The road to full time
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@darri Iād be interested to hear your take on the filtering of data after a certain amount of data has been collated. I see a lot of filters which are further filtered by sometimes arbitrary reasons and Iād like to know what your take on it is
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Any other topics you guys ever want in more detail or just a quick answer, feel free to post on here. Right now i just post when i come across a forum post on a different thread and try explain how i do it on here but would be happy to be a bit more specific via a question etc. BTC guys do a cracking job at helping but i do like helping and is something id like to do more of, currently helping a few one to one right now so feel free to private message if you need any guidance
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@Darri another great post mate...invaluable insight into the thought that goes into building a filter and strategy to match
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Awesome to hear this lads, got a bit bored today so decided to write something decent
@Chris-Osborne do you mean in terms of comparing say me to one of the other full time traders? I too would be interested in that, sounds like im ego boosting here but i rarely see others post like this for football anyway thats not on some course or service. Could look to try get a video or podcast with another trader as my first one -
@darri said in The road to full time:
jeez never knew i was that much i wrote sorry guys! if you read that fair play
when i start its hard to stop because really each step is needing a lot of detail and deserves a post of each stage rather than this big one, but its a fairly reasonable overview of what i was trying to explain. That took me far too long to type Great post
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@darri Awesome post Darri explains your approach thoroughly. Taking my writing style here - why use 1 word when 500 will do!
What would be interesting to me anyway is to see how other experienced and profitable traders develop there strategies and if there are significant differences in approach?
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@darri
I think this is excellent: clear and detailed.
Thanks again. Hope the new ventures are going grand for you.
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jeez never knew i was that much i wrote sorry guys! if you read that fair play
when i start its hard to stop because really each step is needing a lot of detail and deserves a post of each stage rather than this big one, but its a fairly reasonable overview of what i was trying to explain. That took me far too long to type -
Posted the other day that im going to track the shg filter i posted up to help new traders or those wanting to start 2nd half trading. Because this will provide more games than my main trading i want to show a more analytical side to things. Because its a step ahead of the FHG in terms of the filter has been thoroughly tested its a good stage to explain why i have an entry of 1.5 (+0.02 or +0.05 for commission). Dont worry for those following the FHG filter this stage will be covered in better detail as its a project im building the blog around so will be my main post in future.
Explaining the filter:
overall matches played + scope set to 5 + current season only:
This is used throughout my filters. I believe that only current season form should be used to analyse data. Teams change so much these days in both players, managers and tactics. These impact stats more than the regular punter realises. Iv highlighted how in previous posts. I also believe the last 5 games at home and last 5 away for each team respectively is true current form. There are many teams who have bursts of good form. United did end of this season, if you had used a 10 games scope you would have been lagging behind the current trend.The ov 0.5 H2 stat for overall, home and away:
I cant tell you the amount of times this baffles me. People showing me their filter looking for ov 2.5 to be high or btts to happen etc, these stats are not optimal. The only stat we need is to find 1 goal in H2! Looking for games using other stats are what most bettor use and why the bookies advertise those markets more. Thats why you typically see games with huge goal expectation being god awful odds throughout the game, think of your icelands or psg at home type games. One goal filters are optimal and pure logic.
Home team scoring is something similar to the FHG reasoning. We are looking at data which suggests there is a home team bias. Therefore we double down and focus on home team stats in the filters. This is where the filter is flexible it basically means we believe if motivation is there that the home team have a good chance of scoring in H2. Backing up our overall 0.5 stat already included.
Away ov 0.5 H2 is just to cover the gaps. Dont want the home team stats to be overpowering and covering up for a decent away team. We want the away team to have plenty of goals too and not to be a slight slippery slope. Often see people filters have this common mistake not realising the overall is actually and average of home and away. A strong home team stat can often flatter the overall even if the away arent so strong on the stats.Explaining testing:
Like with all my tests of strategies it all starts with the filter and market overview tests. These dont include odds as i want to see how the market works and then what stats from the filter are most important.
