The road to full time
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@martin-walker Thanks buddy! Your on the way to something long term in your approach and please keep me updated on the results as they keep going
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@darri following your approach to building a strategy from scratch taught me so much about trading. Id really suggest anyone struggling gives it a go.
It set me on a path over the last few months that has led to 3 months consistently profitable. I will now spend the next month really examining my fhg and shg to find areas of improvement. I tend to track other things aswell but this has all been dropped to focus better -
@martin-walker just seen your post mate some awesome results. Its all about consistency within the industry. How many times do we see someone break through with a cracking set of results but in 2 months they have vanished off this forum? DONT change too much. For me the things i post or the things i say are all about improving our trading. The biggest thing is early doors when you have say only a £100 bank or even just a £1k bank the small 2/3/4/5% edges dont really have a huge impact on the eye. But im talking long term. When we have £10k and £20k or more full time banks. These edges of doing the research, watching the games etc all add up. It especially relevant to my approach. With the type of odds and strike rates i work with 2/3/4/5% boost makes a enormous difference to my profit and loss. So if your going to be doing it when you get to that bank why not do it now, that way nothing changes and you only improve and grow faster. Imagine you didnt do the research and didnt do the things i said in the last post. Over the course of the year if the edge you gain from it makes you 5% more a month thats 60% bank growth missing. Even with small banks thats criminal to be missing out on
Data is solely reliant on your ability to monitor and manage it. If you dont pay attention to the things i said in the recent post and rely solely on your filter your not optimising it enough, so when bad runs come and they will make sure you have covered all bases, nothing hurts more than losing a trade when you could have done more. You have the base similar to how we built the FHGs now its time to maintain that by including all the things iv said on the blog and link it to your style. The pursuit to always improve is my main drive and i think its a favourable trait in trading. Behave like a pro even with small banks. We are dealing with money and any edge added makes us able to trade another month and keep the process going.
I think there are probably traders out there with better ideas and better filters than me but its the consistency part that makes me stay in the game. My selection process is rock solid and its done by using the pre-inplay-price model and includes everything i said. If i just based it off filters alone i run the risk of having holes in the system. I really want you to succeed because iv enjoyed our chats and while this is a bit mourinho like but really want to nail down that these things help to maintain that.
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@darri my fhg and shg are going nicely without much research or any inplay. I wanted to get them to this point first then see if i could squeeze a few more percent a month adding in the extra work
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Seems to have been received well thanks guys and for the emails too
will look to do a different one every so often, any topics you want to talk about or my opinion on then please ask via on here, private chat or email 
I think its a great idea and will be helpful to many people on here myself included.
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Seems to have been received well thanks guys and for the emails too
will look to do a different one every so often, any topics you want to talk about or my opinion on then please ask via on here, private chat or email -
@martin-walker For the FHGs i would do everything i said except inplay. I dont think you can get a good enough reading that early into a game. That said if you have a FHG thats is later on in the half say 30-35 mins then yes fair enough this can be used but i dont do it that late for FHG im more around the 0-20 min mark for getting matched.
Other set and forget systems should all use the model i used below. Set and forgets are system like trades reliant on your data so yes absolutely must use the model as it evaluates how accurate it is.
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Great post darri. Would you still go through the pre match research for fhg set and forgets
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Getting up early and working on a video project, decided to jump on youtube to try ease myself into the day, came across a video talking about how bookmakers cheat. I watched it and it just baffles me how simple people make things sound. Then i realised i pretty much always put "simple" in all my posts. This annoys me. Its just rich for someone who has experience to say its simple. Its like any job that you have been in for say 2-3 years and done the same task hundreds of times. Scanned the same item, ran the same spreadsheet, filed the same report etc. Then you say to the newbie that its simple when its not in the beginning to someone not yet accustomed to that same task.
What i got thinking of is a bit of a myth-buster series. I was going to ask the btc lads if they wanted to get involved and maybe do a joint series on them. A more specific topic with less rambling or veering off into different sub topics just one thing fully explained. Without the condescending "simple to me" approach. As a pilot for it i wanted to talk about a topic thats the most asked question i get via emails with you guys that i help one to one. PRICE/VALUE.
