The road to full time

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Just on the 0-0 subject, iv run this months only to show why long term the 0-0 will move closer to break even:

0-0 56% points made= 1.31
1-1 61% points = 6.95
0-1 81% points = 16.17
1-0 100% points = 4.45

Same a martin small numbers for december only but considering im having a good month its a sign that it could be better had i improved the odds on them. For my strategy to work i need a mind of 58% strike rate compared to my average odds. Definitely trying the ltd approach and now working on that to find out how best to trade it in my time slot.

Edit: huge performance differences so far this month

Matt Wood

Quick question about the 1-0 and 0-1 scorelines. Do you guys know if that makes a difference being the fav winning as oppose to the dog winning?

To my mind I can really understand why the % would be higher if the dog is winning, since the fav will be looking to take control.

Martin Walker

@darri thanks, gonna look into maybe tightening up on some 0-0 selections

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@martin-walker nice work fella! keep that up!

Martin Walker

Ive run a similar analysis this morning.
0-0 64%
1-0 75%
0-1 62% this is low due to a mistake on my part. Jumps to 70+ without that
1-1 76%
Any 75%

This is this month so not a huge number of games but enough to get a good idea of how things are going.

Points made 16.57
Average odds 1.79

A cracking month so far and no need for drastic changes but seems my 0-0 is bringing the strike rate down aswell. Still profitable but wondering if theres anything im missing on the 0-0s

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This is so good
Thanks for not sleeping

Alastair Todd

@darri This is excellent stuff and very helpful indeed for the very much less experienced 'traders' (not sure I have qualified to call myself a trader yet!) like me. Thanks Darri.

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@matt-wood actually someone messaged me asking about that the other day, no i dont plan to do that. I prefer keeping everything the same and easy to manage/measure. The over 2.5 scores ill be avoiding so no need to think about them, but the 0-0s are in profit but all im trying to do is maximise it. Im already max staking 4% so if i can find a way to get that on the ltd too that would be ideal. Im quite an aggressive trader at times. Having different stakes for the same strategy would play on my mind a bit and make me feeling a bit too defensive. Nothing wrong with the theory of doing that tho mate just the individual trader preference for me.

Matt Wood

@darri

If this is the sort of post that happens when you are not sleeping, I hope you dont sleep Seriously though great read and immediately showed me a way to improve my trading spreadsheet which should help me in the future.

Would you ever consider weighting stakes? So go in heavier on the more successful scorelines and lighter on the less successful ones. I imagine you will say this is over complicating things though, which it is really

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My sleep pattern has returned to student ways as a result of getting up for cricket trading, just cannot sleep and doing all nighters with video editing included. This month is particularly busy. But whilst im wide awake ill make the most of it with early reviews of my late goals strategy.

Alot of people seem to think im purely a inplay and trade as i see it type of trader but there is method behind the madness. So iv been looking at my sheets and while not every scoreline has enough data to completely change things iv noticed a few tweaks to monitor going into 2021.

I typically trade by backing average odds of 1.75 however over the last few months iv averaged 1.80. With a strike rate currently of 64% that means im easily making profits regularly every single month because my min odds for profit on average is 1.58 so a big gap between my average and what my min for profit is (some would refer to this as an edge, whatever term you use matters not all we care is that its better than what i need minimum).

For benchmark for rest here is my current results
late goals: 136 trades s/r= 64% min odds= 1.58

So i started with scoreline analysis: drawing vs not drawing.

Drawing gave= 82 trades s/r= 62% min odds= 1.64 (weaker than benchmark)
Not Drawing= 52 trades s/r= 67% min odds= 1.51 (better than benchmark)

So based on the fact i average +1.75 on average for entry im beating the min by a very profitable margin on both. Looking at this on a macro level there isnt anything id change. But lets go a tiny bit more micro and zone in on those scores.

0-0= 51 trades s/r= 59% min odds= 1.72 (weaker)
0-1/1-0= 38 trades s/r= 74% min odds= 1.38 (much better)
1-1= 31 trades s/r= 65% mins odds= 1.57 (slight increase/same)
other= 16 trades s/r= 56% min odds= 1.80 (weaker)

So while i have a small sample for each scoreline there is a clear sign of what scores are working in line with my current trading. Comparing them to my overall performance helps to see what areas i need to work on. Its no surprise what scores are working better, history has shown these scores are less likely in long run. However iv profited on all scores as all are below my average entry for them. But im wanting to optimise that.

