The road to full time
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Thanks @Darri , that didn’t take long 2-1 Sevilla -
based on how the game has gone i will be lcs/ltd man utd vs sevilla 1-1/ 72 mins
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@andrew-wooding we are building the fhg project together, it just started as one input in the stats software, we then tracked that data, sorry if you missed that stage, but we did 100 games and found that it wasnt a very tight selection process, still 72-74% strike rate. So we saw that home teams scored more and therefore used the data there to guide us to focus on a home team bias on the filter. So now we are at the stage of doing that right now with this batch. Already high 80s for the strike rate massive difference.
The whole aim is to show people to stop assuming how to trade certain strategies and start letting data dictate what you do. So we have no strategy right now just collecting data and after 100 games are recorded we will then know what to do next. This way we get a proper long term filter and strategy born purely from data. Im not telling people how to trade them just letting the data do this.
Just a nice side project to go along with for the blog, be great if it becomes a solid portfolio strategy for everyone. No hiding anything or misleading just a simple filter and how we have improved it into something. Probably should have kept the old data to show the steps but most of the people following will back up the previous testing and i think it should still be on this blog somewhere if you scroll down to see the transformation and initial idea.
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@darri Gotcha. Sorry if my question was a bit ambiguous. I thought there might be 2 FHG starts being talked about.. but it’s not, it’s just the one (testing stage), which you can adapt for SHG’s. Got it. Thank you.
So I guess when testing is complete, and assuming you are comfortable with everything, you’re planning to disclose the methodology?
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@andrew-wooding hey mate the SHG filter is just the alternative to the FHG project filter. Its just swapping the H1 to H2 in the stats software of the different stats. The SHG filter has been tested. The FHG was the original idea, however i said it could also be used as a 2nd half goal filter also. So the FHG filter is totally different.
So to answer there is only 2 strategies here, the SHG using the alternative filter (H2)and then the FHG project (H1) that we are still testing nothing else. So one filter for 2nd half goals and the other for first half goals.
Hope that helps. I may not be reading your question right as im not sure i quite get what you mean. I hope iv answered correctly here
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@darri can I ask mate (sorry if this is already widely known). Are these FHG’s different to the bank builder strategy already out there?
You have a strat where the 4 filters used for FHG’s are also used for SHG’s.
Are these 2 separate FHG strats ? If so I guess With the new one you haven’t even told folks how to administer the trade yet right? -
@darri Can't speak for anyone else but I've not even considered trading these yet.
I'm finding it interesting how you go about developing and testing a strategy and the steps you go through before even deciding whether or not to proceed.
Been guilty in the past of just diving in without any thought
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PLEASE do not be trading these FHGs yet, they are looking rather good at present but they are at your own risk. I will be minimum staking and making sure its profitable in the next batch. This batch is still very much test mode, we are just checking that the changes we made to the filter are an improvement to the last batch. The 2 phases have been to see how what we input affects the market as a whole so we get an idea of what stats impact FHGs more. So far it looks like we have nailed that. The next batch will 100% be the most important as odds and minimum stakes will be introduced. Just seen the rosenborg game came in and seen the strike rate and thought some might be jumping the gun and might start putting money to it too early, its your own risk im not saying these are done yet.
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@matt-wood max of 2 goals in the first half. There just cannot have been a goal in the 2nd half yet and also not been more than 2 goals before you enter the trade. So 0-0/0-1/1-0/2-0/0-2/1-1 all count anything more and move onto the next. So when i say under 2.5 i meaning there cant have been 3 or more. However like i said these got tested with every score im just saying what i would do with the filter and strategy to make it a more efficient bank builder. hope that helps
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@matt-wood said in The road to full time:
@eamonn-hogan said in The road to full time:
@matt-wood said in The road to full time:
@darri said in The road to full time:
just to clarify because it looks like the first game might become a qualifier only enter if there has been no goal in the 2nd half. So if its 0-0 ht but then a goal is scored on 50 mins do not enter. The filter is set to only have at least 1 more goal in the 2nd half. As long as the first half hasnt had more than 3 goals then i would enter.
so quick rules:
only enter if no 2nd half goal has been scored
only games with less than 2.5 goals are a qualifierthe rest ill leave upto you guys, its just a filter
Evening Darri, all good I hope.
I don't mean to be a d**k or anything but I am confused a little here. Your advice above says only enter if there hasnt been more than 3 goals in the first half.
After it says less than 2.5 in the first half.
What about exactly 3?
Thanks in advance, keep up the excellent work
Max of 2 goals in first half mate
Cheers
Come on the mighty seville
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@eamonn-hogan said in The road to full time:
@matt-wood said in The road to full time:
@darri said in The road to full time:
just to clarify because it looks like the first game might become a qualifier only enter if there has been no goal in the 2nd half. So if its 0-0 ht but then a goal is scored on 50 mins do not enter. The filter is set to only have at least 1 more goal in the 2nd half. As long as the first half hasnt had more than 3 goals then i would enter.
so quick rules:
only enter if no 2nd half goal has been scored
only games with less than 2.5 goals are a qualifierthe rest ill leave upto you guys, its just a filter
Evening Darri, all good I hope.
I don't mean to be a d**k or anything but I am confused a little here. Your advice above says only enter if there hasnt been more than 3 goals in the first half.
After it says less than 2.5 in the first half.