The easiest way to describe what price you should take is by giving an example. The most generic one is the coin flip. A two way outcome with 50% chance/probability. The odds should be 2.00(evens). So in this case if you back higher at 2.2 or lay lower at 1.8 you will have a long term edge on the markets and will grow. The coin flip is a great example simply because it has little variables. So lets take a football real life example. Lets say you have tracked a strategy say the popular over 2.5 strategy used on the football thread. You have a 67% strike rate which means it has a 67% implied probability so convert this to odds its break even is 1.5(1.52 with commission). So if you can back at 1.7 or lay at 1.3 you will then have a long term edge in the market and long term your bank will grow.
Sounds "SIMPLE" right? This is the part i love and hate. There are far more variables in sport than in a coin toss. So when you see someone post its simple they are just talking about backing higher and laying lower than the probability. But to get the true probability you need to do more than the market price. This is when you realise that there is a reason im posting all these long posts and trying to get people to realise its everything combined. The end goal for everything is all about making you be able to find out the true probability of an event actually happening. So here is the process to help you evaluate what the true probability of an event happening is and its using the much harped on about PRE-INPLAY-PRICE model i always share with you guys.
Historic form is exactly as it says. Its a trend of recent data. Its not going to predict the next game is going to continue in the same vain anyone who tells you otherwise is a joker. But it can help form an opinion on how it might play out. So when you get a game from the filter dont just rely on it. Go take a look at that data. Make sure it has no holes. KEY players who contribute to a teams stats within that season are a major data point you must look into. I like to use an example here. Lazio in serie A. Lazio scored 79 goals. Immobile contributed to a total of 57% to that total. Take him out that team and over half the goals they scored is vanished. Now here is why its imperative, if your basing a trade off of a filter and someone who has contributed 57% to those stats then if he is missing then your data is INACCURATE! I cannot stress and im sorry to keep saying it but this is such a vital data input. There are other variable to data but like i said i dont want to drift and just want to highlight what these are: manager changes, key players, fixtures importance, NEW SEASON data etc (explained in other posts).
With the pre match research done we have then got a better grasp that the data on offer is accurate. This is your number one goal when trying to evaluate the true probability of an event happening thus allowing us to find out what price we should be looking for and in the end see if its a value trade. Now you take this inplay. This is the opinion based part and most often the big hurdle early doors. We all watch a game and can go i reckon there will be another here. We have all done it with our mates. But we as traders are trying to instead forget about everything else and just see if the event we want to happen looks likely. So if we are doing an unders trade is the match a snoozefest, or overs is the game end to end. Dont think about the overall picture of how a game will go. Only go inplay to look for your outcome dont get opinionated about other areas of the game. Key things to look for : Shots on target, Dangerous attacks, Goalkeeper saves and my favourite key chances. The last one is my favourite because you cant rely on the stats to show this instead you use your own eyes to see this. The biggest edge inplay is your own eyes. Everyone else has the same stats but if you spot that your event has a good chance of happening before anyone else you win. Take this and the pre match research and then decide if this qualifies as a game. If it does then you have now nailed this as a game that is holding to the true probability.
Which leads to the most important question and the one most commonly asked "what price should i take?" and its the one question that opinion should be least used. I talked about the ov 2.5 strategy and if you look around the forum or online its people giving opinions. Some saying all kinds of numbers. STOP! Let data decide for you. What i want you to do is for the next 30-40 games on your filter that qualify using all of the above, write down what the average price was at your desired entry. Now once you have that if a price is lower than that next time leave it alone its not value and if its above then take it. This is exactly the way i trade and measure what price to take. Its not from an opinion its from pure data and from tracking results. I mentioned it in my last post. Track each odds range and find the one that presents best value for you.
This is just a pilot of a series id like to do, just want to gauge if you guys like this and if you could please send me any topics you would like added, already got 1-2 from members. I had hoped to do a podcast or a video with these but this can all still happen later on. International break i thought would be a perfect time to start this and maybe do one of these a week in the build up to the main leagues starting back again. Like i said id love to be able to maybe get other full time pros on board to help. Maybe create something as a resource for new traders down the line, as i dont see anyone present a nice compact area of the internet were its easy to access without doing a course or a service. Everyone who is a pro tries to use the its simple approach its not to those starting out and ill make sure to refrain from saying that going forward. Want to provide the best value to people going forward and no im not selling anything just here to share. Hope you like this kind of content.