Market overview: this is a super common mistake most people do. They test the strategy from the off with opinions. Im a very data focused trader and let data decide how i trade. So all i did here was test the H2 overall 0.5 >= 60 and from there i tracked 100 games. Regardless of score. This as you can imagine quickly gave me enough trades to see how the market performed on a broad level. In the recorded data i tracked what % the ov h2 was at. Our filter entry was 60 as a minimum but we then added to the sheets of each game what it was. We also add column for strike rate and time of goal. The results of this test showed a much lower strike rate than most other filters (rmember its a market overview) and was inline with the odds on offer throughout the match. What it did give us tho was that when the stats filter was set to 80% there was a significant boost to strike rate. The strike rate right now was only just matching the odds on offer so we had no edge.Phase 2 filter optimisation: my favourite stage of any strategy testing. Using the data from the last batch we set the overall H2 0v 0.5 >=80%or 8. We then used the tracked data to run a calculation of how many games saw the home team or away team score. The majority was home teams so double down on that. Keeping everything consistent we keep it all set to 80%. Using this we also add in away to make sure its across the board and there are no hidden holes to our filter. This is then tested as usual. There was a large hike just like the FHGs in strike rate. Meaning we had now found the stats that affected the market the most. The strike rate was now showing our min odds to be less than the average offered odds at any time in H2 meaning anything we waited for was a bigger edge. also maintain your tracing on time of goal as its pivotal in the last stage.
Phase 3 odds and time range: Another thing people do is have an opinion of when to enter via odds and time in strategies. This will be my favourite topic when the fhgs update is due as i believe most do it based off of opinion rather than data. This is the sexy stage of any strat and is more a case of finding out how to make money from your testing. Kind of like you have manufactured a product now your trying to find how best to sell it. This is a super simple stage but is the hardest from most as seen via members posting on this blog. All you do is look back at your previous data and using the time of goal column find out the strike rates of each 10min window. So 50/60/70/80 mins. As the game goes on your strike rate should be less. For this one its was still producing over 80% for goals after 60 mins. This im sure most are aware is the time i used to enter. This is what built my bank. So we now have a strike rate of +80% we now convert that to odds and add 0.02 or 0.05 for commission to see our min odds. This is at min 1.27. Most games come 60 are around +1.38 for heavy fav games and often around 1.45 for the rest. Onto a winner even with the basic odds on offer.
Now we focus on odds. This is where the opinions fly about. All i do and its this simple not saying its the only way. But i track using minimum stakes and start from odds of the minimum so 1.27 and i add my desired edge which is +0.2 so here we have 1.47 so instead ill round that to 1.53(with commission added and a small tick added for strike rate terms). This is the edge i stick to with all trades as a good tracking target. Anything less seems pointless to me. From here i then track in increments of 0.1. So i track odds of 1.53/1.64/1.75. I then do 100 games worth of tracking and if the odds producing the most profit is 1.7 ill then do another batch. This time i can add 1.7 as the main so can stake my main bank stakes on but also continue to minimum stake test the next load so 1.86/1.97/2.08 etc. Until i cap myself in terms of time range and when lack of games qualify.
Final phase: strategy adding: thats it for testing. You know have all the results you need. The results of the last test shows that this makes around using base odds of 1.53 a base return of 12.5 points profit using 1 point stakes. We know that if the trade is not matched by 65 mins then it is no longer value based on our time range tracking. So as a base strategy we have completed a profitable filter. This is why im recommending this filter for everyone to use. I stake 2% or 2 points for it and therefore makes 25 points every 100 games on average.
BUT! From here this is were your tracking comes in handy. This is when you can branch out into other angles or other markets. From this data its clear for me to see i can trade later in the game and still outperform the market strike rate. By entering plus 70 mins which is what i do know i know that i can trade much less but make more and at minimum the same for less effort. And this is the only stage of the process personal preference comes in. Do you prefer the system approach of enter at set odds or set time or do what i do and watch the game do the lineup research and make sure its even more strictly selected. This has added atleast 4-5% strike rate better and when we are taking about odds of 1.75 or more thats a hefty profit increase. For me this is more a side to trading id suggest if you want to take this seriously and treat this as a proper business mindset or are you happy letting it tick along and net you a nice side income. Both are fine.
Just wanted to do this post to show the stages in full, when we come to the fhg and with easy access to filters results using the spreadsheets ill be able to explain each step far more clearly. Just wanted to show the thinking and a good chance while its quiet to discuss a decent topic. It all seems so difficult but when you actually look at it trading is a very simple model if you divide it up into small bitesize pieces and learn each one before you move onto the next. Any questions about this one please ask im sure iv missed out a heap i wanted to include but its rather long already. save some more for another post.
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With the stats software down just a quick reminder for people and a bit of perspective. Dont be a slave to trading. Trading is still placing bets in markets so please dont become addicted. Its why pros tell you to try become as robotic about your process as possible as not to get addicted to it. Once you come up with something that makes you money you keep wanting to find another game to keep going. So for the example of today if you miss a day so what, are you never going to have a holiday now your trading? Its silly guys. Trading everyday is the road to burnout and why most traders end up leaving because as we keep saying the mental side of the game is what keeps good traders successful.
