The road to full time
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@darri said in The road to full time:
So while its look like a busy day today, it really shouldnt be! Most of the leagues that are in action today are only just starting. Please for anyone that follows this dont trade leagues this early. Its something i feel quite strongly about and have said many times on this blog. Last seasons data for me in void and shouldnt be taken into consideration. Its why all my filters typically have the input of at least 10 games played current season. Please start adding this to your filters. If your making trades purely from the filters providing you these games then please make this change. Just saying this as i have no trades personally today and would encourage people to be extremely careful with opening rounds of leagues, its been highlighted both on this blog and iv highlighted it on the football thread, this being the first day that most of the leagues are back.
Just to add to what Darri has said, there is still lots of Summer Leagues football where teams are match fit and "surprises" are minimised.
Only trade the Summer Leagues for the next month or so.
Trading leagues too early is a mistake I've made. Remember, the Winter leagues will be running until May; you won't miss anything by waiting a bit. -
@daniel-cooper said in The road to full time:
Just backed a SHG in Sangju - both teams have just subbed key players on
Game livened up but has now gone stale! Final chances, not looking like it was meant to be...
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Just backed a SHG in Sangju - both teams have just subbed key players on
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So while its look like a busy day today, it really shouldnt be! Most of the leagues that are in action today are only just starting. Please for anyone that follows this dont trade leagues this early. Its something i feel quite strongly about and have said many times on this blog. Last seasons data for me in void and shouldnt be taken into consideration. Its why all my filters typically have the input of at least 10 games played current season. Please start adding this to your filters. If your making trades purely from the filters providing you these games then please make this change. Just saying this as i have no trades personally today and would encourage people to be extremely careful with opening rounds of leagues, its been highlighted both on this blog and iv highlighted it on the football thread, this being the first day that most of the leagues are back.
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@eamonn-hogan as long as they both = the same potential profit then it really doesnt matter mate for this strategy, however i often find that because the odds on the 2.5 is shorter that thats where most of the money to get matched is. So as your bank grows will be easier to get matched when your trading bigger stakes by laying. Like i said more advanced strategy. Read the message below because it will test you and iv said this many times before dont just copy the selections try to adapt it to yourself. Its the only way to learn. While im happy to share my stuff and post my picks id still encourage people to develop their own variations and strategies as thats how i managed to turn into a full time trader.
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Please only do the under 2.5 if you are sure you are comfortable with your trading. This strategy will fully test your discipline so if you are doing irrational reactions in your current trading id advise to stay clear. Thats why i labelled it an advanced strategy not in terms of how to place it but because of the mentality you will need to trade this correctly. If you are still developing and learning the markets the best way would still be to stick to the FHG and SHG ones i post up, or use the daily emails. This is me just putting a disclaimer on here because its going to through up questions and newer traders might get frustrated with a strike rate lower than they are used to. As humans we prefer to see winners more frequently even if they dont make as much mone long term. Trading this way will make you have to think about profit per trade and actual proper trading methods to make it work. Just dont be patient with it.
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out of curiosity why do most people talk about laying instead of backing.
I am more prone to back under 2.5 rather than lay over 2.5 but your results and most peoples lay the outcome
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@darri ok and thanks
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@chris-osborne going forward yes thats how i will be playing them
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@Darri If a goal came within the 30 minutes but odds we're above 1.5 would you also be leaving it alone?
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@eamonn-hogan odds dont match the strike rate for after 30 mins
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@eamonn-hogan right now yes but going forward using the new odds range variation ill be looking to bin games that when a goal comes it needs to be below that too. The optimisation stage of this strategy is still going. Take a look at the sheet and then open up some of the games on flashscores to see the times of entries etc and how they match up.
norkopping goal came at 35 mins. game currently 2-1. what reason is it you scrap it at 30?
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So now that i have caught up with most of my other side projects outside of trading i can get back to this again. My main trades will start to get posted again over the weekend. I have the Late goals as my main trades the way to trade them has been discussed on the posts tab at the top for anyone new lcs then ltd. I have now added a set and forget strategy to work away alongside. I have always said my aim for this year was to add to my trading. I think this will help snowball my own trading further.
The aim is to have 1 main strategy LCS/LTD and have 2-3 side set and forget strategies. At current i have now added 1 and this FHG will probably be another. My ambitions to learn a new sport have been hampered by covid. The plan was to continue from the cricket success of last year and try out other formats of the game. I play cricket up here and at a pretty decent level too. So im pretty happy about how i managed to use that game reading into my trading last year. I do believe im at a stage now with my football trading that its robotic and repeatable without stretching myself too thin. The reason for this is iv built it around the main trades. I believe my edge comes from watching the game and my pre match research. Thats why im happy to share my filters.
What i mean by set and forget for those new is placing a trade pre match and waiting for it to be matched but not actively monitoring it. So the FHGs will be really good for this. The under 2.5 strat i posted earlier only requires me to monitor for a small time frame and once placed i move on, also i only wait until i get a notification to enter anyway so pretty automatic. These will compliment my trading.
This will allow me to start working on other things. Cricket is the one im eyeing based on its schedule and how trades work its more a position taking sport or at least thats how i will trade it. This means trades can be active for longer. I also think its easier to soak up value over time on there and find your own edges. The football markets are competitive hence why iv showcased a new strategy.
But im happy where im at right now in trading. Im not boasting im just doing a personal update on how my trading is going. That was the original idea of this thread was to blog how my trading was going. Its only recently become me dedicating it to a more beginner friendly blog. I think ill keep throwing in my personal journey still because end of day im still open to improving its just i make a full time income from this. Wouldnt say im finished article. I just have crossed the beginner line and sharing my advice for peeps to skip those ugly steps every new trader has to face.
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@daniel-cooper dont worry about it mate, dont need to trade everyday the best trades come to you dont go looking for them. Take a look at my sheets can go a few days without any them a couple come and from experience and results we know they will probably be good ones. Think less about a chance missed and more your picking the right games, this filter does exactly that. Keep your discipline and consistency. This is why the pros dont lose banks and always make profits/grow long term, whereas beginners will go hunting for trades, believe me iv blown more banks than id like to admit publicly
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SHG goal game is dead too, 30 mins in and Orebro 2-1 up
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@eamonn-hogan right now yes but going forward using the new odds range variation ill be looking to bin games that when a goal comes it needs to be below that too. The optimisation stage of this strategy is still going. Take a look at the sheet and then open up some of the games on flashscores to see the times of entries etc and how they match up.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@eamonn-hogan im laying when a goal is scored mate im not waiting till 30 for entry thats just the cut off time. So if there is a goal anytime between 0-30 i will enter when that goal is scored
thats what i thought mate. so any goal after 30 gets binned?
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@eamonn-hogan im laying when a goal is scored mate im not waiting till 30 for entry thats just the cut off time. So if there is a goal anytime between 0-30 i will enter when that goal is scored
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@Darri For your under 2.5, you mention waiting until 30 mins to enter after a goal is scored. what would you do if a goal was scored in say first 10 mins?
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Yes mate. I will be using it as it was something I was interested in before
