The road to full time
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Hi Sam you are exiting a SHG trade on 75 mins?
So are you looking for early goals in this SHF filter?
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@Darri bit of a question re strike rate vs value. I’m currently trading an SHG filter based on your FHG settings that is proving profitable trading every game assuming I research before and exit at 75mins to limit losses. I want to refine this and focus more on trading less and finding value, but won’t only taking higher odds bring your strike rate down? If the overall strike rate is based on everything the filter pops up how would you recommend refining it down? Hope that makes sense
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I have been wanting to dive into a little more of the psychology of trading and being sitting waiting for the right moment on this thread. While a lot of people think mastering the process of placing a trade is all important i think from experience mindset has the biggest impact. Id like to talk more about this over time. Not so much on a broad scale but how iv linked what others in the industry and more so how others talk about mindset. So please if this has been spoken about before dont call me out and claim im copying, there are loads of these type of topics but that makes it hard for those to find what works for them. So for me when i write a post its whats worked for me, its my personal thread, if iv taken things on board from what others have said then even better because that means others have access to it too.
Pain=Growth
One of the reason i want to talk about this right now is because iv had a bad run recently. In the early days i would chase that back, either by being bullish and stake far too high or gradually increase stakes to lie to myself that im in the process of chasing. Banks come and go during this stage. For me this stage lasted far too long. I almost gave up on trading not because of the challenge but financially i crippled myself over relying on trading/gambling as an income. Running before you can walk concept. This cripples your money and your emotions. I mentally almost lost it. Instead of learning why i was losing i was so emotional about a loss i was in a bubble that i felt i cant be wrong again, then again, then again. Vicious cycle after another.
Lets relate it to this run iv just been on. Losing 3-4 games in a row now knowing you need 2-3 good trades to get that back. This last sentence is exactly why people lose. Winning it back. Its false. Instead of just going back to the same process you have had success with for a long time before this bad run you have this notion ill go back to that once iv won this amount back first. Martin talked about it on the bankroll podcast albeit a different topic but its the same mindset. Ill trade correctly when i get to that position. Its funny how many times i said that and then had to start all over again with a new bank. Imagine you have that mindset when you have £10k/£20k?! Why not learn to deal with losses at £100 and then have the right approach for when you get that amount or even rely on trading as an income.
Im no angel yet either tho. Infact i believe the reason i went on a bad run recently is down to this next reason, over-trading. Over-trading is a direct link to chasing. Instead of narrowing down your selections the way i talked about with PRE-INPLAY-PRICE you begin easing a little of each just to get that trade to qualify.
So how have i worked on this to make sure i can identify when its happening and how to change going forward?
Review! Tracking your trades is the single most important thing i did. Its so boring and tedious! BUT 2 quick reasons. One it gives you confidence to look back at the success of your previous approach, knowing its long term profitable even with a losing run cant be underestimated. Two, you can reflect on that losing run and see if there was any differences or mistakes you made in comparison to the other games previously. Even a quick glance at mine shows even tho this isnt my historical sheet its only a month old its a big contrast of amount of trades compared to previous. These little patterns should be red flags.
Not just track but actually REVIEW your day. Was it variance or were you losing it mentally. I had that bad run going into a weekend, if this was during a normal season id be heading into the busiest time of the week with the mindset that iv had a stinker of a week and need to make up for it. Never do this. In fact start to maybe go beyond the extreme of the amount of research i or others tell yo to do. Revert back to a single strategy you know has worked. Rebuild that confidence. Its been a good feeling having a green day today even if it was one trade. Now while im not as emotionally invested as i was at a beginner stage it still works for me just to feel good about what im talking about works. So go back to what worked. Are you filtering games down the same or making excuses to include it etc. If you win 1-2 for the day stop take it and feel good about it.