I think to tackle this issue i need to question my entry on anything over 2.5 goals/other. Its currently dragging my results down. But may look to monitor and paper trade these scores before totally ruling out only 16 games worth of data so tiny sample. The main thing im going to look at is improving the odds on the 0-0. To note from today iv made around +10 points/10% of bank profit from 0-0 thats with varied staking as my stakes have increased. So hardly a grumble but long term view i predict my avg odds should be more in line with 1.75 so at the rate im going it might start to only break even.

So i need to counter this before it becomes an issue. I either get better odds to back in the overs market or i try to mitigate by LTD which will mean ill have to track these to optimise that strategy in future. The issue with ltd for me is trading out and also who scores. Even with ltd at the time of game i do it the underdog scores at say 78 mins your looking at big profit still but no where near consistent enough to measure against just lcs at same time. So what i may look to do is trial if ltd and letting it run works/profit per win/and if the profit per win is better on average to my current strike rate. Alot to get thinking about.

This seems a geeky post but i feel iv needed to do a bit of a deep dive and see why im having a better run than i have had previously. With this info going forward i can try to maintain this current spike and keep it going. For rest of this month i will trial it as i have such a good cushion to work with. Maybe this sounds common sense if drawing then ltd but that brings risks and more to measure but if its showing such a better p/l then im a fool for not adding to the profits on the scoreline. Its not as if iv not tried it before i found lcs was easier to manage and i deleted the ltd not long ago but i may need to rethink but ill let data decide that. Time will tell, im try run a side by side test of lcs and ltd on the 0-0 and see what works long term. Also before i was ltd with a view that it was a add on rather than a sole strategy so my focus will be better this time.

So looking at rest of month ill lcs all scores except 0-0 which i will ltd. Ill monitor if ltd works with 1-1 but i want to keep the lcs consistency as i prefer this way than having to trade out on the forever reliable betfair exchange 1-1 is one of those scores that id prefer to keep lcs as results have shown.

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Weirdly busy day today!

Cricket:
had hoped to be trading the stars game this morning but im not a fan of trading the weather markets. Will for tests just not limited overs stuff.
Lpl came to an end today and was a nice trade. Jaffna price went out a fair bit and i just waited for malik to get set. Entered as they regained pace and set a pretty big total. Traded out when price hit just shy of a 2 point swing trade. In hindsight i could have stayed in but that would be more hope than trade. After being unsure about it at first turned into a very reliable tournament. Just got a little annoyed with a few early losses i suppose.

Football:
oddly busy day and coming to do this update happy to come away with a stable break even day on the football. Dont regret a single trade. Id happily get involved with them all. Chances galore and actually the ones that won werent nearly as lively as some of the losers. To come out of a day in good form after losing four trades today is a good feeling and keep the momentum going in december. Loads of games midweek so i expect to have at least another 20 games to add before end of month.

James Woodroffe

@darri was able to lock in some profit today on the BBL match on the completed market match. I think my knowledge of Tasmanian weather and all the time I spent in Launceston doing AFL matches over the years helped. Sorry to hear about the tier change mate.

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with the rise in tier for us up in aberdeen and with weather being its usual self decided to call off tonight, was our last chance to head out for a drinks before xmas but will settle for sober catch-ups next week instead.

End of the lpl today and with an abandoned bbl game means bit of a slow start to today but loads of football for me to look over for tonight. Hopefully carry on the form midweek.

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I want to keep the updates on the cricket to continue as quite honestly its beneficial for me, i know not everyone wants to read about cricket on here. Iv had a really solid start to cricket trading almost matching my efforts on football. Im starting to improve on each individual aspect as each game is traded.

One of the bigger improvements has been my understanding of what price should be at certain milestones. Iv been using a par score approach to my trades especially for t20 and with having traded a good number of games now im starting to see clearer when value is on offer. Added to this i actually feel like im adapting my trading too. While i do use set scores as milestones im caring less and less about the current match situation. In fact im more inclined to not be caring how many wickets have been lost and more on can this team improve this run rate with the batsmen at the crease and those still to come.

Example in this game. Hobart lost cheap wickets. But mcdermott and ingram managed to get set and from then onwards there was almost 9 overs of pure price movement in their favour. And then again in the strikers chase they lost cheap wickets. But carey and weatherald got set and then again price movement for more than 10 overs.

Im reacting less to match situations/trading off gut, instead im focussed on price and par score and who is still to bat/bowl. In fact this is the sole reason i think long term id ideally become more weighted to cricket trading. I think the reasoning for trades is alot more simple. I think the difference as to why some cricket traders struggle is because they are trading like fans. So say england are 3/20 after 5 and stokes comes in, some will just anticipate he will recover because thats how fans think. But trading wise im looking to see how he settles and if i should oppose him or back him to improve the par score.

