The road to full time

[A Former User]

Super solid day and with only a few trading days left makes december a cracking month

Football:

man utd vs wolves: been trading a lot of man utd games of late and well. This game is exactly the type of game i prefer to see. While wolves could have done with jiminez, man utd attack is arguably one of the strongest in the league so it made more sense to focus more on how united played as stronger team. They linked up well and i felt pogba and fernandes for yet another game bossed that midfield. It got a bit tight near the end in terms of my trade winning but plenty of attacking intent and pressure in and around the expected goal area. Lovely fantasy prem points too for rashford scoring and fernandes assisting (also 2 key players) i know im harping on about key players but the reason i keep posting is because it keeps happening so take note.

Others from list today:

southampton - snoozefest, only 1 good chance in the game around 84 for benrahma but that would have been after my entry so NO trade for me
west brom - goalfest, leeds scoring far too many to get on, good to watch tho
norwich - pen came just too soon, was waiting for literally 3 ticks and id be on that, norwich look very good and a cut above most in this league. If they do go up hopefully they can adapt.

Cricket:

MEL vs SYD
Thank you HOLDER! Having put faith in the sixers chasing that total down and by sticking to my par score approach managed to come away with a healthy green in this game. While im normally out by the 19th over today i hung in as i was in an unfavourable position. But with only 6 needed from 2 and holder at crease i felt they would at least get a draw. He ended up smacking a comfortable 6 and finished the game and won my trade. This cricket profit is getting ridiculous, my match reading and judgement is really taking shape.

Aus game was already done in earlier post this morning.

Both sports are both performing well this month and while its been a weird year in general, my trading has gone from strength to strength. Loving this momentum.

[A Former User]

SHG list 29/12:

southampton
west brom
man utd
norwich

could have had levante too as its a filter pick but i dont like the form of either team at present so hard one to judge, so as my rule is try to find a reason not to trade a game this game falls at the first set of criteria. The ones above dont have that and im actually going to take those inplay and again further see if inplay there is any reason not to trade. If i find no reason not to trade them then we enter and from my previous history of results this tends to make profit long term hopefully this might flick a switch for some looking at how to trade instead of punt or for those struggling to find a way to reduce their filtered picks.

[A Former User]

Football:

only 1 game traded from the list yesterday:

chelsea- felt another goal was coming in that game, the intro of werner and havertz as two attacking options made me further enter. Only really a couple of good attempts but nothing ended up being clear cut. At the time of my trade tho and this is the important part i did feel the game was open enough and ticked all the right boxes and as a trader that is all you can do. You cannot crystal ball it and say exactly what will happen in the next 10-15 mins you just judge on what you have seen.

other games:

everton - called off
mjondalen - crazy game couldnt enter
besiktas - already winning

SHG in all 3 so again dont worry too much about those claiming to have high strike rates SHGs are the most common theme in football.

Cricket:

perth vs adelaide
hard to get a handle on that game. Adelaide got to all the right milestones then faltered and then finished strong. Then the perth innings was a massive collapse. So a weird game in general. Any team with rashid is always going to be a hard trade even in t20. However i stuck with my process and while i never made big margins i did come away with a small profit, so pleasing that even on weaker days im still adding to my total.

AUS vs IND
Good to be profiting from the tests. Think the other two games are looking way more one sided with the markets backing as expected the heavy pre match favs. However this game was a cracker. With no kohli i reckon alot of people thought aus would go rampant in these tests. I did too, but there is probably a main reason for that and its the lack of runs from smith. India seem to have him worked out and will be interesting to see how he combats that as im sure his quality will shine through at some stage of this series.
Back to the trade. Having posted explaining my way to tackle tests i waited for a good moment in day 3. That came towards the end of the day. Not long before tea india were priced at 1.86, if smith was to go at any stage i felt the rest wouldnt post a big enough score to get them out a hole. Bumrah ended up bagging the wicket and started a small tumble of wickets. I waited till the price was down to 1.04 and cashed out. India have since gone on to win and setup the rest of series.
This is a good example yet again of the impact days 3/4/5 have on tests and why im targeting them more than any other. Its happened in 2/3 of the tests iv traded and also if you look at SA and NZ both have had a pretty big days 3/4 impact the whole tests. I may still look to get involved in the NZ game as its not totally assured yet.

Just a small increase since yesterday but these cricket trades/profits are getting crazy good. Look at my results sheet dec is being a huge jump in the bank. That because we have adjusted to what i now believe to be correct staking for each of my strategies. Maximising when i can and limiting losses too. Hopefully this trend continues into 2021 as this month has been a very aggressive bank increase. This will also result in a rather interesting end of year update.