Take today off, the quality of football today is shocking anyway why are people trading lower division/poor quality games? Once your bank is big enough to make you full time youll never be touching them anyway.
Just be patient. Wait for the right trades. If your strategy cant support a day off then there is something wrong and you will need to fix that maybe your risk reward ratio aint good enough. Iv said it loads before, quality over quantity, im not trying to sell my way of trading but those needing to be trading 20-30 games a week just to make some profit are risking sooo much. Be more selective. Hopefully you will in time see as you get more experience these things become clearer but i can understand the frustration but just want to make it clear that its not the end of world to lose a days trading it shouldn't impact your results if it does in a bad way then there is something for you to look at changing.
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@matt-wood thanks buddy, just thought i would write them up as had been thinking about it recently. In terms of games after europe it would be wise to have a look at lineups more heavily here, pre match must look more clear than normal and inplay stats same. Over exaggerate the amount you need these to be. However from my data in the past maybe luck but iv not seen a huge dip in terms of my match selection. I guess its because of my pre-inplay-price it kind of filters out teams that are a bit sluggish after midweek if they dont perform well enough come 70 mins etc or when they rest and rotate from these games.
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Morning Darri, all good and well I hope
Great couple of posts in the last few days. As usual some golden nuggets of advice that I will do my best to make permanent in my head.
Quick question. I have no games today on my filters, so no trading for me, but just looking at fixtures etc noticed that there are a large number of european comp qualifiers today. Bearing this in mind, would you adjust/modify your thinking about the games that might come up on this weekend's filter results?
I ask this, even though my filters are in their infancy, but lets say you had a tried and trusted one, it throws up a couple of games where the teams were involved today (euro quals). Would you reconsider your trade on them at the weekend?
Sorry bit waffling, bad nights sleep (3 hrs tops) Hope that makes sense
Thanks in advance
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@darri said in The road to full time:
just thought i should post something on here too after posting on dans blog earlier. Juts a small tip for new traders who find it hard to stop themselves with FOMO when using a forum like this.
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write a trading plan: its harped on about all the time by the pros and especially on this blog. In this plan write down the match, your entry price and exit if its a traded strategy, what i mean by this is it can be your minimum you would be happy to accept. ONLY DO THESE TRADES. If they are from a filter or however you find your games, get them in place well before KO and have the plan ready.
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Write the time of each trade: this is hugely relevant to the post and fomo. If your strategy is a 2nd half goal game and it kicks off at 2pm say in germany then write down that you will look at the game come 3pm. This will help manage your time and make sure your at the screen less, which in the early days helps avoid you trade hunting and looking to see what others do. In between these times log off from the forum and betfair go do something completely different.
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Execute your trade first: i used to get suckered into following all the pros on here and trade when i saw them post. Doing this leads you to being at risk of jumping in when they have a bad run of games. STOP THIS. To do this i would instead wait until i have a trade active in the markets before i log on here. That way when i see someone post a game to trade i already have a game active so dont feel like im missing out on trades or potential profit.
These little tips will help counter the FOMO element when trying to develop your own trades. I have always said on this blog develop your own styles and its why i actively help people build their own filters. You knowing the ins and outs of our own strategy is so powerful long term. Im showing you exactly how to build a filter and strategy from scratch in the FHG project. Using this same method you can apply this to any strategy you ever think of. I know itll sound weird because i post my own trades so sounds counter to what im gonna say but id almost encourage people not to follow others. Only once you have your own trading strategy setup should you look to maybe add things from other members. That way you have an idea of how the markets work, what kinda profit per strategy you need/want, and most importantly you can see so clearly the good and bad strategies that get posted all the time.
Once you have faith in your ability you will have less urge to jump on others trades. I dont trade any of the posted trades from any member but i still like to see ideas and what type of trades people are doing. I find this to be the best way to use the forum.
Not everyone on here is a pro regardless of how well presented their stuff/data is. I wish there was some way of showing who is and isnt without crushing egos or upsetting them. This is a place to learn not to just copy from. Use the forum the way its best to. Find and pick up things from guys on here learn the markets. Traders come and go all the time. Pros come and go in activity on here dont trust that they will always be around. Be in control and be bullish and learn for yourself. Everyone is paying the same membership fee. Im not getting paid anything to be helping you guys just sharing my stuff we are all in the same boat, of course id be happy for any commissions
but i enjoy this side of trading and getting other to the same end goal as i have. Im prime example how how to use the forum and get the best out of it and become full time from it.Good luck with your trades, see celtic are losing right now so hopefully posting this will cheer me up if people appreciate the post and get something from it.
