The road to full time
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Calling it a day here as getting annoyed on the football thread with certain people so just needing to chill a bitWEEK 3 review:
Cricket:
This time and time again seems to be growing ever more consistent for me. Im really enjoying the t20s and think i may look to prioritise this over any other format. With the tests i got a bit cocky and over confident and paid the price. But saved it with a nice call on the aus bowlers bagging a few quick wickets, yip they won the match pretty much in 1 hr
was only going to stay in for 1 hr until new ball softened. I may look to be more selective with that and may only look for ltd in future as couple of times the odds moved enough so that when my prediction came true it didnt have that much effect on the markets price. Food for thought only traded a few tests and the one i won on was laying the draw so might be a sign.Football:
Up and down week, nice and steady early doors and then a bad end to week. The varaince was always going to happen and return us to our actual strike rate. Its weird how similar the results are to oct and november now, maybe this is the ceiling for this late goal strategy. Time will tell. The only difference is that my staking has changed so even tho results are the same the profits are better.
Changed up my 0-0/1-1 to ltd and early signs looked good until the wee bad run. But looking at the ltd untraded gives me another thing to track. I may look at this more when we get to 50-60 games done. Im sure there will be a few games that end up drawing even with a late goal so be interesting to see what that does to results or if that is only a small difference.
Regardless the risk reward is far better, iv looked to enter the ltds around 3 mins more than an average lcs trade so not huge difference for the better returns.
Really glad i did that analysis this week and could help me progress going into next year.Conc:
im really happy with my trading regardless while we didnt make progress this week even with bad runs we are still countering that with cricket so only 1 point down which is really good for my trading mindset.
I am however debating to be posting live trades anymore. I think i may go the way the btc guys do it and people like alan aswell and just give the list of games im watching instead. I think this might be a better way to do them. That way i can explain/run down what games qualified and didnt like what seemed to be wanted last week. Kinda got annoyed at some people on the forum and i shouldnt be so i may just stop posting live trades. A very popular trader has already stopped posting and i will too i think. When people are critical its not always constructive or helpful. One reason for that and another its sometimes a bad feeling when days like today for example you have a bad day and i know fine well others have traded them just because i have. I know we are all accountable for our own decisions but its plays on me that i used to do that so i know there will be others doing that on my ones now. Im not being big headed im just pre concerned for others. Yes its great when you post winners and if you have followed everyone of my posted trades you would be up 40%/40 points, but i know not everyone picks the winners or can follow every single one of them to get same results. Hopefully you can understand my point. I want to be seen as less of a tipster and more of someone who can help build your own strategy.
So while im back tracking on my original post/opinion of lists i think i will do that now on as itll be easier and more insightful than just live posts.
This 1.5 shg is flying in testing and will continue to update when that reaches 100.
Sorry to be taking a back seat on the forum now but this is my job and i want to be less stressed out when i sit down to trade. Ill always be here to help and will continue as normal just without the live trades. -
@daniel-cooper scope 5, current season only too bud sorry
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@daniel-mills lovely trade there mate
its not risky if you believe that your long term going to beat those odds/strike rate. That for me was a good trade if lisbon are on top and all the criteria for your entry are met then you absolutely should be trading that. The risk is how you manage that long term ie bank management when losses come but cracking trade and you use those odds it well worth at least tracking to see if it works. For me its no different to lcs on the 0-0 its just seeming like way more bang for buck for the exact same trade, the reason lcs is good is that you can place then just leave it (tho im thinking ltd could be better this way too) as i said before maybe i was too comfortable with how it was all going cause it was profitable but really iv missed out on a heap of profit. -
cheers!
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Not something I was tracking, but looked like a good opportunity to LTD Sporting Lisbon v Farense @ 1.68. Lisbon, top of the table and at home with their top scorers on the pitch. Slightly risky as they had a low number of shots on target, but shedloads off-target. Lisbon won a pen and scored just before full time so, that was sweet.
Doing a LTD 78-80 mins in at 0-0 netted nearly twice the amount I would have got doing an LCS and soaked up a couple of losses from earlier in the day. Nice one Darri, wouldn't have tried this method without your post.
