The road to full time
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@darri thanks for the replies Darri, hoping to carve out some time tonight to look in to all this!
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@daniel-cooper iv added the wolves game to the google doc sheet, just click the POSTS tab at the top of description and head over to the trading example page. Iv left the key posts on there for everyone to go back to. So much gets lost quite quickly so trying to remember to save some of the good value ones.
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@daniel-cooper i cant remember if iv done a detailed post regarding the approach but the pre-inplay-price model has been discussed. Its probably easier to have an example of a trade so the wolves vs sevilla post shows pretty much all the info you really need for a trade, there is more to consider if you have the time to do so but those are the key things to look at.
My lcs is normally entered around 65-80 mins, if there is still pressure 5/10 mins after my first entry i will then look to add to the lcs or ltd with another stake. I have tried to explain that side a few times on the blog in a few posts.
So i think from memory the best posts to look at are the wolves game which was just last week, there is a loom video i did which is on a couple posts which highlights the selections process which covers 2 spanish games, this was last month.
The key to it all tho is the pre-inplay-price model i harp on about. If those dont help im happy to do a little run down of the strategy
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@darri said in The road to full time:
trading watchlist:
lcs/ltd:
celtic
legia
liepzigCouple of heavy favs but will see if any price is on offer, min id get on would probz be around 1.6/1.7 for qualifying rounds with another leg to go. Lets see if the champs league keeps providing the goods, been a great week or so with these.
Hi Darri. Is there a post on here somewhere explaining your LCS/LTD approach? In terms of how the trade plays out, what you look for etc?
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trading watchlist:
lcs/ltd:
celtic
legia
liepzigCouple of heavy favs but will see if any price is on offer, min id get on would probz be around 1.6/1.7 for qualifying rounds with another leg to go. Lets see if the champs league keeps providing the goods, been a great week or so with these.
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with that win today we are literally so close to having doubled our initial beginner size bank. Starting with £100 on the 10th june we now sit comfortably with £192. This could have skyrocketed if we hadnt had the slump in results in july. Thankfully i went back to the roots of my trading and zoned in on lcs trades. We have now smashed these past few weeks and everything is now in the green. I wont officially up the stakes until we actually hit £200 bit of a perfectionist tbh so it doesnt feel right. The snowball affect of compounding is closing in which ill do another post on soon. In fact once we officially hit £200 i will do a more detailed post explaining the progress so far
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@darri said in The road to full time:
late addition to the plan, lcs start v valerenga currently 1-0 74 mins
in that trade for 2 mins fantastic! sorry there wasnt much time for you lot to get on, its been rare so far for us to get one within 4-5 mins, but a win is a win, watching the inter game for final game of the day
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@darri said in The road to full time:
late addition to the plan, lcs start v valerenga currently 1-0 74 mins
Nice one, too quick for me
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late addition to the plan, lcs start v valerenga currently 1-0 74 mins
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@eamonn-hogan when there is goal pressure and value is on offer, ill post when i enter as always
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@darri said in The road to full time:
watchlist today
lcs/ltd
inter 0-0/0-1/1-0/1-1
goteborg 0-0/0-1/1-0/1-1
hacken 0-0/0-1/1-0
helsingborg 0-0short and simple list today lets hope we get can continue this form.
At what stage do you enter your LCS?
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added the updates to the tab at top if you click the blue posts tab you will see the key posts aswell as the updates to the filter. Not done a topic post in a while is there any area of trading people want me to talk about? let me know
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@darri said in The road to full time:
So the sun decided to pop up for its once a year visit to scotland yesterday so only just able to update the results this morning. I know a few of you copied the filter so we should have the exact same games on the spreadsheet.
Go have a look at the spreadsheet for your own data there are 109 games to look at. Im just going to outline what i think is the most logical step next.
Results:
What i think i want to say first is i wanted to show you how competitive the markets are priced. This is exactly how they are priced pre match. You very rarely get value from the off. At 66.1% your break even before commission etc is odds of 1.51. This is what everyone posts up saying to get in on. This is the sole reason people are giving up on the fhg market. They dont track for long enough and dont try to double down on what works.
We had 7 as the base stat for filtering games. That means 70% of games historically had a fhg. This shows in our strike rate. It was within the 70% range. So to find an edge we need to be beating these minimum odds. Without thinking about the actual trades we know 1.51 is minimum break even. So anything above and we could be in profit.
So if your familiar with spreadsheets you can use the filter bar at the top left to narrow down on each column. So to start with i checked if changing the minimum stat for the filter was better at 8 then at 9. Both showed a higher win rate.
