The road to full time
-
@waz with a LTD strategy it can be used in so many ways. We have examples in the community, we had a project chris was using with 2 evenly matched sides, the daily email and obviously keiths picks. I have had success copying those selections but for me on a personal preference i like to find my own approach, like i said in my last post not everyone trades the same and trader personalities come into play. Keith said in one of the trading documents he gave to martin about keeping trading simple, so many of us try to complicate it. What ill do is give you a basic outline of how i interpret the use of LTD in my trading, this isnt the only way to use it but im consistent with it.
Pre match stats im looking for there to be clearer favourite in the match, not so much a massive odds on because we are trying to hunt for value but if the fav is 1.5 or higher pre match 2nd half the draw odds should drop faster. Comparison % first to score we are looking for a fav to score first for the best exit price. We also want to know if the fav goes behind can we expect a comeback. example would be city and arsenal are both vulnerable if they go a goal behind against weaker teams. Using the stats software in relation to your 0-0 approach im looking for full time 0-0 % to be low, also we are checking for the chance of 0.5 to be higher than 75%. Here is were im different to some of the other filters, im not fussed about there being a lot of goals predicted, im only needing 1. Typically when looking for games with high predicted goals its harder to find value. So i dont tend to filter based on predicted goals being high. So stats such as over 1.5/2.5 or average goals being over a certain high number dont bother me as they only hinder the price. This isnt all that i filter but im sure by playing with the stats software you can start to piece together a really nice filter for your shortlist.
Now iv got the filtered games now im looking into team news. Twitter, bbc sport and sky sports will give you all you need to know about team news and what the general atmosphere around each team is. This is also were as i said in the last post knowing your leagues and teams is a bonus. An easy example template of what to look for is for spurs, is kane, ali, son all playing? Use that example with all games. It wont make the trade as im sure llorente for spurs can still score but it changes how your hypothesis of the match will go.
Now we are set, we are confident we have spotted games we can monitor. We add them to the trading watchlist. Now this is when experience and tracking your trades comes in. We want to know when to enter and exit the markets. This can only be done by trading the markets yourself and how comfortable you feel. Some get in at HT, some 15/20 mins, some wait till right at the death. Thats personal preference and there aint no right or wrong way as long as your entry and exit points match up to what your expected strike rate is long term. Following from my post about tracking trades applies to this part so give it a read and apply it to the LTD you will be shocked at how much data can help. From LTD tracking iv created other strategies of the back of just reading my past results. Try it.
My LTD for your example would be forget about the first half, iv watched thousands of matches since iv started to trade, first half only effects my trades on the price you get. I dont care for stats 1st half. In fact the lower the more the draw price will have come down making it easier to lay. What im doing now is watching the first 10-15 mins of 2nd half for action this is if i can view the game, if i cant stream it ill half my stakes and will rely on 2nd half stats from multiple sites. If i can view it, im not necessarily looking for clear cut chances im more looking for is the fav opening up a defence, is the dog sitting back deep with no counter, etc. This is when knowledge of having watched games come into it, youll start to see patterns in games. There aint no guide for this, thats why people who have to write guides tell you stats are the easiest thing to guide you, but if you are good at reading how a game is going youll be better armed than reading inplay stats.
Typically at the 55-60 min market for my games the lay odds of the draw are around 2.3/2.5 this is my initial entry, if the game is end to end and a goal looks imminent ill place full stake, if its steady pressure then ill put half my stake in now and drip lay the rest at pressure points in match. This is where pre match research comes good, finding out how good teams are at set pieces, or if a team is renowned late scorers. Last year norwich scored a high % of goals after the 80th minute now you can imagine the lay odds at 80 mins would be very low. Also my example the other day, kilmarnock play in the scottish premiership a league i follow as im scottish and a massive celtic fan. They have a tall team and are very physical and hence they are good at set pieces, so use these addidtional entries to good use. I like the strategy of half stakes and then dripping the other half as you go. Its fluid and can help limit losses.