What about exactly 3?
Thanks in advance, keep up the excellent work
Max of 2 goals in first half mate
Cheers
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@matt-wood said in The road to full time:
@darri said in The road to full time:
just to clarify because it looks like the first game might become a qualifier only enter if there has been no goal in the 2nd half. So if its 0-0 ht but then a goal is scored on 50 mins do not enter. The filter is set to only have at least 1 more goal in the 2nd half. As long as the first half hasnt had more than 3 goals then i would enter.
so quick rules:
only enter if no 2nd half goal has been scored
only games with less than 2.5 goals are a qualifierthe rest ill leave upto you guys, its just a filter
Evening Darri, all good I hope.
I don't mean to be a d**k or anything but I am confused a little here. Your advice above says only enter if there hasnt been more than 3 goals in the first half.
After it says less than 2.5 in the first half.
What about exactly 3?
Thanks in advance, keep up the excellent work
Max of 2 goals in first half mate
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@darri said in The road to full time:
just to clarify because it looks like the first game might become a qualifier only enter if there has been no goal in the 2nd half. So if its 0-0 ht but then a goal is scored on 50 mins do not enter. The filter is set to only have at least 1 more goal in the 2nd half. As long as the first half hasnt had more than 3 goals then i would enter.
so quick rules:
only enter if no 2nd half goal has been scored
only games with less than 2.5 goals are a qualifierthe rest ill leave upto you guys, its just a filter
Evening Darri, all good I hope.
I don't mean to be a d**k or anything but I am confused a little here. Your advice above says only enter if there hasnt been more than 3 goals in the first half.
After it says less than 2.5 in the first half.
What about exactly 3?
Thanks in advance, keep up the excellent work
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@darri thank you for providing this space mate. I agree on the football forum, but you don’t want to say owt’ because then yes your the negative one. It’s a bit lads down the pub sometimes which is a shame. I get the feeling that most folks on here are like me, in that they are looking for authenticity and sincerity rather than banter and ‘golden secret sauce’. You can get sold that crap anywhere. Keep doing your thing mate, and I for one will listen and contribute where I can.
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just reading the comments on the football thread makes me so happy to have moved all my stuff onto here! cannot be dealing with the back and forth pickering between egos or opinions. Use this forum to learn or to share trades. If your going to be going against an opinion back it up with stats or data. The one thing im trying to do is take the forum less serious, if someone goes against your opinion they are entitled to but there is a difference between constructive criticism that is aided by stats and facts rather than your assumptions. You also have to be careful not to alienate someone just because they think differently, there can be a bit of a popularity contest on that thread and if you go against one you seem to go against them all, i hate that side of things. No one seems to want to moderate the posts so its never going to change. Its the one issue every forum has and im glad iv found a little area of it i can just go about my own stuff and have what seems to be decent people reading and posting on it. Thanks guys!
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bit late in posting this today, had a bit of a lie in this morning
Trading watchlist:LCS/LTD
hammarby vs elfsborg 0-0/0-1/1-0
rosenborg vs aalesund 0-0/0-1/1-1
mjallby vs malmo 0-0/0-1/1-0/1-1
sevilla vs man utd 0-0/1-0/0-1
zaragoza vs elche 0-0/0-12nd half filter
daegu vs incheon
rosenborg vs aalesundadded a few games there that arent from the filters, lets see if we can finish the week as strongly as the weeks gone so far
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So been a cracking couple of days both champs league games providing late goals. The last few days have clearly shown why pre match research is key, ill explain below.atalanta vs psg: before the match i had the obvious key players highlighted neymar and mbappe. Psg were knocking at the door all game, but i stuck to my rules and waited to see if mbappe would come on. He did and then i entered. 2 late goals from psg. Cracking trade.
man city vs lyon: no aguero but jesus, debruyne, sterling and mahrez all contributing to citys season. De bruyne moved centrally and started to dictate, mahrez also coming on. But what you will see is my trade was actually when dembele came on. The former celtic player is lyons top scorer by a mile with every key player on the pitch i then entered. Went against the team i expected to score but we take it. Never managed to get my LTD portion on but thats the benefit of my trading i have the lcs locking in the profit.
This just a continuation of key player research before games. We had this in the wolves game also. Do the small 5 minute research of key players before a game if you dont believe it works surely im presenting a good case for it to be included.
The FHG was an after timed trade i was going to post it then went in as i was typing, generally frowned upon to post after the trade has been won. After the dodgy start to july we have slowly regained momentum and building the bank again.
To the guys that mentioned cutting back and reverting to simpler trades, this is exactly what i did, just a couple of good trades regains the faith and confidence. Which for those that have been in trading a while know the mental aspect is the key. When you are confident you follow through with your trades. Easy to say after a good couple of weeks but the proof is in the long game. This beginner bank journey is back on track and could be a big month for it.
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@lee-woodman @Stuart-Capstick cheers guys! im glad i kept this blog going now and its great to hear that you guys dont mind reading it
especially after i had a few negative comments earlier and almost stopped this is fantastic to hear -
@matt-wood said in The road to full time:
@darri said in The road to full time:
LCS/LTD man city vs lyon 1-1, will lcs now and look to see if it stays this lively then ltd
No rush, but in this Man City game would cash out now its 1-2 or let the LTD run?
Guess at 1-3 let it run lol