Now iv had losses and will continue to have as im focussing less on the match situation/expectations but from what im seeing the overall picture of t20s can be done this way. Now as i go into the end of this month with other formats im hoping to find ways to tackle them also. However this is a solid sign for t20s as there are stacks of matches each year for them.

Gonna try be up early for the stars this morning, was great seeing stoinis on the coverage yesterday top lad! Hopefully he can perform well and maintain form. Watching all this cricket having had none myself all summer due to covid is frustrating, desperate to get back out there again.

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A good example yesterday in the wolves game about being not caring once the trade is placed for late goals. Its one of those things particularly when your newer to trading that can cause bad habits but it shouldnt. Iv said this in a previous post but that game was prime for this very issue. Leading upto that trade i was seeing the game open right up, a common thing with end to end games that are going to open up is how big the middle of the park becomes ie the spaces available for the midfielders. Defenders and attackers become less of a pressing unit as before and start to stick to each half of the pitch as they become tired. This creates massively end to end games as midfielders/playmakers start to dictate for both teams.

This happened in the wolves game, players like mount and neves started to dictate the mid. And if you watched carefully players like neto and werner were creating massive holes in opposition defence with their direct running. But this doesnt necessarily mean im finding this an easy goal prediction, it just means a goal is highly likely from both teams. Youll find this more regularly in leagues like belguim and holland were less defence focus/tactics are used and more pressure on attacks.

But back to the main issue which uses this info. If you look at the above, factor in all the usual i talk about too like odds and key players (no jimenez but if you look he isnt the highest goal contributor in terms of goals and assist so not a key player, podence and neto are), this game was showing no reason not to enter with my checklist. And for that reason i entered. But once i entered this then just becomes a number. Whatever happens on the pitch after iv entered does not matter. Iv spent the last 15 mins analysing this game and watching to value up how much risk this trade has. You cannot have a crystal ball and presume anything with football but make as keith sad the other day educated guesses. Now if your then saying thats a bet try think if it more as value betting which is different to punting. I going to be trading hundreds of games over the course of the year, im not getting emotional about one game. Wolves scored in the last minute was this then a lucky trade? it really doesnt matter, at the end of the month when i look at my profits it wont stand out it just part of my trading overall/just a number on the strategy. Martin said in a video not long ago once you have an edge the more games you get on the more money you make, its honestly that simple. To get that edge all i do is the pre-inplay-price method iv drooled on about for the last few months. I think if you can get your mindset less about the games results/each day you can then become more consistent and less jumpy. We see it alot on the football thread people getting upset over individual games, but thats because of that mindset which is why im trying to help guide people to this way of thinking instead.

So for those that trade late goals there are a couple of things to do. Place your trade and not watch rest of game to build this mindset (i do still watch personally but that due to the fact i trade far less games on average to others) or try to turn everything else off mentally and just allow trades to happen. Its like in management of a team/business, you have done all you can to make this a good trade/decision, its then just a measure over a long string of games/decisions to see if you are picking the right type of games/decisions to become profitable over the long term.

I think people get confused when i say trade each game on its merits. Yes do that but only to evaluate risk of a trade, once entered you have done all you can to limit that risk which is what makes this a trade and not a punt you and your mates do at the weekend. Hope this helps, had a member say they struggled with this a bit. I wish i could write just one post and solve everyone's problems with trading but really if you read from october onwards on here thats exactly how i trade every single day iv literally given the blueprint its upto you guys to now pick what parts you like and improve on my weaknesses/things you dont like. Remember to make sure each trading decisions is simple: pre-inplay-price. If those 3 all compliment each other and you have seen no reason otherwise then hop on. It looks hard when i do detailed posts looks like it takes alot of work but its not, its just a skill you develop with watching games and markets, which i think we all can do over time.

Nick Terracciano

@darri I use burn tv it’s costing me £60 a year plus a vpn which I found a deal on think it was £30 for the year I get sky bt sports and more had occasional problems with it but not many if you want more details let me know. Imob is free but found live football to buffer allot but its fine for horse racing

liam willis

@darri thats the plan mate thanks for the help and advice

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@liam-willis great news! well hopefully youll finish 2020 off well and take this new info and way of trading into 2021

liam willis

@darri patience is the biggest thing, only going in on games i was confident a goal was coming and leaving the others alone. taking the less is more approach also felt less stressful so this is me going forward now. The good thing is nearly everytime i entered a trade you would post it on the forum so knowing i was on the right track was a big confidence boost.

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@liam-willis fantastic what changes worked?