The road to full time
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@ryan-carruthers I asked the other day on the football thread about showing me or directing me to a results spreadsheet so that i could see if the strategies you were posting are still doing well. 100 trades and then not still recording it doesnt mean its a solid strategy. I had a member ask me if they were a good place to start, without that i couldnt say yes or no. I see now on the daily email martin posts that is now something you guys are working on. Which if its a consistent green which im sure they will be then yes 100% beginners looking to learn the markets should follow what you guys email out.
I turned full time pre covid, but only officially. If you look aback i was a student at the time so i was pretty much doing this full time anyway. Just now dont have the student tag to fall back on. This is now my sole income.
Iv said in the thread id like this to be an organic development of topics. So as the new bank grows i then bring up a topic relevant at the time. A day to day approach is something ill discuss later. But to answer you right now, iv only needed to trade 6 games and already made a good % of the bank. My trading isnt for everyone, most wont like the long periods with not trades, but i dont force them now. Something iv learned more recently, hence the updating of some of my older stuff.
In terms of testing my strategies, its from recording my results. When i was just entering LCS/Back next over at 1.5 at 60-65 i found there was a better opportunity to enter later in the game. I found the strike rate although smaller actually meant more if i kept to good match selection. Thats why ill typically post around 70mins onwards now. Im also more flexible with my entry, before i timestamped it like only enter at 60 etc, but now i only enter when there is goal pressure. This is only due to more experience in the markets.
Not sure why you have liked johns comment, not sure if there is some annoyance iv been helping people, especially the whole community aspect. In fact you have been vocal in the past at saying this stuff is good and detailed. I hate the feeling like i have had to defend myself for some bizarre reason as a helpful guide to people. I suppose you must be used to it yourself, given the amount of youtube comments etc, there are always sceptics when others either show success or help in this industry something ill have to adapt to over time.
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@john-g As soon as anyone who tries to help people in this industry there seems to be this band of sceptics that emerge. Thats twice now. Firstly on the football thread about FHGs which you jumped at but didnt read the post. Now its this when if you read back i already posted something similar but wanted to update it. Never spoke out then?
You could say anyone is copying the pros because we all talk about the same stuff, its just how we adapt it to our own style, something i say in almost every post, learn fro the pros and adapt to your own. How many courses online and strategies are the exact same elsewhere? How many people talk about bank management and how to LTD in the exact same way! Do you claim everyone just copies and then sells it as their own? NO, in fact if you read my very first message back was a thank you to btc (ryan, martin and adam). Iv been open with every trade iv done, its on the football thread(even the losses), its got screenshots and its on my spreadsheets. Iv been doing this from the very first day i set this thread up.
Isnt it enough just to express what has helped people? Im only saying what worked for me. Im not preaching from what others are saying. In fact you can ask the btc guys i dont agree with everything.
So instead of being nice to me over private message, saying thanks for the advice and then jumping on here for a go, work on your own trading, even attempt some of the stuff ill say maybe then you wont need to worry about what im doing. Only interested in working with people who want to improve.
Ask some of the members have i helped them. Im building a FHG for the members that follow, what more can i do to help people. I havent sold anything mate, im setting up a podcast which will have a link to btc, weird why @Ryan-Carruthers wasnt keen to share that when he liked your comment? If that then develops into something more then so what you begrudging good people a right to do well for themselves?
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@Darri congrats on going pro too btw.
Your posts are very thorough. I’d like to ask...
June: what was your day yo day Trading activities like? (This fascinates me what traders do related to trading on a daily basis).
Strategy: how long did you back test your strategies? What’s the process now for deciding how many games you’ll trade.
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@ryan-carruthers said in The road to full time:
@darri Very long and in-depth post here, this is what Martin and I have been preaching for years.
Glad to see you have embodied the 'What has to happen question' this is one of the most powerful Q's I think there is in trading - it also allows traders to adopt any way they want to trade for themselves.
Would you not advise traders who are just staring out to also look at Martin and myself as well though?
haha was thinking how long you will put up with his extreme self promo, hes clearly sellin summit soon!
surely there must be some rules on this?
hes also just regurgitating everything you say for years but makin it seem like its his! plaigarism at its best.
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@darri Very long and in-depth post here, this is what Martin and I have been preaching for years.
Glad to see you have embodied the 'What has to happen question' this is one of the most powerful Q's I think there is in trading - it also allows traders to adopt any way they want to trade for themselves.