Using the FORUM at a busy time or when you have no trades to look for can be both useful and negative. How many times have you had no active trades had btc up and seen someone post a trade. Maybe they have won there last 2-3 and there is a sense of hype they might be right again. Are we missing out if we dot trade that? NO! Work on your own stuff. Unless you can justify why you are going to follow that persons trade. I made a post about that a while back which can be found in the doc sheet at top of this thread. Its even more important to watch this when you have had a few losses. FOMO then encourages chasing. Ill discuss FOMO at a later date its too big a topic. If your easily influenced by the forum trades posted it maybe a good idea to log off until your own trade becomes active. You hear people say they missed out or the trade they are waiting to enter someone else has just entered earlier and now you feel like your being silly waiting for a better price. Sometimes forums can mentally make you want to be the one who makes people the money or posts the booms! Stop, think about yourself be a tad selfish and work on your own stuff. Once your then happy with your own strategies then you wont be negatively impacted on by others posts. If you think the pros are just trading every game posted up by members and feel like they are missing out your mistaken. However please bear in mind im only saying that is what i did, i was easily influenced, if you can remain calm and not jump on then of course the forum is a fantastic place.
A final note, when someone posts saying why that trade maybe shouldnt have been a trade, while it may hurt to hear think about that were they justified? If you were on looking at someone doing the exact same trade would you also say the same? Maybe there are online trolls that will just dig at every trade, sometimes i may be a bit loud after a loss, but its the losses that make us grow and its after a loss we find out how we will react. Its like everything in life its during the bad times we find out what type of person we truly are. Are we going to sit and find a way to change or are we just constantly fighting and trying to claw it back without learning.
This is a post i wanted to do because iv had a few losses recently and iv seen people go through the same bad run but fall into a vicious cycle instead of stopping and then thinking how can i get better and stop myself from chasing, which is why i traded far less games and reverted back to what was working before the bad run. Hopefully there is something in this that can resonate with someone. I like this side of trading discussion. Please remember this isnt just about me posting id love for a bit of debate/discussion around what helps traders. We are all different and certain things will help make us tick. Im all about trying to make sure im on my A game when im sat at the screen. We will make better decisions when we are in that zone, almost every profession is the same.
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Despite it being a weekend, very very quiet today in terms of amount of games. Only had 5 games to look at overall and only 1 game qualified. Stoke vs Brentford too good an opportunity not to get involved based on price. FHGs are for me far more set and forget. Find a strike rate and then set an odds range that is better priced than it. I dont do many of this system type trading but FHGs are a nice fit for it because its hard to monitor the inplay anyway.Another 2 FHGs for the FHG project added to the sheet. Iv ruled out a couple of games for tomorrow, in these top six split leagues im really being selective.
A good start to the weekend, and nip back at whats been a bit of a poor month. Will likely get more potential trades come through once the summer leagues has started to ping on the filters. Its good to have them back!
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Been noticing people are overusing motivation. In fact its driving them against there normal day to day strategies. They are just looking at flashscores instead of their own filter and just seeing if teams have something to play for. From personal experience that didnt work for me. What iv found works is only trade what you have been using throughout the season/years of trading. So example would be today stoke vs brentford. Brentford want to win for automatic promotion. There will have been loads of traders just jumping to get on that purely for motivational factors.
BUT was it even on your filters? If this was midseason would that still have qualified? It wasnt on my filter. Stokes home form has been good unreal at home last 10 games, only losing 2 games!!
Dont just blindly use motivation, only use it on the games that would normally come up on your filters. Its just an additional factor to help decide if its a good value trade for you to take inplay. It is a big factor but dont just brandish it blindly on games. Use it to compliment or remove the bad ones from your list. Especially late season games.
Remember its all pre-inplay-price that makes a complete trade, not just one individually. Trading plans work best for this. if a game doesnt hit all the points you write down ditch and move on. If a game comes on the sheet it fits pre match stats, is there then motivation, check inplay stats back up my pre match stats/hypothesis, then check all the key players are on the pitch so my trade has best possible chance of winning if that is then met then its just price.
Seems tiring and long winded, but takes 2 minutes, 2 minutes to turn a potential trade into a good one or to avoid a loser. If your bothering to put money into the market anyway are you begrudging yourself 2 minutes to double check?
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Added a couple of new sheets to the results page. I aim to once i reach my personal bank/full time bank just make this have all my results on it. Right now especially after a busy day was such a pain going between sheets. So want this to be the main one which will include my outright trades, cricket and my current FHGs. Been trying to test an inplay scanner that someone posted the other day, will give it a test over the weekend see if its reliable. I still prefer the eye test, but cant harm to have that up too and just reaffirm your opinion.
aus league, irish league, mls, japan, korea, scandinavia its good to see these games popping up on flashscores. Huge fan in both my trading years and betting years. Loads of goals and it might be psychological but i find it easier to read these games. Helps that its so open even if your opinion is wrong you can still sneak a goal. The stats for these leagues are fantastic for my style of trading. Often too the markets get these so wrong in setting prices, because less people care about them. Loads of value.
