The road to full time
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Please only look at the alcorcon game, it the one i posted in relation to this bank building journey. First loss of the challenge so far.I finished watching the united game and jumped straight onto watching this game. At the time of my entry alcorcon were on top. Stoichkov had about 3 sitters that he missed or were cleared of line. I entered the lcs part at just after 70 mins. I waited till after the drinks break to see if the action would still be lively, it was, so i entered a LTD portion around the 79 min mark. Loads of chances, a disallowed goal 94 mins in and overall id be very happy to be on this sort of game again.
Whilst its annoying for anyone to post about a losing trade i find the fact i then have to write about it so refreshing. I get to show clear evidence as to why i traded that game and highlight if i made any mistakes. Losses happen guys, just move onto the next trade. Losses do bring out of you tho the ability for you to then justify your trade, are you doing the right practises etc.
Will see how rest of week pans out, while im cautious of the covid schedule it is nice that we have games nicely spaced out, instead of the hustle and bustle of a weekend.
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Hi guys would someone be kind enough tocould
take a screen shot of the fhg filter requirements etc I am sure I keep getting it wrong -
Thanks Darri thats a great answer and clears things up for me
I guess a lot of it comes down to personal choice about how trading is actually carried out (assuming all the right statistical criteria are in place).
Your explanation of how and why you do things makes a lot of sense and I can understand exactly where you are coming from with your viewpoints on trading. Thanks for make that transparent and clear it is very helpful to a beginner such as myself
I think for me I am still trying to find which style suits my brain. Until I do I will be keeping stakes small. Keep up the excellent stuff here and thank you for what you are doing here
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@matt-wood great question! If after its tested you can spot a pattern which compliments the 2.5 trades then yes. It would need to be tested tho. However from a personal point of view i dont like those strategies. Trading in and out in the goals markets isnt fun for me. Mainly because once you enter the odds are always going against you. So say we have a 43 min winner are we still getting a good risk/reward ratio?
With a overs trade you also do kind of need to add drip staking which i hate personally. Iv tried it and it just frustrated me. It works no doubt but for me the frustration of being right and then not getting a good reward after finding a good value trade sucks. I prefer if i spot a good game and it all matches my criteria to be fully confident in that trade and enter full stake. I find sometimes drip staking tends to veer towards a touch of fomo. people scared to miss the opportunity, whereas im quite bullish and just get in at the time i think most goal pressure is showing. Cant stress how important it is for me to just keep a trading process simple. If i manage to find something that works with little variables instead of different price entries etc then ill be able to repeat endlessly and when the opportunity arrives not dilly dally and instead just get in at right times.
I love simple trading. Anything too complicated via strategies, odds, staking, filters etc and it gets hard to repeat over and over due to variables. FHG market is simple it suits me, but thats not to say other markets wont be as good for the same filter.
So yes if you spot an opportunity go for it, just make sure that if you do that when you enter your making sure you give yourself a good enough odds swing for when the goal does come.
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@Darri A newbie question if you have the time to answer, no rush though.
Lets fast forward and assume everything goes to plan with the FHG filter and money starts getting used. Past the small stake tests and fully into a trusted strategy with full stakes being used.
At this point would you play ONLY the FHG strategy on a game from this filter or would you also use the same games for complimentary strategies? i.e. an over 2.5 system where an early goal would be profitable.
Thanks in advance, no rush though
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@darri haha yea we all have an error in us, we are all human
I should know I seem to be somewhat of an expert on errors
The filter is doing great though. 100% on mine! quality not quantity which is exactly what we want
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@matt-wood still prone to human error, least it wasnt an error were money was involved, just another winner tho
just going to add them to the sheet whenever they pop up on filter from now on instead of whats on each day -
@darri hopefully not, you're the teacher lol
I usually check it daily though and only look at the games for that day, also usually very early in the morning.
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@matt-wood maybe iv made a mistake here then :man_facepalming_light_skin_tone: added it to the sheet anyway
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@darri I am following along with this and the Thun game was on my filter this morning (around 7ish) as I researched it and added it to my tracking ss.
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Quiet on the trading front for me been heavy on the cricket the past 5 days over on my personal trading account. Not wanting to mix the 2 sports on this thread just yet, in line with the beginner journey it wouldnt fit. Jumping from sports and strategies too early will harm development. Also from a personal point only been trading cricket for almost a year now started 2 weeks before the world cup last year, so not in any way going to talk about how to find edges there just yet. Im loving the learning of a new sport forget sometimes how fun trading is when you test and learn new markets. It does get boring doing the same thing month on month. Had a huge success on the world cup last year but tackling new formats in cricket is something im very keen to add. I think football and cricket compliment each other due to how trades work. I also think cricket suits me more. But football has been solid to get me in this position so just taking it slow.
Out of interest, iv been keeping the FHGs updated but anyone else getting games pop up on filters after a game has kicked off? Just checked and the Thun vs xamax game was not on the filters this morning, yet i just checked and its now up as a game. Maybe the football schedule playing up on the filter updates. While we arent physically trading these games yet ill add them to the sheet but obviously if we were putting money on them it would have been a missed winner. Hopefully a its just been a one off and its just a random rescheduled game. These FHGs are off to a great start too
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@gary-brown if your using the same filter as the one i posted youll be seeing the same games as me. So no FHGs for today. LTD/LCS the 2 games that pop up are low quality for me so waiting for a busy weekend to find some good trades. You know i dont like to post a watchlist because it leads members to over trade them, plus my whole strategy revolves around team news, inplay stats/watch game and price. When i see an opportunity ill post it on the football thread when i deem it to be a value trade. Dont worry that i havent posted one for a while, we made 70% on our bank last month. £100-£168 so no need to be jumping at things.