With a stat of +8 = strike rate of 71%
with stat of +9 = strike rate of 76%Here is where we have a sample size of 63 games and only 26 games respectively. We cannot therefore say which performs better long term. So we will have to include both into the next and final batch of games.
Time difference didnt help either. In fact both the 8 and 9 stat produced 65% and 64% strike rate of games which if entered after 15 mins. Now obviously we havent found out what odds where on offer.
And with odds in mind this leads me to my final point of the results. Whenever i start a strategy test, i want to know if the broad overview of the strategy has a good potential. I havent targetted certain odds i dont care yet for that. I now know what a good base is for a strategy so any changes i make going forward i can now compare it to see if i have improved it. The whole point of data collecting right there!!
So in conclusion we have found the base stat needs to be changed from 7 to 8. We know our minimum odds right now is 1.51, something we def need to improve on. Not many games start 1.51 or below.
So whats next. The hardest thing with fhg strategies is the motivation. No team needs to win the first half. We have very little in play stats or game time to watch. So using both of those it makes it very hard to judge if odds are presenting value. So to counter that what we need to look for is more emphasis that the home team comes out firing from past trends.
THIS was the last batch update massive changes so far!! lets hope it continues to track this way and eventually we might have a strategy here. I will add this to the featured posts tab at the top of the description so its easier to guide people there so they dont have to trawl through to find each update.
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watchlist today
lcs/ltd
inter 0-0/0-1/1-0/1-1
goteborg 0-0/0-1/1-0/1-1
hacken 0-0/0-1/1-0
helsingborg 0-0short and simple list today lets hope we get can continue this form.
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@lee-woodman there is a spreadsheet tracking the results if you click on the 2020 tab at the top of this blog you will see them. So far its not mattered. Based on our filter it generally means the home team is fav. While i want to comment and have answer for you, i would rather let the data do all the talking. The data is what guides us not an idea or assumption of what might be happening. So far no data to steer us in any other direction than what we are doing currently. At 100 games traded we will then decide what to do next based purely off the data zero human input just cold hard data to guide the strategy. Hope that helps answer your question.
The previous batch of 100 testing showed a strong emphasis on home team scoring first. I then changed the filter to highlight the home team scoring first by adding home team score h1 80% and away ov 05 h1. This has changed the strike rate from 70-74% to 88% so far.
After the next batch off 100 we will then see what else either needs changing and what our strike rate is. The reason im not tracking odds etc is because we wanted to find out what impact our changes had on the market. So the first filter only had 1 stat in the stats software that we filtered games from. This then gave us a market overview. We then used that to see home teams score first more often. Which then lead to the update. Which included home scored stat, away overall stat and we increased the h1 goals stat from 6>8. We want to find out what happens to the overview of the market when we make these changes. So far its been huge so we must be going the right way. Slow and steady tho and no assumptions, the biggest mistake now would be for traders to think around the strategy and make a judgement. The data is telling us everything and will be so important when we reach 100 games to see what is next.
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@darri I hadnt really followed the FHG project from the start but ive got a couple of FHG filters myself and i was going to post yesterday asking if there had been any difference in SR, goal times etc between the favourites being at home or being away.
I often see the weaker team at home almost sitting back with the 'lets get to HT level' attitude with the onus being on the away faves to score but i have no data to correlate this so could purely be anecdotal. Obviously it varies but if we know that this situation on average leads to later goals then it can be part of the thought process in whether to enter at 20' or 25', the difference could be a decent rise in odds
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quick update to end the week. Not going into much detail just saw the game was super open, these champs/europa game are absolute golden for late goals just now. There one almost everyday currently really boosting the bank. The Zaragoza game wasnt that lively on stats and my stream wouldnt work so couldnt trade it, shame as seems like there has been a late goal there too.
Man utd game was a cracker, saw the price early doors was good, entered when sevilla had a really dangerous freekick, they scored 4/5 mins after my entry which was a nice quick turnaround. Never managed to get the ltd portion matched as was waiting till 80min for it. Still nice way to end the week.
Starting from next week ill be doing a weekly roundup, highlighting the key trades of the week including wins and losses. Gives a better understanding of how the beginner bank is actually doing instead of day by day. On some fine from right now, looks like it will be a quiet midweek so hopefully find a couple tomorrow night. Hope some managed to profit tonight.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
based on how the game has gone i will be lcs/ltd man utd vs sevilla 1-1/ 72 mins
lovely little trade there most of you will have got a better price too considering i entered before the var check for the earlier chance. Got matched just before the freekick. Thankfully we got the winner quite quickly lcs matched and another late champs/europa league goal this tournament format is a winner for traders, take advantage now!
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@eamonn-hogan said in The road to full time:
@matt-wood said in The road to full time:
Just missed out but excellent stuff Darri
You ok mate?
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