Exit points are preference only, i keep my stake in until final whistle i dont have a stop loss. When a goal is scored i trade out if the dog scores, and monitor and get out around 85 mins if fav scores all preference but by tracking your results and gaining experience in markets youll get your own exit points.
After the markets are finished end of the day ill jot them into my spreadsheets and add it to the data gathering. Typically i will look over this every month if its a strategy iv used for a while, every 20-30 trades if its a new strategy. From there you can start to paper trade other approaches. And this is where ill be careful not to repeat what i said in last post, go read it and take what you want from it.
Sorry this is a long answer, but trading is a big topic and tbh it all boils down to personal preference on how you want to trade that market. There aint no golden ticket, so like all traders on here have said practise your entry and exits, then start to track progress p/l, then become consistent with your strategy, then add to it if you wish. Hope this helps. I may have been a typical Caan Berry approach and gone off course and avoided the direct question but thats how i approach the LTD from your example. Remember each match is different be careful blanketing your approach to every game that hits your filter.
The length and depth of how you can trade a strategy is why mastering and improving on a 1 strategy is key, there is far more depth you can go but be basic in your approach first then adapt your changes.
side note congrats on the cricket buddy, thats some nice profits, im not very good at quick scalping in play, so i liked your post on the cricket thread. Trying to get semi automated with that approach using betangel but its time consuming.
-
@darri Keeping things simple, let's say I had a SH LTD strategy, whereby I was only entering the market when the half time score was 0-0, and the draw odds had come down to 2.0.
What areas would you think someone with less experience should focus on to improve the results? I'd love to hear your general thoughts too
-
@waz sure, is there a particular strategy that you would like to discuss? Ill give my opinion on it and see if it matches what your thinking.
-
I genuinely feel like I've had a little bit of an epiphany reading your post. I have never thought about being selective and refining one strategy. I've always gone for a scatter gun approach.
Hope you don't mind me asking, as someone who is genuinely never thought about refinement of a trading strategy, what are the obvious things that one should look to refine? It might sound daft, but to what detail do you have to measure your trades to discover areas of refinement?
-
Will do a weekend summary instead, so will post later tomorrow night
-
My selection process
It will be 2 years of betfair trading for me in october, it got me thinking about how iv changed since then as a trader. Back when I first started I only ever invested banks under £100 and blew a few and it really crippled my enthusiasm to further it. I dont really know what got me back into it, I know I was watching a heck of a lot of youtube videos to distract me from studying for my uni, so maybe it was peter webbs influence that changed it. Since then iv managed grow a steady bank which has allowed me to not have to work alongside uni and do this part time. Now that iv got that reserve bank I wanted to do this challenge in this thread of starting again but with a £1000 starting bank.
So what changed? Personally I think it was the overall more professional attitude I took, I started to track my trades, I read more in depth what traders were posting, I joined BTC, I bought trading software, I wrote trading plans, I really got stuck into it as if it was my actual job. But for me this whole progress has really been down to my trade selections and what I put in the trading plans at start of the day.
For me sticking to what you know is my first main filter. For me in football I stick to what leagues I have good knowledge of. Im a bit of an avid Football Manager fan which really helps get my knowledge of players and teams. There are so many people posting leagues from eastern europe or sunday league level football in countries. I think that kind of trading is pure stats driven and can sometimes leave you feeling like its a blind trade instead of a good working hypothesis, i also feel like it hurt more when the trade went wrong with these ones. I feel having a good handle on leagues is key to improving your trading success.
Following on from that something that has driven me further away from those leagues is im all about scalability. I want to be building a portfolio of working strategies that can be scaled up as my bank grows. Games featuring under 8k are useless to me, not only does it present gaps in the odds, it also means punters and traders are also avoiding it. I find set and forgets are still amply fine for this approach but actively in play trading them are no go. Im aiming to gain experience in trading successfully in those markets so that as I grow the bank, so too can my stakes.