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thanks Darri.
Oh have you got some games on your filter coming up?
How do I find them? -
@gary-brown just read through the blog sorry i didnt see your question about 5 or 10 game scope. I have mine set to 5 for a couple reasons. Teams go through patches throughout the season. I also believe most recent for is pure form. Anything more seems a bit historic. What i mean by that is while teams go through runs they also change lineups, players get injured and managers change. I think a good example of this is the form of united right now, or the form of rangers after xmas break. If you had gone off their last 10 games would have brought some pretty mixed results.
Secondly i like to make sure my strategy can be done manually. While btc have rarely ever been down you have to remember this is my business. If i outsource my stats then i need to have a backup. This is primarily why i keep things as simple as possible. None of my strategies are particularly complicated and can be easily researched manually. Also another reason why i typically only trade the top leagues.
Im not against 10 at all in fact i think probably on average people on this site use 10 but for me the above reasons are why i prefer to use 5 game scope.
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I think motivation should be a pre game yes or no question to rule trades out. So doesnt matter if they are playing all their big guns and playing well. If theres no motivation rule it out. You will miss some winners but the amount of losing trades youll miss will really add up come the end of the month.
I ruled at least 3 out for this last week that lost which is 6% saved, this is huge over the week -
@darri said in The road to full time:
Also, over on the football thread got a bit of stick for saying motivation wasnt a key factor. Actually should have used the FHG example. Liverpool were on our filters the other day. I ruled it out due to the league being over. If we had counted it would have been a LOSS
motivation is a huge factor in my trading, more so near end of seasons. I also would say motivation happens during middle of season too when european games are used and teams will be rotated etc. Man utd under fergie were prime examples of this started slow during the busy european schedule then improved over xmas into the new year. More recent example of this is celtic in scotland. Their sole motivation is europe early doors because of the financial impact it has on the club.
I know why i got stick wasnt because of my point it was due to me saying it post match but if i see someone who is doing the mistakes i made and i think i can help then its silly not to. Dont treat what i say as gospel but if you look at the football thread lots of the losing trades are because of the lack of team news, lineups at time of trade, motivation, odds etc. It takes 1 minute to look at this stuff, and could save you a losing trade. Its the whole fomo thing and some people refuse to believe that. If its on the filter it could still win theory. Kind of like what @Finn-Kristensen said too, if we allow games that dont fit our strict criteria we are then allowing assumptions or hunches to creep in which resembles gambles instead of trades.
100% agree mate, motivation is definitely a factor , especially at this stage in the season. The way I look at its is if a team goes a goal down, will they actually give a f*** if they go on to lose? If the answer is no I wouldn't consider it in the first place.
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@darri I have to agree mate! It's always worth the extra few minutes to research the games.
I have a few trading rules written down and one of those is 'Go With Your Gut'. If there is a small % of fear or worry about the trade even if the stats all line up then stay away from it.... Much like you mentioned with team motivation!
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Also, over on the football thread got a bit of stick for saying motivation wasnt a key factor. Actually should have used the FHG example. Liverpool were on our filters the other day. I ruled it out due to the league being over. If we had counted it would have been a LOSS
motivation is a huge factor in my trading, more so near end of seasons. I also would say motivation happens during middle of season too when european games are used and teams will be rotated etc. Man utd under fergie were prime examples of this started slow during the busy european schedule then improved over xmas into the new year. More recent example of this is celtic in scotland. Their sole motivation is europe early doors because of the financial impact it has on the club.
I know why i got stick wasnt because of my point it was due to me saying it post match but if i see someone who is doing the mistakes i made and i think i can help then its silly not to. Dont treat what i say as gospel but if you look at the football thread lots of the losing trades are because of the lack of team news, lineups at time of trade, motivation, odds etc. It takes 1 minute to look at this stuff, and could save you a losing trade. Its the whole fomo thing and some people refuse to believe that. If its on the filter it could still win theory. Kind of like what @Finn-Kristensen said too, if we allow games that dont fit our strict criteria we are then allowing assumptions or hunches to creep in which resembles gambles instead of trades.
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Realising i never really explained the whole concept behind why im focusing on home teams for FHGs, which doesnt really help others in finding out how to build there own. So reasons are as follows:
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Home team motivation. based on our filter we are likely to have high scoring home teams, which then normally means they will also be deemed favourite pre match. A home favourite will (used to have crowd behind them) look to kill the game early doors.
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Home teams that are heavy odds on favourites still have a fair price in the FHG markets. Lets use the brentford vs charlton game tonight. Brentford are 1.29 to back tonight very odds on favourites. Yet head over to the FHG market and they are 1.37-1.43 odds range. So in my eyes we can see a that that price will rise to a nice price fairly early in the first half for us to get in at.
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We are only looking for one goal. By focusing on one team we are able to focus better. If on that trade the away score we still win but its about making sure we are as confident as we can be that this game will likely have a goal.
I hope that explains the angle of home team bias. It will also clear up how we are still able to get on heavy favs because the FHG markets arent as favourable to them as the other goal markets are. Dont be fooled by the success of the new filter so far, i expect it to be closer to the last batch but just a slight improvement. Please also remember that im ruling out games end of season if the home team doesnt have a title, europe, playoff, relegation to play for.
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