wasnt a trade.
YOUR own strategy, YOUR own trades = YOUR own profit!
Away to do a post that i think will help a people part of the journey doc iv been writing. Let me know if you want something covered quickly.
-
I really want to stress the importance of mastering one thing at a time. How many of you are either testing or trading more than 1 strategy right now? Iv been there your making it ten times harder for yourself. I know your eager to find a portfolio and have games to trade every single day. But we are in this to find consistent profitable games/strats to trade.
Look around at the pros they are doing 1-2 strats but mainly rely on 1 main strategy. For me thats LCS/LTD both of which revolve around 1 key thing late goals. Im not saying thats all you can trade im just saying start to focus on what you can improve on. If you think i got here from luck of finding something good from all the rubbish i was trading your wrong. I stopped everything else and worked on my 2nd half entry. I took a bout 2 month before i was consistent. It took 2 months to tweak how i traded them.
But by just taking 2 months to tweak and improve 1 thing, iv now got a strategy thats consistent month on month. People are too eager to get going. I spoke to a member who is reverting back to a smaller bank because he wants to get his monthly bank growth consistent. Thats the perfect attitude.
Look at the fhg filter we are building its taken what 1 week to get 1 round of data, now we are already a few games worth on the next batch of games. Things snowball in trading. You start small, find something that works and then make it consistent. That £100 bank grows month on month. Stop chasing. You wouldnt chase a loss, so stop chasing a bigger bank they are the same problem.
Im showing via the fhg project that just working on one thing works. Stop focusing on getting things done quick. Slow and steady. Trading aint going away. Your not missing out. And it wont take long. By focusing on one strategy your going to become a better trader faster. Those that test multiple things all at once are the ones still plodding along with small banks hoping a lightbulb moment comes. Its hard on a forum to learn because you see other traders making profits or losses via different things. STOP! Focus on your own stuff!
Your all paper trading this fhg filter or some are doing their own version, apply that mindset to the rest of your trading. Put the hard graft in now tracking these games, then once its good to go start snowballing. Scary what a bank size you will get after just one year with 1 solid strategy. Im now full time because of that exact approach. Im still only using 1 main strategy, LATE GOALS.
-
@sam-maccuaig also just saw you have serie b as a league on the filter, only top leagues in the nations i posted should be used apart from the championship in england. Just double check you have the same leagues i did them deliberately because they will allow for decent liquidity for us to be matched.
-
@darri great thanks mate!
-
set the scope to 5, for me last 5 games home/away respectively gives true current form. You can put it to 10 but for me this adds a bit of doubt as teams go through patches within the season and i want the data im getting in at to be reflective of it
-
any idea why the czech and spain games aren't showing up on my filter? It's not the league so who knows...
-
@Darri Thanks for showing how you buold up a filter and strategy its invaluable.
-
@darri This is pure gold, Darri. I get a lot of food for thought from your posts here. Thanks a lot and keep 'em coming
-
Had someone ask me about the amount i trade. I have spoke in the past about this and im going to keep posting topics up as we go which show how i trade etc. I normally add all my posts i think add value for people wanting to learn this style of trading and thinking. For this post its just personal preference so it will be different for everyone.
I find that im an opportunistic trader and aim to get involved only when the opportunity presents itself. You see others active every single day trading (day traders) i respect there attitude especially the ones at this for years. But for me trading is all about the freedom. Looking through this blog you would see me change from trading everyday to finding the right trades. Iv improved my match selection, my understanding of price and how to act on these.
I do realise my trading is seen as more risky, but understand im not going in these blind iv tested it from loads of mistakes and working on it over the last year and a bit. Its not as if im getting in with 4 mins to go im still managing risk responsibly.