When I first joined BTC even after a bit of experience in trading I was massively over excited about the stats software. I setup filters and thought I would be able to bag profit all day everyday. What I actually did was after a week or 2 I decided to go back to basics. Setting up a filter for 1 strategy. I dont know how many times people will ask but simply by choosing one strategy and mastering it and improving its strike rate will make you a good trader. Thats what I did, once you have a working strategy, paper trade another, then repeat that process. I still only have a few strategies and tbh im quite content to stick to them until the markets start to change. By mastering one strategy you gain experience and knowledge of what your actually looking for in trades and it makes filtering games out much easier.
So there we go 3 keys to what helps me filter selections. I know experienced traders will know all this and some might argue against it but its my own opinion and its what is working for me:
- stick to leagues you know
- develop strategies that are scalable
- Master one strategy, then branch out from there
All 3 of these changes iv made since I was a newbie have made me consistent enough to go part time. As long as I can adapt to market changes and no outside influences affect trading then I can definitely see no reason why I cant scale this into full time. Still a long way to go tho and im by no means perfect or even good at trading but the more experience im getting the more consistent im becoming.
I want to write about another topic which has become probably the most asked subject in trading, not just on here but in youtube comments and in blog posts. Ill probably look to write that a lot better and take my time on it. So will post that at a later date.
This one was just a little (lots of rambling) post about selections. It was on my mind because I had a trading plan today and given its a saturday only featured a few games, and out of that only managed to get on 2 of them. I remember as a newbie being in panic mode when I only had a few and then couldnt trade them so I latched onto games that werent on it instead to make up for it. That simply was not going to work long term. A couple trades a day or even no trades will not halt progress. Its all about protecting the bank and growing it slowly. Unfortunately for me it took me a while to realise that, but it feels good to be able to look back upon it now.
There are a a host of traders who see markets differently its something that should be said in more videos and blog posts. These differences arent represented when you see youtubers selling their strategy or bloggers selling systems. So what works for me might be different for another trader. For me this thread isnt a guide for beginners, Martin and Ryan do a great job on that in the training section of this site. This thread is about what helped me and let others take from it what they want. Hope it isnt too much of a ramble. This thread is more of a chance for me just to post what im thinking about trading at the time. Hope there is something in my posts that others can take and improve upon. I like doing these and the running summary of my trading is really helping me focus on my trades.
-
@darri that’s good to hear, does sound like emotions are being taken out of it buddy.
-
Last minute goal giving us a bit of relief.
Horse racing:
Managed to be more selective with the racing today, there were a few decent handicaps on show and managed to get a couple of really nice trades in. Dutched 1 race which also came good. Still running martins place lays over on betdaq but im classing that as a individual bank as its not my own strategy or picks. Makes it easier to manage and iv seen a nice move in the liquidity to betdaq. That bank might have to be moved over to betfair if we want to add it to main portfolio just running it for a few months first.Tennis:
Actually got into a great position in the nadal vs federer game. Lay of federer after first set and was riding into a healthy green. Normally with tennis iv just taken the profit then run. Felt bullish after how well nadal won the 2nd and decided to back. On hindsight its funny to think i was bullish in this sort of contest. 2 GOATs and there was me thinking it was a big momentum switch. Maybe there was a bit of fomo in this but if i had stuck to the plan i could have been out with a healthy green. Instead i tried to battle and ended up a point loss.Football:
This filter iv got is really producing the goods right now. Albeit im still way too selective with my games. But right now its producing quality over quantity and until that form dips ill continue with this approach. I initially got in with a back of a 2nd half goal @1.50 my go to odds range when im not sure what team will score first. It was a lively game. I started to get the feeling a goal was coming and since it was on my LTD trade plan i went for the LTD @2.3 and then proceeded to drip lay. I managed to get 1.83 average odds. When the goal came i cashed out with the intention to then lay the home side as it was still end to end. Would have doubled my return if the striker had finished his one on one chance at the end but happy with the trade.Its been a great week so far, with the weekend coming up hopefully i can make some sort of profit from it. Some pretty big markets coming up in the next few days so really eager to finish the week well especially with a few of my regular comps this summer coming to an end.
