The road to full time
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@eamonn-hogan the under 2.5 is for my own personal trades wont be adding them to this beginner bank journey. I think its a a strategy that might drive people to do irrational things and insight bad habits etc, because the low strike rate and runs it will go on. However if like me you have confidence in the history of the strategy and that it will profit long term then by all means use it. I can just see it going on a small losing run and then have people moaning etc that it doesnt work when quite clearly its massively profitable in long term. Profit per trade is far more important for this strat than having a super high strike rate this will have losing runs but the odd win massively counters that and puts us back in profit. I think this is best use for people who understand trading a bit more, and arent just learning etc. Was just a highlight/update post in a personal trading development. For the beginner bank that i post up every day it will still just be LCS and FHG trades just now however i will keep everyone updated on how the strategy is doing long term end of each month.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Looks like the strategy update was well received from others just wanting to show that its good to think outside what everyone else is doing, often youll find that side of the markets is so competitive and edges are much shorter. As you see my strategy is different to most and probably has a big enough edge for me to optimise within. Always trying to show people that there are edges to find and other things than just the historical stats to look for in trading
Onto todays selections:
Only one game today : SHG : orebro vs malmo
Do you not have the norrkopping game on the under 2.5?
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Looks like the strategy update was well received from others just wanting to show that its good to think outside what everyone else is doing, often youll find that side of the markets is so competitive and edges are much shorter. As you see my strategy is different to most and probably has a big enough edge for me to optimise within. Always trying to show people that there are edges to find and other things than just the historical stats to look for in trading
Onto todays selections:
Only one game today : SHG : orebro vs malmo
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I will do an update once the 1.5 and 1.4 both have enough data, and then can go further with the optimising which im looking forward to. But for me this has already got minimum stake capability so lets see what happens, its a nice strategy that can be added to my small but tight trading portfolio. Thats 2 strats added as i count the lcs and ltd as quite close strats.
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@eamonn-hogan feel free to have a look at the results mate see if anything can help you. Remember this isnt a traded strategy its a set and forget so im leaving it in. Im sure someone who trades it inplay might find a good tweak. However the odds range makes it easy for me to just leave it and focus on my main trades.
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This is something I was trying with my under 2.5. If a goal was scored between 0-10 I was backing under 2.5. The amount of time a second goal was scored quick in succession was quite high. In saying that I was doing it with no filter and most leagues. Would be interested in it again.
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Interesting strategy Darri as others have said goes against what we usually look for in terms of strike rate but profitibility and ROI are more important than strike rates anyway.
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Great stuff Darri, this really clicks in my head as it seems counter to what most people would do meaning there is the potential for plenty of value. I am sure it is something that would work for me once have some more experience at trading but I need to build that up first. Will be following with great interest though.
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@martin-walker if there is a goal before 30 min/this may become shorter more like 25 if odds become a huge increase to profits i then lay the over 2.5 and let it run. Its a set and forget style strategy. Its not meant to be as high an earner as my late goal strategy but the odds variations ill be tracking going forward are very encouraging. Yep 1 % liability the strike rate wouldnt allow for anything higher tbh. Like i said this is a more advanced strategy than most will be comfortable with.
@liam-willis the actual initial idea of this strategy was to exit at HT however i got fed up of trading out and i really dislike getting good value and not seeing it out. The results from the testing showed this was the way i think the first time i tested it was last year but this has since been revisited now i have enough time to commit to trading having turned full time. I prefer this way to the strategy because it allows me to continue adding more strats and focus more on the late goals without having to monitor these.
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interesting this darri its similar to an idea i had a while ago and now you have me thinking again lol
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So wait for a goal before 30 mins then lay over 2.5 and let run? If goal after 30 leave game
Are you laying to 1% liability? -
Thanks lads, @Martin-Walker feel free to ask away it will be different to what most are used to. I think its a shame how much high strike rate systems are pushed to traders because it makes them think this is the only way to make money in trading. However they are often the easiest to explain, easiest to trade etc and thats why you see me posting a FHG and SHG filter for new traders to the blog following that same trend, but there are other ways too. Hopefully this is a lightbulb that this trading industry has a lot of other opportunities that are exploitable if you test and try.
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@darri looks really good mate, be good to track something different. Thanks for sharing
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This looks really interesting, the opposite of what most people are looking for with 33% strike rates. I have loads of questions and keep re reading it
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Ok so as promised here is a strategy i have been testing for 2 months.
Strategy: goal before 30 mins and lay the over 2.5 goals as market overreactions. Set and forget strat to compliment my main late goal trades. Like iv said before my aim for football is my Late Goals strats to be main focus while these work in the background.
There was a break in between so it has only been 2 month of results in total so in theory divide any of the p/ls by 2 and you have the monthly gains. The most important thing to look at right now is the strike rates. Each variation has a slight tweak to the strike rate and given the odds we are playing with even the slightest of increases here will be significant. This strategy is by no means finished or optimised but for me from experience its ready to start minimum staking it. Which is the final stage of any of my strategies. Here is an overview of the sheets for you guys to look at and tweak for yourselves:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bRdAoxJmGJKzqev7jkFc8BdPGp_1Tj9LJ4SxW2qZpfc/edit?usp=sharing
Its a clear example of why you should let your strategy breathe. There was a significant run of bad results and im sure old me and newer traders would have just binned this there and then. I didnt panic an just let it play out in background. Im glad i did and seeing these results im excited to see what kind of p/l ill be able to achieve with the variations going forward.
Like i said the most important stat going forward is strike rate. Im trying to find out from limited data the rest of the strat. However when i find a decent strat this early i mean a significant improvement like the odds variations its impossible not to rethink the strat going forward. So here is the filter. As you can tell its super basic. Its real aim is just to find games which have had less than 2.5 games in 5/10 games.
Going forward with this strategy i now want to get the 1.5 and 1.4 variations each to 100 and then from there narrow down further using the other columns in a bid to optimise this strategy, however im going into minimum staking over on my main bank i wont be posting these so ill leave this up for day or two so people can get to grips then ill be taking it down as i go back to further testing. When i do further testing i like clean sheets and organised files so i will then do a further update after each reaches 100 and i gather more data from both the tracking and from minimum stakes testing.
Let me know what you think, if you have any questions let me know. Please do not plug and play these because this is my own strategy and i know why im entering them. You will become fed up of these quite quickly without knowing the ins and outs of it. There will be decent runs of bad results and id consider this a more advanced strategy for people more experienced to use. But im just showing another example of how to build a new strategy properly.
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All 3 SHG filter selections having a goal after 60 mins, im just strict in my process and how a game qualifies but nice to see the strategy working regardless, and the fhg picking yet another FHG winner
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@daniel-cooper the rules say to avoid anyway mate
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I haven't and won't be entering any of the highlighted 3 SHG. Price was awful on the first two and top boys have come off in Kashima
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Remember the rules, wont be entering the kashima game either despite it matching in terms of price the top goalscorer has come off, it may go on to win or lose but if we enter now its a guess so please avoid this, all our data for this trade was heavily influenced by everaldo playing and scoring. I know i have a strict selection and youll be annoyed if it goes on to win but thats just something you will have to learn and if that does affect you then your too emotionally attached and probably risking money you cant afford to lose etc.
Another one added to the FHG i think the next few weeks this could start to tick along and id expect to reach the 100 milestone by november
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Im doing a post after this round of games showcasing a new strategy so come back later after the games this morning ill try show you a new thing iv been testing for the last few months. It wont be being added to the beginner bank series but will b on my own personal trading so you can tell i think highly of it. Iv been talking about it without showing for long enough
