The road to full time
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Excellent posts Darri. I am trying this month (sept) to be strict and stay on plan. So far though losing. Seems that I only get matched on the trades that lose and the winners happen before I get matched. Should I consider lowering the acceptable price or stick with it. They are winners, just seems that I am only getting matched on the ones that dont win (as no strategy is going to be 100%).
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Also i often find those that stick to the plan for a whole month without veering into others trades, chasing etc are pleasantly surprised at their results. If your always veering into other things it becomes impossible to measure your progress. Yes profit and loss is all that matters but you need to be consistent with your results. No point in trading if you take a few risks with big stakes or big recovery trades. I you dont believe me paper trade and record every trade that was on the plan. I bet they perform better than expected and better than your risky trades. There is a reason the pros are only sticking to their own stuff. Dont see them jumping on others traders trades regardless to how good or dead cert they make it sound. Only you know how good a trade opportunity it presents use these next 2 months to improve this part in time for when the main seasons are up and running with enough games of data for them. This is the perfect time to be asking questions on the forum getting in detail replies from the all the full time traders.
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I said in the last post this past week will have been a huge test for new traders in how they keep discipline with very few trades to choose from. You do not need to be trading every day or even every week. Stick to the less is more and make sure every selection can be backed up. Always my thought process is to be in a position when i can back up my trade 100% so every base is covered. Think of warren buffet at that AGM. Hundreds of people asking him questions and he knows the ins and outs of everything his company has done. You need to become the expert of what your doing. Thats why i always say master one at a time and then move on from there. STOP rushing. Im a boring always saying this recently but its 100% true. There was no need for anyone to trade this last week. Yet i know from my past that there will have been loads of newer traders trade hunting and its never a good mindset. Stick to your filters and selection process dont go veering into uncharted waters when your just learning.
Anyway also keen for people to post questions on this blog if you want them answered or would like a second opinion on something, everyone who has asked me for help before will know i try my best to give you the correct advice. If you have that urge to go off your plan then post on here and remind yourself not to.
Tomorrows trading watch list :
SHG:
Kawasaki vs Kobe
Kashima vs Sendai
Kashiwa vs G-OsakaFHG:
Tokyo vs Yokohama
With the new season incoming please take the time now to get back into a good pattern to your trading. get the basics right first before trying new things. Im a full time trader yet only trade 1 type of strategy currently since covid. I really hope new traders get this lightbulb moment of less is more, anyone iv ever helped will have seen this reward and hopefully when others post on here asking for help they can tell them the same, quality over quantity always wins. Its better to not trade than lose a chunk of your bank from guessing on a trade or taking too big a risk. By doing it the right way over the course of a month you will have done far better for your bank and you will have learnt more about yourself as a trader from it. Win/Win.
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Noticed a fair few people have been reading the FHG project. I hope its a good insight into how i go about trading and finding good strategies. Its been asked a few times, but please read each update. Update 1 brought up a very relevant point to what been discussed elsewhere, people give up on strategies all too easily. Its not a bad trait or something negative its just part of the trading process i think you just have to adapt to in time. I used to be like that too if its not looking good after 10-20 games bin it and try something else. However one thing has always been a good habit of mine is see things through. Its easier when you have already got a solid strategy allowing you to go test other things because its the ones you test thoroughly that you reap rewards.
What i mean by the last part is you actually allow your data tracking to breathe. Stop putting pressure on a filter or strategy based off of first impressions. Very few people manage to find a golden nugget from their first attempt at the stats software or from a strategy. It normally takes a few rounds of testing to keep tweaking it to make it better. One of the common mistakes i see is people ramming the filters with criteria. This is why people are giving up because they are trying for the finished product too soon and basing it off of opinions. This is the whole point to why im doing this project for everyone to follow. You can see all the stages im doing allowing the data to collect instead of binning it. Think of businesses they go through many creative steps before they launch their product or service, you should do the same. Imagine they just binned it after a few testers said it was rubbish. Im sure apple went through some dodgy reviews. Instead they tweaked it to match what people wanted, in our case we tweak in relation to the data so we get better results.