[A Former User]

@james-woodroffe as for odds just checked i got on at 1.67

[A Former User]

SHG list 28/12

chelsea
everton
mjondalen
besiktas

These have been going pretty well even better with trading on a motivational scoreline. Hopefully my rundowns are making sense and your seeing why i was entering and leaving games. Even on the losers your still seeing why i enter.

Big next few days as we aim to end the month on a high and really take this momentum into 2021 and end my first year being full time.

[A Former User]

@james-woodroffe no worries bud, just sounded like you were annoyed i traded the game and you didnt and then posted your trades as defense but really iv already said to you im delighted for you and its why i keep in touch to see how your doing. We are going to tackle cricket in 2021 together and both grow in the sport mate we are also going to have different approaches and opinions at times but its all healthy if we keep it constructive

in terms of that game it ended up not being so one sided. They blitzed to a good score in the powerplay, but wickets came crashing down. Im not sure if odds reflected Brisbane being on a poor run i think it was due to the fact they would be into the tail after one more wicket and at that stage people would start to back HH i reckon. For me i wanted to take on that and instead go heavy on Brisbane. But if you take my par score they never once were below it and with 4 wickets left i felt it was more comfortable than market suggested. No faulkner for the death was a huge loss for Hobart and could have swung that around, so even more risk was reduced for my entry. All things ticked and had to enter. With ones sided games or perceived ones you have to just wait for the market to panic. When that happens and you feel it shouldnt have you enter. So far that has worked really well for me iv been wrong numerous times aswell on these but so far im being right enough times to make profit long term.

I wish i could just give a formula for it but really, one sided games, if there is a perceived momentum switch when really there is still no reason for it iv been backing. Anything less than 7 an over in the last 5 overs even with the tail is dangerous to oppose.

[James Woodroffe]

@darri mate you’ve totally misinterpreted me. Firstly mate I didn’t trade the Brisbane game but I saw they lost 4 or 5 wickets and was only curious that despite the small chase and needing only 5 an over did you think the price was what you expected when you entered? I was only interested if Brisbane were perhaps shown a little disrespect. I know where you’re coming from man and yes we’ve had this discussion before. It wasn’t a bloody dig mate it was a genuine question. I was busy yesterday in the morning so gave it no time. Apologies again if you thought I was being a p***k I’m just curious about how best to go about one sided matches is all.
I would have thought we’ve built up enough of a rapport to know that I don’t nor would I get on this thread to s**t can or be facetious.
Like I said mate I was only curious as to what kind of price was available and not being a fan boy. Judging by your answer the fact Brisbane are not great was not affected by their price.
No salty mate no need to be just looking at a way to trade one sided matches which you do well with the T20’s. Hope that clears it up mate.

[A Former User]

@james-woodroffe Iv said this to you plenty of times, im trying to come at cricket as less of a fan/player (which is bloody difficult as im both) and more of a trader.

Brisbane won mate so based on your reply sounds like you treated that game from a fan point of view. I saw it from a trading point. I dont care that they are struggling in the comp, they needed less than 5 an over and with 4 wickets and 2 semi decent batsmen and one who is just off a good score i felt it presented a good trade. You have to take your opinions on a team out of trading and base it on whats in front of you. The % play should have been on brisbane and when momentum swiftly turned to Hobart even brian lara said they were now favs but for me Brisbane comfortably get that, other times ill be wrong but time and time again im using the par score method which has now worked for a few months of heavy trading.

NGL your reply does sound a bit salty but please remember im just posting my trades and explaining why. You can always share your trades on your own blog bud, you dont need to try defend yourself. Like i said in that post dont worry what others are saying about your trades unless they are constructive or help, worry only about your own approach. As ruthless as it sounds i dont really care what anyone else is doing with trades im only focussed on my own stuff, dont want especially when im improving on a sport to have someone influence how im trading just cause they have a couple of good trades on the same game, but different strategy. Its the only way to learn long term. While iv been trading cricket for less time i have experience of making trading work in another and just bringing all that discipline onto this now too. And its proving a quick transition and thats what i want to be showing people long term instead of just posting trades.

[James Woodroffe]

@darri nice one bro.
I still find those BBL or any T20 match that’s one sided tricky for entry points as I tend to miss them out of curiosity when Brisbane lost those few wickets do you remember roughly what you were able to get them at before entering? Were you surprised? (Did market overreact cause Brisbane are no good) or was it what you expected?
Nice work re the Aussie test. I laid the draw in NZ at 3.40 and as the wickets tumbled realised i didn’t have to do anything in Melbourne as the lay of Australia had already resulted in a nice green so imagine my mixed emotions when I woke this morning. Great work again mate finishing 2020 song.