Daily p/l = + 3.6 points
July p/l = + 15.5 points -
@ryan-carruthers 50-50 on whether it was the trading or the events i was watching that was boring. But maybe thats a sign im being less emotional about the trades. Either way im starting to become a heck of a lot more consistent, even on the losing trades its still the same process and discipline.
-
Today was on the verge of being a very boring day, but keeping it simple and getting in and out at good times was key to making a profit.Horse Racing:
Got into trouble from the first trade, my biggest problem does seem to be on the big race meetings or when there is real quality horses on show. Will be more selective tomorrow. I actually made a profit on the supporting meetings today just struggled at newmarket.Football:
Managed to trade 2 games one in china and the other in african nations. China game got in at 30 mins for a 1st half goal, got in with a back at 2.32 and continue the strike rate of this system. African nations game was a 2nd half goal. I reckoned ivory coast would push forward and with the quick wingers of algeria they would pose a threat on the counter and a goal was likely. Got in at odds of 1.50, happy to add more profit to the competition total.As you will see in image at the top i traded the kilmarnock game. I had a keen interest in the 2 scotland teams playing today. Killie went a goal down and having watched the game from start fancied a comeback. Because of the time i got in at the odds were in my favour here. Killie equalised and i got out with a tidy green. I then monitored to see if killie would continue to press or just settle for the away goal. They pressed and i put on a slight LTD at odds of 1.3. Goal came from a corner something they have a great record at in scottish premiership. Favourite trade iv executed in a while.
So overall today ended up well. I was i little rash with the horses but football continues to help tick us along. I like exposing my trades obviously today went well but ill post trades that do not go my way aswell to see if i get any feedback on them. Tennis and cricket were both straight forward markets today so no opportunities for me to get involved. The more boring trading got today the better i traded. Starting to feel good about how im trading now.
Daily p/l = +3.3 points
July p/l = +11.9 points -
@darri nice work!
-
Pretty solid first trading day back after break. Just kept it as simple as i could today. Wasnt too much events overlapping with each other so could safely monitor them all individually which always helps the strike rate more.Cricket:
As i avoided the match yesterday knowing i had a free bet on NZ i was too tempted by the bizarre start they made today. I got caught out when i layed NZ at 1.58, lets be honest, india had altered their battling lineup so surely a modest total like that should have been easy pickings. Sat with a red i heard about jadeja with an average of 70 in england, bats top 5 for his domestic side and has saved india multiple times. Partnered with dhoni, not sure if anyone else saw the stats that they put up on the screen but if he is not out during a chase he has won 47 times and only lost 2 times. Anyway put a lay in on NZ once jadeja had hit double figures. Almost a dream comeback but there was a tight 2 overs before jadeja fell and got out there to remove red and gain some green left a bit more green on india incase but happy with what i got in the end considering. Its also a bit of a confidence boost when you place a trade then richard on the cricket thread does the same thing.Football:
2 games traded, odd vs stabaek was on the filter. Managed to get a good price on the LTD at 2.3, goal came at a good time but since it was first football trade back didnt let it run and just cashed out.
Senegal game was one i picked in the morning trade plan. Was only going to get in if it was 0-0, backed the 0.5 overs. This has been a very healthy competition for me this summer. The markets really are generous with some of the prices in these games.Horse Racing:
2 dutch trades today. Its something iv been working hard to remain disciplined with. Since i started trading this has been a go to for me in the horses. The problem is the consistency to always be watching the markets for it and to respect your limits. Expect a bit of variance from this tho. Also after paper trading martins place lays for a while now im going to start with small stakes 2moro. Seems to be doing well and if i start now maybe i can find my own angle for it to use in time.So good day, i expect to be active in the cricket tomorrow which will be my main focus. I got quite a good response in messages and post about my last post on here about tracking trades. Thanks for those actually reading these, sorry if its not that well written or structured. Its good to be back.