What are the advantages? I only get involved when a game matches everything. There is no perfect trade but as traders we can pursue it. Because of the amount of games that do end up qualifying my time in the markets is substantially less than most. Im not staring at the screen waiting for the next trade. When a game qualifies im all about making as much potential profit as i can. While it looks like im being timid when the trade comes im making sure im in place to jump on. My prices i enter and potential profit makes it so i only really need 2-3 a week to be making substantial gains every month. It frees up time for fam, friends and anything else. It also allows me time to test other strats. Right now im very keen to add some set and forget small builders. I dont want to add screen time, if i can find something more automatic/run in background to compliment my opportune style would be fantastic. Hence me building a FHG filter for everyone to show its possible. You get most of the match to decide to enter. i find each half is different so mine is based purely on 2nd half action but entering late you get the full overview of a game. Which can only lead to better decisions.
The cons? Because of the amount of games i can go a couple of days of red. In the early days that used to play on my mind. This is why people prefer to always have trades. They always want to see growth. So force ably scattergun approach to get back to green/profit. This is why my approach wont work for a lot of people. The time of the match will scare people. It sounds silly to some because they see most traders entering at HT for LTD/LCS trades. What i always harp on about is profit per trade. Whilst grinding is seen as a traders safety net its also holding back how much you could be making per trade. You see loads of goals before you enter. This is frustrating, games dont qualify all the time and just as your about to enter. It still annoys me too. But your picking the correct games.
Whilst it might not be for everyone its certainly been an eye opener for me and lightbulb moment in my bank. Remember this forum goes through trends all the time. Even the pros jump on bandwagons for whats working at that time. Stick to what your good at forget everyone else. Even if you dont agree with my style all the factors that go into me choosing a game or finding selections remains consistent with every single strategy or style.
I hope these posts arent boring, i hope they have some parts that can help you or stuff you can relate too. Forget all the noise you hear online and start to find things that work. PROVEN things not something thats not been tested. One of the things iv struggled with past year is people taking what i say and trying to claim it for themselves. I put a decent amount of thought to make these posts. So when i post something and then someone just posts the same thing but rewords it for their own use to sell makes me annoyed of this industry. I know a bit ranty here but it annoying hence why i want to start this podcast. Make sure people know who is actually making these guides and writing helpful posts. Ill be promoting everything back to btc on the podcast in a bid to make people come here and see the truth to what works thre isnt many places in the betting industry like this place.
If you have spotted what im talking about via people copying my stuff then you know. End of day as long as people are seeing it and its helping more people the better, but there is a slight annoyance that given the effort i put into blogs like this people just abusing it for their own gain. Thanks for the support shown by most especially more recently. I look forward to posting trades again. Really excited by the BTC project iv got going on. The fhgs are off to a good start 2/2 so all these things i do are helping whoever puts time to read these. if your someone who read all of this thank you i appreciate it!
-
@sam-maccuaig france, germany, spain and italy id maybe add their 2nd div. You will still get easy liquidity in the popular markets such as match odds and goal markets. FHG is typically avoided by the big bank pros so, for traders like us with smaller banks we tend to see less money available for us to get our bet matched. So for FHG stick to the most popular leagues.
-
@darri perfect thanks, do you focus only on the top leagues or minor as well?
-
@sam-maccuaig hey mate, these are the leagues i prefer to trade. You get good liquidity and are easy to find info on:
australia, belguim, china, croatia, czech, denmark, england/championship too, france, germany, italy, japan, holland, norway, poland, portugal, scotland, serbia, slovakia, slovenia, south korea, spain, sweden, switz, turkey, usa
-
@darri what leagues are on your list to avoid? Is there a post somewhere with reccomendations?
-
@sam-maccuaig agreed!!! For a beginner like me this is priceless.
-
@darri this is fantastic thank you!
-
So the sun decided to pop up for its once a year visit to scotland yesterday so only just able to update the results this morning. I know a few of you copied the filter so we should have the exact same games on the spreadsheet.
Go have a look at the spreadsheet for your own data there are 109 games to look at. Im just going to outline what i think is the most logical step next.
Results:
What i think i want to say first is i wanted to show you how competitive the markets are priced. This is exactly how they are priced pre match. You very rarely get value from the off. At 66.1% your break even before commission etc is odds of 1.51. This is what everyone posts up saying to get in on. This is the sole reason people are giving up on the fhg market. They dont track for long enough and dont try to double down on what works.