Would you not advise traders who are just staring out to also look at Martin and myself as well though?
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@stuart-capstick thanks mate!
Added it to the sheet so people can refer to it later
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@darri
This is great. I particularly like the idea of a small, consistent increase every month/whatever LONGER term period.
The idea of treating this as a small business is excellent for the future. In a business, you wouldn't blow 50% of your budget in a week on a risky venture. Nor would you expect to double turnover in a month.
Thanks again for all your efforts.
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I posted a similar guide before on this thread not long ago. I feel it needs a bit of updating. Its also frightening how relevant it still is It helped a few traders who had a hard time and turned them into profitable traders who i still speak to and actually dont mind bouncing ideas off now, they created their own strats that arent widely used by people and its doing very well. This post goes well with the guide im building on the beginners guide roadmap(link in the description at top). This one is all about Mastering ONE Strategy! This will be super useful for anyone new or anyone who is still in limbo about whats working or not.
I feel as if people are almost selling their own style of trading to people and on looking im one of them. But i absolutely get why. We are trying to get people on board because we are profitable. No point trying to help people or show them your strategy if your struggling yourself. Instead try to look at it as well these guys are profitable, what in their strategy or way of trading makes them profitable. This is the KEY to finding out how you will trade long term. Remember the POST i made tho about following these people tho, make sure they back up what they say(read further up on following traders/tipsters).
How would i start from scratch?
Im showcasing that just now, but i have the advantage of knowing i have a good strategy and match selection. But what happens if iv never traded on betfair before. If i had a small bank i would most likely either follow one pro trader who posts consistently (keith/frode) using small stakes or some other sites selections. Once iv built enough of a bank start to dabble with low stakes in other markets. Learn how other markets work, how other strategies work and get a feel of what you prefer. Make a list of everything you have tried and tier it based off how you felt executing the trades. Doesnt have to have been a profitable venture at this stage. So an example of strategies would be FHG, LTD and LCS. Now you have a list of your favourite strategies.
Whats next?/Price/Entry points
Select the top strategy on your list. Write down everything you know from your first attempts as to what happens in that market. Does the price spike at certain events. What way does the price move up/down. Once you know the price movements then you can write down at what price would i would be comfortable getting in at. So example would be first half goals, if you have an entry point at say 1.5 you are then roughly getting into the market in the first 15 mins of the half. Write all this down so you know on average when your getting in. Also start to find what the average price is at the time you want to enter at. Amass an average price of around 40-50 games.
Make a filter to automate the selections process
BTC stats software is a helpful tool to minimise the amount of manual research to do, but dont neglect the manual stuff to much. In here dont over complicate things. I see people posting filters with every detail. Its as if they are hunting for the perfect trade. Its when you do that kind of thing you end up seeing them trade every game without caring about anything else, stats dont make a trade they guide you to one. INSTEAD start with a couple of the most important stats you believe are key to your strategy. So FHG we need a high stat for teams scoring in the fh. You get the jist. Trade with them for a while. After trading about 10-20 games from it youll start to notice stats that could have been changed to avoid some losers. Start to add that to the filter. What we are trying to show from MY FHG BTC project. The proper way to build a filter and then how to properly test it.
Master one at a time!
You now have a strategy with all your entry points, you know what price a market should be at your chosen entries so you can predict value(when the price is higher than usual/chance to happen) and now you have a filter thats now giving you the games that best suit. Start the bank from scratch. Go back to your initial £50/£100 bank. Why? Because you wont be emotional about trading stakes with money you can afford to replace. Stick to 1/2% stakes. Listen a strategy that works with 1% is going to perform just as well at 2/3/4. Learn small and then grow to what best improves your trading. I still only ever trade second half games with 2% of my bank.
Onto a winner?
I think any strategy that hits on average 5% growth of the bank is a good strategy. If you can consistently hit that every month with one strategy your able to forecast at what point you can scale up. Thats the main aim really and i think most newbie traders fail at this. They get a strategy its rises their bank in a huge spike and they get over confident. Your seeing it on the football thread all the time. Suddenly there is a new trader trading and doubling their bank in a week, give it 2 months and somehow they have vanished? They failed to work with a solid platform. Learn to win from small beginnings. I failed by doing this multiple times at the start. Learn to win with a £50/£100 bank it will make you a more disciplined and trained trader for when you then reach £500/£1000 because your trading shouldnt change just because your now staking more. All trading principles should remain consistent.
Im consistently profitable and starting to scale?