Daily p/l = +4.0 points
July p/l= +8.6 points -
@darri I like this post about tracking trades. I think im a bit like you in that i like the analysis and interpretation of the data as much, if not more, than the pulling the trigger on the trades. Its one reason i got a BOT for some strategies, so theres no messing around or temptation to stake a little higher/lower depending on mood/previous trades etc etc.
I think the tracking is very important as it allows you to review what youre doing and look to tweak things. I find trading is fine margins at times so a simple tweak may improve the risk-reward ratio enough to turn a break even strategy into one that makes you profit. Something as simple as entering the LCS market slightly later in the half might affect things significantly. It also allows you to track other angles within your strategies. For example, i have a filter which looks good for 2H goals but upon analysis it looks really good for FH goals and for some kind of O1.5 strategy. And my FH goals filter has some strong correlations to SH goals (im cautious of correlation/causation here but over 500 results since October then maybe there is something to consider, and certainly its worth monitoring)
I have a summary page for all trades which has the basics - dates/games/HT&FT score/strategy type etc so i can quickly get an overview but then a sheet for each strategy with a bit more detail - results/goal times/significant odds etc. So if my summary shows a bad run on a particular strategy then i can further analyse if its just a bad run or if things need to be adjusted. If its just a bad run then i have more confidence to ride it out
-
No trading for me today or tomorrow. Paper trading the tennis, im fairly happy with my approach to it just want to be sure before committing anymore of bank to it, but so far paper trading seems to be going well.
Football wise there are a few games in comps and leagues i would normally trade but on the football thread seen a few people get caught out in the scandinavian leagues so will watch them tonight. See if that was just a bad week. I love summer football for trading but since iv been off ill just monitor them to get back in the swing of it tonight.
Cricket wise im going to pick the aussie game to trade, i dont like the india match. I actually have a free bet on NZ so ill just watch hoping for an upset.
So cricket world cup, womens world cup, african nations and wimbledon will be over end of the week. All of which iv traded and all have been in profit. But now itll be back to home comforts and the usual markets. Ill be picking up horse racing again to fill that void, and if the paper trades of tennis continue into the lesser events then ill be confident to add that to the daily watchlist. However im not getting carried away, football and cricket are my 2 passions both are still my main focus, ill prioritise them over other markets. I noticed a few post about mastering one sport, i agree, but for me i have my set strategies and as long as i continue to monitor them and tweak when changes happen then i should be able to transfer focus onto side projects.
-
Tracking Your Trades
I think im a bit of a trading geek, it stems from my passion for numbers and data gathering. I wish i had taken this approach with exams. I sometimes feel i get more satisfaction from getting the trade data than from executing the trade itself.
I believe a good system/strategy doesnt need to be tracked, you can use the interface on betfair, it tells you if your in profit and your bank is growing. Since coming to trading iv met a few traders who take the stance of not bothering with tracking trades, they are still in profit and they are happy with how they trade. This doesnt mean they are better or worse traders, not at all. This i think is when trader personality comes into it. I would class myself as a defensive trader, with that comes pros and cons. That comes with experience of being in the markets, and finding that out for yourself. Being defensive doesnt mean i dont back myself far from it, ill still put full stake on my edge, but maybe i limit myself when there is a greater risk reward ratio on offer.
Before i joined BTC 8 months ago now, i only ever tracked p/l of systems, like a summary page: LTD= x/y LCS= x/y. Now this was far too basic, yes i was seeing each month if i had consistency, but i wasnt seeing why, was there a trend in my trading like set scores that was catching me out? These things remained blind, also the reverse was happening ruling things out when actually they were just on a bad patch and were still long term profitable. It was a members post of his trading summary for the month that really got me hooked on this approach.