We had 7 as the base stat for filtering games. That means 70% of games historically had a fhg. This shows in our strike rate. It was within the 70% range. So to find an edge we need to be beating these minimum odds. Without thinking about the actual trades we know 1.51 is minimum break even. So anything above and we could be in profit.
So if your familiar with spreadsheets you can use the filter bar at the top left to narrow down on each column. So to start with i checked if changing the minimum stat for the filter was better at 8 then at 9. Both showed a higher win rate.
With a stat of +8 = strike rate of 71%
with stat of +9 = strike rate of 76%Here is where we have a sample size of 63 games and only 26 games respectively. We cannot therefore say which performs better long term. So we will have to include both into the next and final batch of games.
Time difference didnt help either. In fact both the 8 and 9 stat produced 65% and 64% strike rate of games which if entered after 15 mins. Now obviously we havent found out what odds where on offer.
And with odds in mind this leads me to my final point of the results. Whenever i start a strategy test, i want to know if the broad overview of the strategy has a good potential. I havent targetted certain odds i dont care yet for that. I now know what a good base is for a strategy so any changes i make going forward i can now compare it to see if i have improved it. The whole point of data collecting right there!!
So in conclusion we have found the base stat needs to be changed from 7 to 8. We know our minimum odds right now is 1.51, something we def need to improve on. Not many games start 1.51 or below.
So whats next. The hardest thing with fhg strategies is the motivation. No team needs to win the first half. We have very little in play stats or game time to watch. So using both of those it makes it very hard to judge if odds are presenting value. So to counter that what we need to look for is more emphasis that the home team comes out firing from past trends. To do that iv setup this as the new filter going forward:
2 games on it today, ill leave the spreadsheet up overnight but from monday morning that will be replaced with a fresh ones able to track this. We wont be changing the layout of the sheet. If after 100 games we see and increase in strike rate, then we can start pumping money into this thing and have a working strategy for all members to just plug in and play. I stand by that trading is far simpler than people make it sound. I probably am guilty of that. But this right here is the simple side to trading. Its why im keen for others to see paper trading is huge. Using the filter and keeping it simple is the only way to go. Look around the forum people have some of the most detailed filters iv ever seen. I always have the notion that if btc was to stop for any reason i could still do these manually. Im always thinking long term this is my business after all.
-
Hey guys! Taking the break from trading this few days and just being a fan watching is a nice change of pace. I think the approach iv had to trading this month has been so focused and its nice just to take a step back. With a nice 17% to leveraged bank and 70% bank growth there is zero need to be active. Further to that the newer leagues starting and with a cloud over how much of an affect no crowds are having is something im monitoring for next months trading.
The time off has allowed me to start testing a few ideas. I think once you get to a stage of trading it becomes boring and a tad tedious. The learning phase is exciting. I think learning new sports and new strategies ignites that back into traders.
After todays games ill have 100 games worth up on the fhg. Please remember the whole point of the project is just to show how we go from idea to actual strategy. I think btc have in the wings something that will be covering this in more detail. But i like the fact we have a live example here, plus once we get the finished product we can all use it to make some profits. I think my plan will be to have a strict rule set for it so anyone can pick it up and use it. After these batch of games, ill talk about the next set of criteria to add.
I hope people who have followed along have seen how im recording and why each thing paper traded makes sense. the reason iv not added the full set of stats to look for or odds yet is to show a simple yet effective roadmap to building a strategy using both the stats software and how to paper trade correctly.
Also hopefully in time you will see a new channel emerge online. Im starting a podcast. Its going to focus on all aspects of trading. I prefer that medium to long blog posts. Ill still write these up but could be a better way to talk and actually discuss. Let me know if there are topics you would like talked about. Im also very keen to get people on it, please suggest names or if you would like to part of it i am looking for a co host. Already have 2 confirmed people to come on it.
Thanks for the support already shown i have been a tad distracted and havent yet posted my selection process yet but i promise itll be written up sometime this weekend.