Think of building a strategy the same way successful businesses do. Market research, product/service optimisation etc these are all the stages you should do in your own strategy as this is your own personal business and each strategy is what grows your business.
This just keeps reverting back to this whole notion of rushing. People trying to rush getting new strategies etc. There is no need to do this. Its been said before but stop letting opinions rule how you trade. Use the FHG as an example for every type of trade you want to do. Build your first batch from a marker overview, let that then tell you what to look more into. Then on the next tweak your filter to improve it. Then just keep going through batches of testing until you become happy with it. While it sounds like common sense and it kinda is these things go out the window far too quickly because people rush things. Its taken us what 3 months to get to this stage of the FHG project, there will have been many people who have given up by now as they become impatient. Keep your head on and let your testing build up and fully breathe. Once you take emotion or opinions out of your trading you will start to prosper and become consistent, consistency is the key asset we all aspire for, in football it wins leagues and more importantly it keeps the best at the top, its the same in trading.
I hope the process using a live example is helping. Please ask questions on it while it is my idea and filter i want it to be focused around the community of people who read my thread to benefit from. Its not just to be copied from but adapted to how you want to use them. Its more about the process than just adding another strategy for everyone. I hope that message comes across well.
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@daniel-mills awesome buddy! While i agree with what some of the guys said on the football thread regarding how difficult a market it is most of what they said could be argued to be opinion rather than data driven facts. I prefer to back any post up with a bit of data. Thats why i gave everyone the filter and have been doing running updates on how they do. Im not basing it on opinions just letting the data show me how i should trade them. Test 1 was market overview and test 2 is filter optimisation. So far its going well, but as with any test posted on here we will have to wait until be start putting money on before we can begin thinking long term profit. I find it easy to find a filter, most people post awesome results but seem to lack transitioning it from a filter to strategy im hoping to help by using this as an example, instead of me just doing a post on it a real life example will be easier to understand.
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@darri interested to see your results over the next few weeks on FHG's. I'm taking a break on them after a bad few weeks trading them, from these posts and your one on the main thread i can see where it might not have worked out for me this month. Will be taking notes!
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Next round of games for my filters is Wednesday so ill be back then, September is a big month for the beginner bank journey with the stake increase. Already doubled our bank and really it should have been more. If we can keep this up we could be in a really good position come the end of this year. Few reasons for that, at this rate of bank growth we will start snowballing and we should have the introduction of 2 new strategies. One being the FHGs and one of my own personal tested strats. This again will snowball but the whole point of the way im building like this is to show people its possible to start with a small bank, build with one main strategy and then how to gather momentum. Been a good start.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
With no sign of the stats software updating in time for the games today, done the south korea and japan manually. Below are the games that are on the SHG filter.
SHG filter:
shimizu vs kashiwa: nishizawa/olunga
yoko vs kawasaki: both juniors/damiao
pohang vs daegu: itjutcenko, sang woo/cesinhaFHG:
Yoko vs kawasakiI might get involved in the internationals today never really had much time last night to get involved. Just having a chill weekend before the busy weekends resume.
nice and easy day today. Just another game added to the data collecting and goals flying in on the games we had picked. Just be careful PLEASE to not go over hunting in the internationals if you are a newer trader. They are a opportunity but they are uncharted waters for some and without a good level of experience it might lead to bad habits. Might just be a weekend to ease off a bit and watch how they work. Nothing wrong with that. I will post if i spot any i like, but thats because im quite confident in my selection. This will be a good test this weekend for peoples discipline. Just remember that normal service resumes on thursday so there isnt a need to rush to find games, so i wouldnt worry if you just have a weekend off. Id rather trade nothing than risk losing in games iv not traded before.