[A Former User]

Up to catch some cricket trades today, part of the reason i didnt post these yesterday after the games is because iv got my sleeping in line with the cricket right now

Football:

2 trades done yesterday:
West ham vs brighton: normally wouldnt trade if there had been a goal post 70 mins but felt west ham would put on enough pressure and that both teams would still get chances. One of those game that i only traded based on watching rather than a set plan. Always looking to adapt, cant be so strict with trading otherwise youll miss chances.

Leeds vs Burnley: The plan was to just trade based on leeds needing a goal, with them 1-0 up i was surprised burnley dominated the 2nd half. I entered when Rodriguez came on to add another striker to the team. Th problem with trading with burnley is they are low scoring and stubborn defence. Didnt see that today as they pressed for a goal, so thought leeds with poveda, bamford and harrison would counter them. Didnt happen and trade lost. Inplay dictated that trade to me so probably wouldnt do that trade again if offered.

Other games on list:
genk- didnt like the odds for what the game was offering so avoided
liverpool - already winning
wolves - probably could have traded but logged off in prep for cricket today/missed trade
turkish games had too many goals and a red for entry.

Nice and simple day profits keep piling up this month been a crazy one. Hope a few have managed to follow along with that.

Cricket:

BBL - Brisbane vs Hobart

Hobart posting a below par score and then faulkner getting injured during his over meant they would have to bring in a part time bowler. I was just waiting for my chance to pounce. The odds for the chase were so low, but nothing a few wickets wouldnt cure. Hobart bagging a few cheap ones. Peirson and hazley got settled i got on. With the team only needing 5 an over even with the tailenders batting it should have been easy. Those two managed to see it out and bagged a nice win. When im confident in my approach the flexible staking really allows me to maximise the finishing trades.

Tests still to come and will get on when i see a good opportunity arise. AUS game is setup for a few flip flops with india in driving seat. NZ are flying right now and the SA game is all setup to get on in the next few days.

Could not have asked for a better end to the year iv rattled through my milestones and ill be able to be moving up from a £10k bank to a £20k quicker than i predicted. Been a decent month and i really hope people have managed to get on the trades i posted. Obvs not posting them now and just showing lists but thats because i dont like defending my trades to people or for people to just call me a punter (minority spoil it for the majority) these people dont get restrictions because its their opinions so im not fussed about posting, was doing it to help people but now im moving this way and explaining so i think this way works better anyway as id rather help long term than just a short term fix of money.

EDIT: the big move came in the aus game today, sat with a lovely green going into day 4 dont worry about other peoples posts or trades work on developing your own approach and build on that, healthy green just by waiting a bit in this test and now just waiting for any other opps to come.

[A Former User]

@james-woodroffe no worries bud, glad we sorted that. Nice to see you have green from past few days, im just focussing on my own approach rather than doing what others are doing. If i just follow along with the forum posts yes i may make money but ill never learn my own takes which could be better and im very much someone who likes to find positions for big moves rather than in and out trades built up over several days. If you want me to look over the past few days i do feel that i couldnt be so active as you guys are on that thread doesnt mean you or i are wrong we are just finding our own angles. Im not going to compare which of us is having a better few days because we are both at totally different stages of trading and both trading these differently, just focussing on my way which im always adapting too. I did it with t20 and now working on making the same progress with the other formats.

[James Woodroffe]

@darri all good bro. Might be the late nights and the fact I’m pretty much along with 1 other the only one posting on the cricket forum.
Just misconstrued perhaps from my point of view. Read it as no chances in the tests yet and hunting if involved. Sorry mate obviously that’s not what you meant just read it wrong after 2 very good days.

[A Former User]

SHG list for 27/12:

Genk
leeds
west ham
liverpool
wolves
gaziantep
basaksehir

All english games are on the list not because of stats but because of the schedule and all being on tv. Ill still be looking at whats qualifies as usual. I contemplated leaving out west ham but since ill be watching it anyway i may aswell add it to the list. Just prefer showing you the full watchlist rather than pure filter picks (none of the England games are on any filter past 2 days)

[A Former User]

@james-woodroffe for some reason you seem to think im talking about yourself? never mentioned your name at all bud, not sure why your taking offense. Im merely stating my own personal point of view as to how im going to be trading cricket compared to what i see others doing. Im not wanting to be so active and instead take long term positions for big swings. The fact your taking offense may be down to the fact you have been active, but we cant all trade the same just calm down bud am i not allowed to judge my own trading angles? Just cause someone goes against the norm doesnt mean they are wrong and i think i proved that with the late goal approach. Just about finding my own take on the cricket markets and posting on here incase anyone else is looking at same things, sorry if that goes against how you feel but im never one for doing the same as others or what the norm is in the markets its where i find my best edges, doesnt mean any approach is right just my own opinions.

