The road to full time
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@darri Good post this! Ive recently cut out a lot of my fringe trades out and really tried to concentrate mainly on one filter. Im now looking at different angles within it, testing certain angles, finding a good balance regarding staking, entry points etc and its given me so much more confidence on the trades which is really paying dividends
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@darri thanks for this post Darri, it has hit home! I’ve suddenly let my pre-match research slip the last few weeks, no reason why! Strange - need to get back on track and be stricter with myself for sure! On top of this, I have 4 filters running/paper trading at the moment and I’m going to cut these right back! Will keep in touch on here - another takeaway is not trading when you can’t focus 100%, its been a busy weekend for me in other aspects of my life, probably extra reason why the weekend went tits up!
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@darri this is spot on mate ive spent the last 3 months analyzing and paper trading, i now have 2 strategies im comfortable with which im trading and paper trading others. its only from the paper trading i have found what im comfortable with. one bit advice i can give is work on one filter and from that filter test different strats for example i have a 2nd half filter that is good for a lcs after 70mins but also good for an over 2.5 strategy both of which are profitable. try not to have too many filters going at once cos it can get confusing.
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First bumper weekend for the summer leagues in a while from what iv seen. Whats interesting is then looking to see how thats impacted on people results. From what i see there has been a slight downturn. Iv said this time and time again but really doing the 15 min research before a game can cut out losses upon losses especially at time like this its massively important. Everyone goes through bad runs and if that bad run comes on weekend during a big amount of games its so dangerous.
Please go take a look at the POSTS tab at the top of the blog. I would focus on reading the mastering one and pain=growth. Those 2 are so linked for this topic. There are a couple of things to note overuse of the forum/following, FOMO, trade hunting and overtrading.
People are still over exposing themselves in the filters. Still seeing people getting 10-20 games on the filter and trading them all. Narrow down that selection as best you can. If its a goal based filter look to use the pre match research i harp on about with goalscorers etc. Find out i those players are on the pitch when you enter. Look im all for systematic strats but they long term typically provide a lesser return than a well researched one. Hence why i have been saying LCS/LTD are my main trades and the others are more set and forget making much smaller returns.
The master one post i did which you can find at the top will be the main one here in helping you. I still think people are too eager to learn everything. You wouldnt jump into your job at work and be expected to master everything. You work at each thing individually then get more responsibility as you get better at the job. Its the same in trading. Find one thing you like best, work at it, make it super consistent and high quality then move on to the next thing. I still think the notion of gambling industry looms over this trading. Its still seen as a get rich quick thing because its deemed safer than gambling. Slow and steady works far better. Become master at one strategy that will last your whole trading career. For me it took only a few months of paper trading to see that 2nd half goals was my thing. I then started staking and kept improving it all the time. Im only now confident enough to venture into new strats. Think about it. Right now you have as a beginner probably under £1k in the bank. So staking probably less than £20 per trade. now think when you have a £10k/£20k bank are you seriously going to be putting £200 per trade on something thats not been tried and tested? Use this time to understand the markets. Paper trade for the next 2 months on one good strategy and tweak it till it becomes consistent. Then when the season starts up again you will have a cracking strategy to use full time.
The forum has its drawbacks. People have probably seen the success of others recently and over the weekend they may have had bad results. Follow the advice i have given countless times about finding your own style or strategy because it the feels personal to you it think martin also gave the same advice just yesterday. If you like richards elo comebacks then paper test for yourself. You may spot something that could be improved. Dont just follow, because unless you are doing every trade they post you run the risk of getting involved when they hit a bad run of games.
Trading plans are essential! Please please use them. Dont trade anything that is not on them. This can be negotiated when you have a better eye for value but in the early days just stick to it. How many times during a week has the plan ended up in profit and been hampered by your urges to jump on something else because someone posted it or you think its a dead cert. Your doing this kind of thing now imagine doing it when you have £20k in the bank and blew 3-5% of that from silly trades?!
Think long term guys! Treat this bank as if its your business or if you had £20k of your family money in there. If you cant remain disciplined with that in the back of your mind then really have to stop trading with money for a bit. There is 2 months to go until there will have been a decent amount of games played in the main leagues. Use this time to learn a new strategy from scratch. Just like the FHG we are building on here. The exact same steps has only take us 2 months. If this was another market such as 0v2.5 or SHG we would have had more qualifiers. Get thinking what you have liked trading and work on it till you know the ins and outs. Think of the best traders on here and online you only really see them talk about one style and occasionally another. There is a reason for that and its because they have worked on getting good at only 1/2 good strats. That is all you need. No need to bombard your trading with strats. Thats just a worse version of FOMO. Less is more when it comes to trading from what iv found.
Hope this helps a bit. Bit ore of a general post. Go see the posts tab at the top and read the posts i suggest. See the same mistakes over and over and really want to help but gotta accept that it the learning process and the ones that succeed are the ones who try to learn and adapt and not give in. So giving resources like this will help the minority that will look for change.