Excellent post as always, Darri.
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@ben-dobie thanks mate, always good to keep the house happy
Just looking back the following pros and tipsters post found in the POSTS tab in description links nicely with this post. Iv added this one to the posts for futures reference and so new traders can see this as we go along. Still quite busy despite posting on here and wont be looking to get involved in live trades for a while, up considerably for the month in the bank, using the stakes we have. Looking to do an update on the beginners bank series this blog is focused around since the covid break. In a really strong place and a stake increase is just a few trades away. Enjoy the rest of week lads.
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@darri Hello mate great post ..... I only started using a trading plan a few weeks ago despite all the good advice on here form the pro's to have one....it's worked wonders for me in my ability to control my urge to trade everything, instead now I 90% just trade my own filter coupled with what you post and some of the BTC late goal posts if they aren't on my own filter but present an opportunity. It's changed the way I look at everything and has certainly cut down my screen time and tensions with the Mrs which is most important of all ha ha
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just thought i should post something on here too after posting on dans blog earlier. Juts a small tip for new traders who find it hard to stop themselves with FOMO when using a forum like this.
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write a trading plan: its harped on about all the time by the pros and especially on this blog. In this plan write down the match, your entry price and exit if its a traded strategy, what i mean by this is it can be your minimum you would be happy to accept. ONLY DO THESE TRADES. If they are from a filter or however you find your games, get them in place well before KO and have the plan ready.
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Write the time of each trade: this is hugely relevant to the post and fomo. If your strategy is a 2nd half goal game and it kicks off at 2pm say in germany then write down that you will look at the game come 3pm. This will help manage your time and make sure your at the screen less, which in the early days helps avoid you trade hunting and looking to see what others do. In between these times log off from the forum and betfair go do something completely different.
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Execute your trade first: i used to get suckered into following all the pros on here and trade when i saw them post. Doing this leads you to being at risk of jumping in when they have a bad run of games. STOP THIS. To do this i would instead wait until i have a trade active in the markets before i log on here. That way when i see someone post a game to trade i already have a game active so dont feel like im missing out on trades or potential profit.
These little tips will help counter the FOMO element when trying to develop your own trades. I have always said on this blog develop your own styles and its why i actively help people build their own filters. You knowing the ins and outs of our own strategy is so powerful long term. Im showing you exactly how to build a filter and strategy from scratch in the FHG project. Using this same method you can apply this to any strategy you ever think of. I know itll sound weird because i post my own trades so sounds counter to what im gonna say but id almost encourage people not to follow others. Only once you have your own trading strategy setup should you look to maybe add things from other members. That way you have an idea of how the markets work, what kinda profit per strategy you need/want, and most importantly you can see so clearly the good and bad strategies that get posted all the time.
Once you have faith in your ability you will have less urge to jump on others trades. I dont trade any of the posted trades from any member but i still like to see ideas and what type of trades people are doing. I find this to be the best way to use the forum.
Not everyone on here is a pro regardless of how well presented their stuff/data is. I wish there was some way of showing who is and isnt without crushing egos or upsetting them. This is a place to learn not to just copy from. Use the forum the way its best to. Find and pick up things from guys on here learn the markets. Traders come and go all the time. Pros come and go in activity on here dont trust that they will always be around. Be in control and be bullish and learn for yourself. Everyone is paying the same membership fee. Im not getting paid anything to be helping you guys just sharing my stuff we are all in the same boat, of course id be happy for any commissions
but i enjoy this side of trading and getting other to the same end goal as i have. Im prime example how how to use the forum and get the best out of it and become full time from it.Good luck with your trades, see celtic are losing right now so hopefully posting this will cheer me up if people appreciate the post and get something from it.
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@darri Fantastic, sounds amazing
I have set the filter up today so from today will be tracking alongside you! We shall see where this takes us! -
@daniel-cooper hi mate, first batch was market overview seeing what happens, 2nd batch (current batch) is optimising the filter using the first batches data. So yes still data collecting, waiting to reach 100 games of this new version of the filter to see what kind of strike rate we are getting and see if the tweaks we made have improved our strike rate (so far yes massively). From there we will know what odds we are minimum taking and can start looking to track our odds range we are after and move onto the sexy stuff like profit and loss. Whole test here is to show people to stop theory based trading and start using data to guide decisions. Most rush this part im trying to show how i think it should be done.
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@Darri are we still in the data collection phase of the current batch for the FHG project?