Since the turn of the year my trading has changed tenfold. I have a working portfolio of strategies, some set and forget, some inplay. Now i track everything that helps when im thinking about a trade. The prices i take, trade out at, time i get in at, match situations etc you get the picture. Now when trades become available im now confident that im of the right mind. Ryan makes it clear on most of his videos what has to happen for this trade to work. Now im fully aware that there is no 100% perfect trade, there really isnt. The quest for some golden ticket aint coming. Consistency, discipline and market knowledge from my opinion is the only way to grow.
I fully understand this full analytical approach aint for everyone, not everyone has same time i do, people are in different life situations. I like the buzz it gives me knowing how things are doing and monitoring them as i progress as a trader.
The key points to tracking your trades are to help monitor your strategies and to remain confident your continuing to grow that bank. Couple of points here, one it will help you to find trends in your trading. Is there a better way to trade this market. Recently i became aware that i should be backing FHG on my filter, something i wouldnt have considered before and have the data now to carry that out with confidence. Secondly tracking your trades is a great confidence boost. You have in front of you what is actually happening with your trading. You can pin point your strengths and weaknesses of trades.
Even starting out i think tracking would help. I think starting out we can get flustered with how much is going on. This approach helps to focus on how you execute trades. I also personally like feeling more professional. There is always links to the stock market with betfair trading. I doubt these large companies are simply ignoring tracking results. Why should i?Bit of a long ramble here, its more because i want to express what im saying, rather than just think it. Also since iv not traded as much this week its a typical time for me to look at the data iv gathered anyway. So it got me thinking about how i am now as a trader to when i first started. Just felt that if i was to start totally blank again that this bit of advice would have sped things up so much. Yes this will be obvious for the regular members, but i know there are some on here that have read this thread who are new. For me Firstly execute trades, follow the members on here get a feel for the markets before you tackle them yourself. Secondly track these trades, get a good sample size then go in as much detail as you want and pick apart your trades and optimise/monitor to see how you progress.
Long read, but as i said i want this thread to highlight advice/thoughts on trading. These are my opinions, others have more experience and takes on trading. But im simply showing how me as part time trader is approaching this and how i believe the little things help make those big decisions smoother and less daunting. Also these posts will show what actually helped me personally, go from losing banks to growing them.
Ill post these sort of topics when they crop up in my trading. Its a massive topic trading and im quite passionate about making it in this industry, thats why i need to post these as family wont want to talk trading, friends only have casual bets and i only trade alone at my pc so no work mates to annoy. I think family and the social side can be another topic later. But i hope iv wrote this ok, and makes sense. Please message me or post here if you want to ask a question. Im no pro but im happy to help and give my opinion and direct you to other trading advice or receive advice as it will only help me grow as a trader.
-
So i got back on saturday and decided just to watch sports on the tv instead of bringing up the old trading software. I noticed on the header of this thread that i wouldnt just be posting results. It got me thinking, along with some of the messages i had received that as i go along with this thread that ill post my thoughts on trading and whats helped/hindered my trading. The results iv had recently have been pretty good, there will still be losing days but its consistency thats the key. Im going to put up a post next about one of the key reasons i remain confident my approaches to trading will remain profitable as i grow my bank. Before i started this thread i had traded with another bank and managed to get it to a safe level for my current status(student) to sustain myself. Now that student status is half way finished i want to be sure that i can with a degree of confidence give this a go. Was it a fluke, was my sample size too small and im going to come crashing down. I cant risk that, that is why i started again with a £1000 bank last month and to do it again will only build that confidence. So along with results, trades and the rest i want to post my thoughts on trading. These additional topics will be boring for some but like i said i think its a lonely profession. Especially for me as my family is massively against betting as its affected some family members. I still do not know how to word what im doing for a part time job to them. So id like to just post randomly on here some thoughts im having and see if anyone wants to discuss them. They will run along with the results.