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@matt-wood said in The road to full time:
another winner for the 1HG.
Been a good start for the data collecting. None for friday, see if any qualify over the weekend once the stats have been updated.
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Couple of stinking days recently ill be trying to be more narrow over the weekend and make sure i pick it back up.I regret the sociedad game, i felt as if both teams wanted to win on entry but after the drinks break sociedad settled for a draw. I would probably not enter the LTD part of the trade for this game if i had another chance.
Stabaek and Mura were good potential trades in my book. Stats back that up, inplay action was cracking. Mura i felt was probably my best potential game for a big winner. Happily look to trade these games again.
Varsberg and xamax having watched these games from the 2nd half onwards i felt comfortable getting on both. Xamax game had a red card just minutes after i entered. I didnt post to exit but if this was my own personal bank id have exited. In future ill make sure thats highlighted in the posted trade. varsberg was a good trade, dont care if people think late goals is lucky, iv a history of data that suggests it works.
Please please bare in mind the prices and times im getting in at. There are loads of other traders posting high strike rate/win rate strategies just getting small but consistent returns, that works perfectly but for me im a value bettor/trader with a different approach to risk/reward. For the LTD its trading out for LCS im letting it run full way. Like you can see with the varsberg game if we can 1-2 wins in a row we cut away most of the losses. If you want high strike rates im not the guy to follow. Focus less on the day to day p/l and more on how we do in the next 5 trades. Value will edge on our side in the long run.
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Just seen the result mate, been class so far surely itll take a dip at some point, all at good times all winning. Only 10 games though, cue a big streak of losses.
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another winner for the FHG filter Darri.
Looks like it defo worth a paper trial/small stake trail now to see what profits would look like in real terms when you look at the odds etc
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@mull happily mate, its [email protected], excuse the celtic reference
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@darri Only just catching up with this brilliant blog for insights, knowledge and contribution from other members. I dont know if anyone has mentioned. The stats software updates on Tuesday and i think Friday. It was mentioned in the General chat recently. I dont know if its a bug or just the software itself.
I have never traded cricket but that was the plan before covid. I have loads of data from the T20 leagues from around the world i could send you. Just drop your email in a DM if you would like me to send it over. -
THIS IS GREAT Darri thanks for being honest with all you are doing so traders can see what it is like to be a trader with winners and losing trades. With winning days and losing days. In the long run the aim is for profit and I am sure if you continue this a lot of people will really benefit from this blog.
So well done you mate!
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@cyril-reaney thanks! yeah i agree, it does, for me though and my strategy im just looking for a goal rather than a certain result. So if a league is still open then teams want it more. I agree with you tho, i do prefer midseason. In fact summer leagues are coming back now. none matched my filter yet but 3 more games and they then qualify. Once they do we will see stats and current form stay far more true
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@darri
taking keen interest in your blog and totally admire you commitment and honesty.Dont see many games myself and more interested in horse racing but I feel and (it's more a hunch than anything stats based)that the last 7 r 8 games in competitive leagues EG premiership can throw up strange/unexpected results results.Anyway keep up the good work -
Posted on the football thread about not worrying about individual days. Losses are part of any traders process, maybe not for scalpers etc, but if your reliance is on swings based off goals there is going to be some variance. Iv had loads of losing days, but i have more winnings ones and they typically are bigger than my losing ones. Doesnt take a degree to work out over the long term thats profit.Im happy with all my trades in the championship today, ill admit the chelsea game was maybe one to avoid, but as you can see being a bit bullish on chelsea was wrong and ill need to make sure i work harder to find the next trade to make up for a silly trade.
Keeping the fhg filter running, trying to make sure i check in advance so i can post them up on the sheet for people to see the games im ruling out. So far so good.
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@gary-brown for the challenge its now £148
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thanks Darri this is great.
so what is the bank on now mate?