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just to remind you guys, remember the post i just did about how to actually turn a idea into a full strategy. What i encourage you guys to do is to track the SHG filter using the same method. So track the odds range of 1.4/1.5/1.6 then if its more profitable to be in the 1.6 then keep going and do 1.7/1.8/1.9 until you find the sweet spot between p/l and enough trades. For the purpose of me showing this as a nice bank builder and a lower risk strat im just showing it using odds of 1.53 and within the 60-70 min mark. I think 70 min would be the borderline id go with these odds as from my own data at 70-75 mins id ideally like 1.75 as you can see on my main trading
another couple of games added to the fhg filter, whilst they came very early in the game remember all we are doing right now is data collecting the filter to see how best to optimise the filter going forward and compare it to our previous batch. Seen a couple struggle again today and its the same bad habits of over trading or going against their plan. Its funny because you wouldnt do that at work or whilst driving so why are you going against your rules in trading? Going into the international break i would seriously advise people take the time to learn more of the theory based work and get things in gear for the return of league games. Read through this blog.Make a trading plan and only stick to those games. Log off from the forum until you have a trade live so your not tempted to jump on other things. Do the 5 mins it takes to research key players. Dont overstretch yourself with too many games or strategies to trade. THESE are all the common mistakes that are shown on the forum the last week. More will pop up but i cant emphasis enough how these can all be fixed by focusing on just ONE STRATEGY! The simpler you make your trading the easier it will be to repeat and repeat each day. And we all know consistency is what drives and builds a bank long term not sharp risky moves.
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will also be good for people to see quality over quantity will win, because you can then compare the SHG filter to my main trading. I will be bullish here and say it will be massively different. Still profitable but over the months the main trades will trump it, with less trades.
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A quick note for the malmo game. One of the reasons i want to track this for people is to show data on late goals. This includes time of goals and odds. One thing to note here about the malmo game was odds were awful come 60 mins. I think i saw 1.36. Then come 66 was when it eventually hit 1.53 (entry price) was weak and borderline odds. But what happened between 66-75: 70 the odds reached 1.61 then check the difference at 75 = 1.85. Its within that window of movement that i enter my main trading. I hope to show this more over the coming months of tracking this filter for peeps. Its why i love entry of late goals because the markets panic. Albeit this was a losing trade it was a prime example of why you should wait and not base purely of a timed entry.
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@darri I think we’re on the same page here.
I’ve also been an advocate of a plan.
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@ryan-carruthers always better to have a plan of who is key before the game starts tho. There are certain players ie 2nd strikers such as jesus at city but thats why i say goal contribution is key and then seeing who has started. Like i say i think the example i used in the wolves game is a good example of what i mean. Total contribution, check if they are on pitch at time of entry and then execute
Yeah for helping others i just include the key players that way they can then use flashscore/sofascore/club website and see why i chose them.
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@darri no I take into account the stats in relation to what’s actually happening sometimes the stats make it look like that players a key one when they aren’t.
Agreed it’s always the BTC mission!
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@ryan-carruthers good stuff! your post sounded like you only do it when a there is a big difference in key player stats. Always do it, these small things add up.
Hopefully have a decent day for the strats, seen people struggle this month and would be nice to help them finish it off well.
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@darri I always do, I’ve perhaps bored the trading community about it for years lol
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@ryan-carruthers yes like i said the games today have a mix of players with goals and assists, typical of the nordic leagues. If you dont take into account key players in all your games then thats upto you, i always do it. If they are of similar stats i 100% wouldnt dismiss it! Take a look at last few games lineups see from that list who is playing and in form. If your basing a trade off a goal filter and not taking into account player stats then your at risk of not getting the best from it.
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@darri do you have an example to explain this?
If I look at a team and the assist makers are all similar then I won’t really pay much attention to the strength of them. But if there’s a player with say 9 assists and then next player is on 3 then I’ll weight them more.
I’ll then take that information in play and line it up to my original hypotheses. For example Trent for Liverpool if he’s bombing you and down the right without any stopping then it’s lined up.
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@daniel-cooper one thing i would be careful with what @Ryan-Carruthers said is that dont be too literal with what a key player is. Its not always best practise just to choose top goalscorer and top assist. Take some of the games today there is a couple of teams with a mix of players all with similar stats. Make a good judgement of whats the best contribution to your stats. I do stand by that the wolves vs sevilla game in my posts tab is the best way to highlight key players.
however if there is a standout goalscorer and assist it makes your job easy