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@martin-walker to look for games for the filter all we need to look for is 8/10 2nd half goals, 4/5 home scored 2nd half and 4/5 2nd half goals in away games. I use flashscores as you can then go into home and away games. Should only be one FHG mate
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@darri i managed to find some fhg manually but where did you find the stats for the shg filter?
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With no sign of the stats software updating in time for the games today, done the south korea and japan manually. Below are the games that are on the SHG filter.
SHG filter:
shimizu vs kashiwa: nishizawa/olunga
yoko vs kawasaki: both juniors/damiao
pohang vs daegu: itjutcenko, sang woo/cesinhaFHG:
Yoko vs kawasakiI might get involved in the internationals today never really had much time last night to get involved. Just having a chill weekend before the busy weekends resume.
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@martin-walker its weird im not sure if covid schedule has tinkered with the updates etc, this rarely happens during the main winter leagues. Its not really an issue for this week as very few games so could manually do them but hopefully its not a long term thing as would be a pain for when the main leagues are back up and running. Its only recently started to do this. Hopefully itll update in time
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@darri japan not even showing on my stats software. I never know when to write my plans anymore
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Just checked the stats software to see for games tomorrow, dont think its done its update yet, not showing any games in japan or korea for tomorrow yet, so will check back later on and post the games up as will be an early start if there are any qualifiers for the japan and south korea games tomorrow.
Like i said ill pop back on later tonight if any of the ints take my fancy but i may just enjoy watching the scotland game tonight :scotland: all sheets are up to date too
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perfect thanks lads! Nice winner
the goal odds on this game from the start looked good, normally a game that starts with ov 0.5 goals = +1.10 is going to have decent odds come 60-65 mins -
1.66 at 61 mins
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@darri said in The road to full time:
I will be away most of day so just posting this now so that i can have a proper sleep in the morning tomorrow.
Trading watchlist: TOMORROW
SHG filter:
sanju vs suwon : moon seon min, oh se-hun
Lets get this back to trading and ill make sure to keep personal messages and rants off the blog, i appreciate the comments from others who like to read/support and happy to continue within the community, if that means i have to cut down how much help i can provide then that has to be. Lets just move on and not let a few spoil it for everyone
if anyone can tell us what price was at 60-65min i would be grateful from the betfair graph i can see it was at least min entry of 1.53, hopefully a few of you managed to set that up with a lunch time trade.
Sorry can't help, I placed it as a "Set and Forget" trade at 50 mnins at odds of 1.53 whent the odds we're around 1.4
Nice win though thanks
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@darri said in The road to full time:
I will be away most of day so just posting this now so that i can have a proper sleep in the morning tomorrow.
Trading watchlist: TOMORROW
SHG filter:
sanju vs suwon : moon seon min, oh se-hun
Lets get this back to trading and ill make sure to keep personal messages and rants off the blog, i appreciate the comments from others who like to read/support and happy to continue within the community, if that means i have to cut down how much help i can provide then that has to be. Lets just move on and not let a few spoil it for everyone
if anyone can tell us what price was at 60-65min i would be grateful from the betfair graph i can see it was at least min entry of 1.53, hopefully a few of you managed to set that up with a lunch time trade.
I got matched about 58 @ 1.55
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@darri said in The road to full time:
I will be away most of day so just posting this now so that i can have a proper sleep in the morning tomorrow.
Trading watchlist: TOMORROW
SHG filter:
sanju vs suwon : moon seon min, oh se-hun
Lets get this back to trading and ill make sure to keep personal messages and rants off the blog, i appreciate the comments from others who like to read/support and happy to continue within the community, if that means i have to cut down how much help i can provide then that has to be. Lets just move on and not let a few spoil it for everyone
if anyone can tell us what price was at 60-65min i would be grateful from the betfair graph i can see it was at least min entry of 1.53, hopefully a few of you managed to set that up with a lunch time trade.
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@darri I would advise you and the group to contact me & Martin individually and raise your concerns then we shall handle it.
I would say the best way to do this is via email [email protected]