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@finn-kristensen anything over 2 points is a solid addition. If you have 2 strats each performing say 4 points a month on average over the year thats a very tidy 8 points a month with very little effort and 96 points a year! id be very happy to use that to build a bank with on its own, but for me these would probably be side strategies Think about the average over the long term not actually what happens each month when deciding. I think people think about the downswings more than the potential profit. Think long term, 2/3/4 points from a strategy might not seem like a lot to someone with a £100 bank but think about that over a year, having something that consistent will look very good when you reach full time level banks. The one thing i would say is dont bombard your portfolio with these aim to have a few compliment your main strategy, inefficiency with having too much to do will also harm your trading.
Strike rates differ for all kinds of strategies to me its about what a strategy averages over a large sample, using the by months example is good but it really is what it averages after a large amount of trades/over the year i just use months in this case to explain things easier. Strike rates are only a stat of your performance, it needs to also combine with your profit/loss per trade. If i asked you now would you take 2 strats each performing 2 points every month for your trading career you going to turn that down? So 4 points a month/48 points a year? so if you had say a £20k bank thats £9k a year as a couple of side strats. Think long term. 2 points is a good base level what youll find with my strats i they typically are higher than that but id still be content if they averaged 2/3/4 at minimum allowing me to grow my bank and focus on my main trading.
Think consistency more than anything else, downswings will be calculated into the p/l of the strat anyway, just make sure your selection is good and not blindly picking strats and hoping they do well, always monitor and improve as you go on. Think using the FHG example im doing on this blog is vital for that mindset and why i decided to do it. Before we even put any money to it we have a good idea of what it will average every month. Once we add it to the portfolio we never stop tracking it or trying to improve it. Hope this helps bud, also gives others an idea as to why too
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Going to be away for the next few weeks, ill post up the fhgs as and when they pop up on the filter the night before. They have been showing so much promise of late im looking forward to actively trading them soon. The beginner bank has almost doubled in size and all strats are in the profit. Really good solid base to wok from and as of next month we will be able to up our stakes to the next level in line with our bank. I have one new strategy that ill do a detailed update on which will become part of my own main trading portfolio. Its an interesting take on the markets that is different to my usual strats. Like iv said i aim to structure my portfolio into LCS/LTD as the main and then have other set and forget type systems working away in background. For them anything over 2 points a month would be a nice addition. Allowing me to focus on the main trades each day. I will log in here to check any updates so feel free to ask questions on the blog or private message anything trading related
Enjoy your time off (providing it's a good time off
). Just a quick question about the 2 points... to me that's below the level I'd be interested in doing since if you're operating at such low profits, it does not take much of a downswing for it to go red. You'd definitely have to expect an extremely high strike rate for it to be worth your time, even if it's an easy set & forget. I am guessing it's a very strict system with very few selections? -
Going to be away for the next few weeks, ill post up the fhgs as and when they pop up on the filter the night before. They have been showing so much promise of late im looking forward to actively trading them soon. The beginner bank has almost doubled in size and all strats are in the profit. Really good solid base to wok from and as of next month we will be able to up our stakes to the next level in line with our bank. I have one new strategy that ill do a detailed update on which will become part of my own main trading portfolio. Its an interesting take on the markets that is different to my usual strats. Like iv said i aim to structure my portfolio into LCS/LTD as the main and then have other set and forget type systems working away in background. For them anything over 2 points a month would be a nice addition. Allowing me to focus on the main trades each day. I will log in here to check any updates so feel free to ask questions on the blog or private message anything trading related
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@daniel-cooper would have been mate yeah, so typically a late goal entry between 65/80 mins depending on the model i talk about in those posts. The first entry is always a lcs the if its still a lively game then i enter another stake either backing another goal or laying the draw if 0-0/1-1
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Ah nuts, 0-2!
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@daniel-cooper just watching the psg game mate hopefully it stays low scoring till later on, but thats a big if with these two. Could be quite a quiet week
Stll not managed to read the posts you suggested! Is this a LCS/LTD type trade you described previously? So, quite a late entry
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@daniel-cooper just watching the psg game mate hopefully it stays low scoring till later on, but thats a big if with these two. Could be quite a quiet week
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Anything else on tonight @Darri ?
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@darri fair enough.. it was a now or never job with time left on the clock. No trade = no lose
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red card mate, i had it queued for 1.9 but then the red came
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@andrew-wooding i dont think the value was there personally
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@andrew-wooding bugger..lol
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Legia v linfield in scope for a LCS?
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@daniel-cooper said in The road to full time:
@darri said in The road to full time:
@daniel-cooper no problem lad, let me know if you have any follow up questions on it, the difference between the wolves game and a normal league game is the btc stats software but everything else is the same. I do plan on doing some videos of trades from start to finish and posting them on here in the future just needing to find the time to do so
I LOVE watching trade videos, seeing it happen is so different to reading a strategy!
I second this @Darri
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@daniel-cooper no problem lad, let me know if you have any follow up questions on it, the difference between the wolves game and a normal league game is the btc stats software but everything else is the same. I do plan on doing some videos of trades from start to finish and posting them on here in the future just needing to find the time to do so
I LOVE watching trade videos, seeing it happen is so different to reading a strategy!
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@daniel-cooper no problem lad, let me know if you have any follow up questions on it, the difference between the wolves game and a normal league game is the btc stats software but everything else is the same. I do plan on doing some videos of trades from start to finish and posting them on here in the future just needing to find the time to do so