Do this whole process again with the 2nd strategy that was on your list. You have taken the time to improve 1 strategy that you can rely on to build a bank. Nothing changes start small again put a small amount of your bank you have built towards testing this new one whilst also building your main bank with the mastered strategy. I still think this step is taken too quickly and too eagerly. We all see people post strats/trades that make them money so everyone wants to jump on. Work on your own. Be disciplined. You dont see business leaders just jump on bandwagons because others are. Treat your trading as your business. You want to do this full time then your self employed. Start treating it that way even as a beginner.
Whats next?
You now have 2 strategies that on average make between 5/10% growth each. So every month your taking home 20% bank growth (better than sitting in your actual bank account) you now just scale them as your bank grows. 2 strategies is easy to manage weekends arent daunting. If you follow my other posts about further research your even more streamlined for weekends. I find the best traders stick to 1/2 core strategies, and maybe have a side account ie using betdaq/smarkets and have that one doing additional trades.
20% isnt much?
Look i understand a £100 bank and only making £20 a month isnt huge. But its ingraining good business growth to you.
You make 20% of a bank every month that you reset(compounding):
Year 1 you would be close to £900
Year 2 would be £8,000Anyone who has read all the way to this point can now use this and see how to grow properly and now you understand how the pros are making such huge numbers every year. Imagine doing a full year with 20% with a 10k/20k bank. All of which just takes 2 years of self discipline and you too can turn a £100 bank into those numbers.
Turn trading into a business/family life
Well done if you reached here. I could have written so much more about each topic but i suppose ill save them for future posts. I honestly hate it when i see other posts saying they have "doubled there bank in a week do this guys" 2 months later they have gone from the forum presumably blown their whole bank. They also then start posting their tips but suddenly they all lose? then go missing and claim to have won all their money back and the cycle resumes? avoid these people guys! Do not laugh at the trader who consistently makes 5/10% profit per month they have the business sown up. They can forecast future trading points. It also helps with home life. If you want to do this long term for example, your trading spikes arent consistent month to month. You cannot predict being able to pay for certain things in the house or holidays because your bank is inconsistent. 5/10/20% every month consistently allows you to do this. It sets you up for the long term. And when the odd month that you smash its a bonus.
Over eager/chasing
People are too quick at trying to get banks to certain levels instead of first focusing on improving the trading process. If you cant trade with a £100 you damn cant with a £10k. Remember keep every step simple dont overwhelm yourself. Even if our losing early doors jot everything down learn from it, why didnt that trade work? what could i have done better? why did i lose on weekends? did i overtrade? did i trade too many games and got overwhelmed? One answer to all that stick to finding one strategy your good at and work from there. Ill never stop saying it.
Conclusion:
Stop trying to track and trade multiple strategies. Learn one. All of the above shows why. You are halting your growth massively by spreading yourself. Focus on one thing. Im showing that on the fhg filter. It doesnt take long. Itll take 2 months max. Then you start snowballing with that bank month on month. How can you really expect to become a good trader focusing on too much at one time. The pros know when a PRICE is good, why because they have traded that markets 100s of times. Stop making that barrier to entry longer than it should be. Think of businesses. They master one thing before they attempt another. Amazon is a prime example of that.
Iv had a 2 traders message me in the past 2 weeks saying they listened to my posts, they also messaged asking for advice and they have both just had profitable weeks and weekends. Im not saying im a master or big headed but i do believe in my process and hopefully someone can take it adapt it to their style and make it work. It amazing to hear feedback like this and thats 2 more profitable traders added to the minority of profitable ones. Which only ever adds value to this community. As the cycle now increases of profitable traders on here who can give advice and selections. (update: is it a coincidence this just happened again 4 months since i posted this) i honestly believe in helping people this way rather than watchlist/tips service but i understand they all help. I hope what i give back to people is the realisation take those tips and then apply this advice. Remember use all the info i give. Make it all work for you. Trading is far simpler than it looks. Thats why iv started to do videos to show the stuff i preach only takes about 15 mins max to implement each day, cutting away hours of bad trades/games to watch.
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@darri thanks mate, looking forward to the big reveal
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@darri brilliant this Darri going to watch videos again this weekend when I have more time to make some notes. Great stuff
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What i plan to do in future is ill record the game as before but only post if trade become active, that way i get to show the full process.
Ill also be doing a quick watchlist video every morning. Showing what games im looking at and removing from my lists. Ill only start doing these once i have the mic that i ordered.