[James Woodroffe]

@darri interesting definitely wouldn’t say been hunting trades just cause it’s on tho.

[A Former User]

@james-woodroffe already stated how ill be trading them in that post bud

[James Woodroffe]

@darri that’s an interesting take in regards to the test matches and active traders only taking small amounts and the early stuff not worth getting involved in. What do you mean by early stuff as both the test match in Melbourne and Centurion have offered plenty of opportunities to build solid green over the first 2 days. I’d be interested to hear what direction you’re looking at trading the tests as there have been ample opportunities in two of them already.

[A Former User]

Nice return after the xmas break, havent been that active on the cricket or even in the football just waiting for the best opportunities, i stand by what iv been saying for ages you dont need to hunt for trades just wait for them to come. I think people are over trading cricket and football just because they are on, instead if a game doesnt present an opportunity then it doesnt matter just move on. Thats been a big change for me with cricket and is something iv brought over from the football markets. Not forcing trades just cause there is a test match on or just because others are posting, im focussed on my plans and my judgement.

Football:
leicester was a cracking trade. If you look at my entry it was around the time cavani came on. I think once he is fully upto speed and we come out of the xmas period he will be a regular first team starter, brings so much to that attack. What i was seeing was huge gaps between attack and defence for both sides and i did a post saying this is what im looking for in even contests. This tends to bring out an end to end game and opens up nicely for a goal. Cavani with the assist and fernandes with the goal, thats been a few consecutive trades now where the winning trade has been because of a key player research and i hope this pattern is helping people see why its important.

Now ill outline why i didnt enter the rest of the list:

villa: red card
arsenal: too many goals before entry
city: already winning
club brugge: already winning
leuven: goal too early
st liege: red card and already 0-2 up
blackburn: poor game and not open enough
hamilton: goals too early

Out of them, all had 2nd half goals, yet all i did was one quality trade and made more than what most would have if they had traded them all at HT. Thats my style of trading.

Another interesting thing was thats the first LTD where trading worked better than set and forget, Leicester equalising would have made that a loser. Looking forward to once we hit a decent data size too see the difference. My initial thought right now is set and forget will work better purely because of the time of entry. But thats a hypothesis and not facts hence why we must keep tracking rather than just assume.

Looking to get involved in the tests now that they are entering days 3/4, for me thats when i think ill be looking to trade tests more often. I monitored how the markets worked last few days and i dont see the potential in the early stuff markets havent moved much since the start at all. So while active traders may be wracking up small wins here and there the big moves havent happened yet and thats when im looking to enter (thats just my style)

[A Former User]

Had a fantastic xmas and i hope you lot did too

26/12 SHG:

leicester
villa
arsenal
city
club brugge
leuven
st liege
blackburn
hamilton

Sat tucking into a beer and all the sweets, was amazing to see family and 2020 although has been a tough time for most and is hard to speak positively about, it was a life changing year for me turning full time and building my own side project because of it which is just going from strength to strength. Hope everyone has a good end to the year and we can smash 2021.

[A Former User]

Not sure if i had a brain freeze or lack of sleep is taking its toll but clearly didnt credit today enough with the amount of good games on.

Napoli vs Torino:
This game was on the 1.5 shg list so i was monitoring it anyway. Torino took the lead and i waited to see if lozano and co would come on and strengthen that lineup. They did so i decided to watch and see if torino would still be dangerous on the counter, i think more so in italy as defences can totally shut up shop and defend in the box only. That didnt happen here and torino did try get a 2nd when counters happened. So i entered late on and bagged the insigne goal (key player), great start to the night and good price too.

Everton vs Man utd:
I actually did know this game was on as planned to watch it but not trade it, thought it became too good an opportunity not to. The key players all on the pitch, good price, good stats and a good scoreline to enter all ticking the boxes. Actually thought pogba and fernandes both bossed that midfield (im a spurs fan so dont hound me for thinking im a united fan) rashford and martial both coming on strengthened the attack with pace late on and i felt that gave the edge and also intent from united to go all out for that goal. Interesting that both subs being key players both contributed to both goals.

Cracking night and last trades before xmas, just a quick side note for everyone to go have a merry xmas dont think about trading at all for the next 48 hrs and enjoy it. And ill se you all back on here boxing day for a jam packed trading day of cricket and football