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overall games played = >10
H2 ov 0.5 = > 80%
Home scored H2 = >80%
away 0.5 h2 = >80%TOP Leagues: australia, austria, belguim, china, croatia, czech, denmark, england (championship also), france, germany (bundesliga 2 also), italy, japan (only games from 8 am onwards), holland, norway, poland, portugal, scotland, slovakia, slovenia, south korea (only games 8 am onwards), spain, sweden, switz, turkey
Im away to start testing a variant of this after new year so may get updated
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Lads, I've gone and deleted Darris SHG goal filter, the staple one he shared a few months back, over the last week or two without realising! I was only tracking it, not trading, hence not realising sooner! Does someone have the criteria????
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@james-woodroffe these are the 1.5 shg games today for tracking
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@james-woodroffe yep all 4 of them on the test filter, remember tho its a test just using the 1.5 stat to get a overview
Yeah mate, I know I was just checking there weren’t others.
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@james-woodroffe yep all 4 of them on the test filter, remember tho its a test just using the 1.5 stat to get a overview
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@Darri I see 4 top flight matches from my 2HG filter that qualify for the 2H O1.5 test
Augsburg
Waregem
Venlo
Utrecht
Is this correct mate and do you have any others? -
@james-woodroffe i predicted a few quick ones not the whole game done in 1hr
was great to watch, as a quick myself was a pure masterclass from the trio this morning -
@darri when you thought damage early doors in the test match by the Aussies I guess India all out for 36 seemed a little fanciful
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@Darri this is great mate and brilliant how you’re always looking at ways to improve along the journey. I was a bit scattered today unlike you my brain shut down today mate and I probably actually no I definitely know I should have skipped those FHG’s and just focused on what I had re the 2nd half trades. Would have been a good day had I just stuck to the cricket and 2HG but ended being ok.
Nice work mate learning heaps and 2021 can’t come quick enough to put everything into place over a full year. -
@gary-brown was on the watchlist already and shortlisted for the 1.5 project filter we are all doing. But yeah nice find for yourself there mate dont worry if i get on it or not your spotting cracking games with good value, keep it up
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nice my post pointing out the decent odds in Spain might have caught your attention mate. I see you got a decent win on this one.
If it helped then i am glad as you help us all ten fold.
Keep posting Darri it really helps.
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Sleep deprived making me do better posts and also better tradesCricket:
Went quite heavy with this. Using the mindset i talked about earlier in month about being more flexible with cricket staking has been quite refreshing. When a trade goes against im not battling the markets but just waiting for another good entry. Pakistan battling back to a decent total but not one NZ wouldnt get. So at every stage the markets didnt back this i entered. Did lose a few wickets late on which could have been worse had Pak had a full strength bowling but they didnt and was an easy win for NZ and me.
Im actually on a red screen in the test going into day 3 but its a deciding day so plenty of chances to get on board a few trades. I back Aus quicks to do some damage early doors but any sort of margin like the one india have right now could be match winning as both teams are super even in quality.Football:
WOW! Bit early to be excited but monster wins today by changing how i go about the 0-0s. It could have been even better had i been disciplined enough to keep the profits from the dortmund game untouched(1-1 entry) i think i may look to enter the ltd as i did today which is typically only a few mins wait longer than my lcs in a bid to get far better returns. I think the wait makes for a better balanced risk reward ratio. Hopefully its not a batch of luck and this data continues to prosper.
So basically from what i saw with the union berlin game for example when the dog scores before 80 im looking at same returns as a typical lcs and if fav scores im capitalising on based on my time of entry. -
@darri Yep I thought exactly that when watching that game
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@matt-wood all my 1-0 and 0-1 trades are when the fav or the team i predict will score 2nd half are down. So yes motivation is a bigger factor than most for lcs
this played out in the galatasaray game so its a good example
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@matt-wood all my 1-0 and 0-1 trades are when the fav or the team i predict will score 2nd half are down. So yes motivation is a bigger factor than most for lcs