From monday next week ill also have a new trading channel setup. It will initially have podcasts and other trading related content. From it there are other plans, but still a bit away. exciting times tho. Please message us or email me if you want me to help with strats/trade ideas/matches discussed, i can do a detailed video to help you.
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Betis scoring too early. Thats 2 games posted and both having a goal too early. Match selection spot on. Odds were 1.31 at HT would have been a cracking price come 70mins. Also a CANALES corner/assist, always looking for a slight edge in the market. Key players on the pitch at time of entry is key.
Dont get frustrated when a goal comes too early. There are 10s of opportunities every week. Go have a look at my results sheet. Iv only been active in 6 games. Remember i also trade later than most in a game and also i havent been actively trading past week. The whole purpose of what im showing is to select games and how to critique them. Ill start to include games in bunches and show why id eliminate a game.
Shame i havent been able to show a trade start to finish yet, but plenty of stuff coming up. Also iv kept the FHG sheet updated good start in terms of amount of games already!
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https://www.loom.com/share/b6d4d57a1a844b4589226e2f472d2cec
Key stats:
Home score 100% last 5 games, away concede 80%.
Home score H2 and away concede H2 = 80%.
Strong emphasis on late goals, only 6% goals between 50-70 mins. Large % after 70 mins.
League table shows both could use a win. Espanyol need it more but i cant see betis defending a draw.Team lineups:
Spread out goalscorers again, given league position of both teams understandable. Fekir and canales both high up in both goals and assists. Key players for me. I see they are playing almost every game and full 90 so are key players. Will see if they are still on the pitch when i look to enter trade.
MY Trade
Strong emphasis on late goals here. While there could be a goal glut based on betis defence stats, id only enter this if its 0-0. The stats do favour one team dominating but given league table i dont feel safe in betis. So id only be LCS/Backing the ov 0.5 markets here. So my trade if betis and espanyol have good stats in 2nd half, look for a entry around 70 mins when action is high, make sure fekir and canales are playing. The odds prior to game showed a high number, id expect that to be reflective late game. If 0-0 at around 65-70 we could be looking at 1.65-1.8 odds for 1 more goal.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@dean-adams Thanks mate!
Valencia game was going to be a game id do a preview of but was out all day today and the sunburn hasnt allowed me to sit still since!
Just away to do one for the betis game now, i was thinking about another thread or private email when people can ask me about certain trades and then i can give a detailed video back. Sometimes hard to express via words. If your interested in that private message me.
interested in the Betis game Darri. I got it as a second half goal and over 1.5 goals. But also decent chance of a FHG as well. So it looks like a few options to look at for trading here
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@dean-adams Thanks mate!
Valencia game was going to be a game id do a preview of but was out all day today and the sunburn hasnt allowed me to sit still since!
Just away to do one for the betis game now, i was thinking about another thread or private email when people can ask me about certain trades and then i can give a detailed video back. Sometimes hard to express via words. If your interested in that private message me.
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@Darri the information and detail you’ve provided in this blog is pure gold. Hats off and thank you fella for taking the time to put this together
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@gary-brown 100% free no sign up needed:
https://www.flashscore.co.uk/
https://www.sofascore.com/The pages i showed on sofa score only pop up when the game is in play and the lineups only comes when the team sheets announced, that why i didnt do the video earlier
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oh for sofa score is it free to join up Darri?
Do you have to join up to get access to the pages you showed on the video of the game you looked at yesterday.Also is it the same with flash scores to be able to fully use the site you need to sign up. I am sure I couldn't access some of the pages you looked at on flash scores being a non member of that website.
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@gary-brown st gallen only game on our fhg filter today. Valencia and the betis game are the 2 ill be doing a preview of
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@darri said in The road to full time:
So those videos yesterday were so well received thanks guys! Even tho i rushed it, shame this forum doesnt allow certain file types to be posted. Iv an idea of how i can post a video and not have a huge post behind it. Iv setup a shortlist/guide for the layout of each post. Iv got 2 games to preview today. Still no mic yet so no sound but will be good to find if these are the formats people prefer over time. Once i have the mic at least i can then explain the stats in a quicker detail. I dont want to bore you going through each individual stat on a post. More summary of the key parts.
nice one Darri. What games are you looking into today. I am struggling today to find games .
I have got St Gallen V Zurich as my best trade to look at. But I thought Valencia game maybe worth a look as both sides have something to play for.
